There are signs of a new mobilisation about to begin but trying to get 150k new 'mobiks' to UKR by Feb 24 is just going to lead to all the same problems they had with the first wave, maybe even more.
University students and staff are next on the list.
@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ Russia's Tomsk State University has secretly created a 'mobilisation station' for its students and staff, to be activated within two hours of receiving the codeword 'Lineyka-222' ('Ruler-222') from ...…
threadreaderapp.com
Interesting, but those mobiks will either need months of training, or will be thrown into the meat grinder untrained and will get killed like the rest of the mobiks to date. Even if they pulled the trigger tomorrow getting those new bodies to the front by Feb 24 is not physically possible.
Russia also runs a lot of political risk drafting university students. Especially in Moscow and St Petersburg. Those are mostly middle class Russians who have more connections and influence than the poor people living in deep poverty in the remote provinces. Start getting the kids of middle class Muscovites killed and that could trigger real destabilization at home.
Worth reading
Estonian MoD - Russia’s War in Ukraine: Myths and Lessons - DISCUSSION PAPER
Following Russia’s full-blown invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the EuroAtlantic community has been unanimously supporting Ukraine’s road to victory, but considerably diverging on Russia’s long-term threat. Some common narratives that have surfaced during the ongoing war suggest that Russia is conventionally weakened, has strategically failed, and is completely deterred by NATO – thereby, of little serious danger for the Allies. The following paper addresses these misconceptions.
and this
Ukraine can’t retake Crimea soon, Pentagon tells lawmakers in classified briefing
The assessment from the DoD officials is likely to anger Kyiv, which wants to recapture the peninsula from Russia.
The assessment from the DoD officials is likely to anger Kyiv, which wants to recapture the peninsula from Russia.
www.politico.com
I have thought that an assault on Crimea was going to be a long shot for this year. Ukraine could start a siege of Crimea by getting to the Azoz coast and making sea traffic in the Azoz and road traffic on the Kerch Bridge impossible. That would force the Russians to use ships to move supplies from Russian ports further south to the southernmost ports in Crimea. It would severely restrict their supply levels.
Political upheaval in Russia could end the war sooner too. If rebellion broke out in Russia, or wide scale among the troops in Ukraine, or both that could make continuing the war pretty much impossible and Russia would have to withdraw to try and quell the rebellion. he more losses Russia suffers on the battlefield, the more likely rebellion becomes.
Getting into Crimea would be difficult for the Ukrainians. The land routes are very limited.
Interesting point. Several things we don't know for certain. Could the U.S. have already signed a secret contract with Boeing/SAAB months ago and testing is complete and already some are ready for delivery? Is the contract not yet signed, but testing is already complete? Is no testing done nor contract signed yet? etc...
There may be some benefit of signaling or not to the Russians. Say GLSDBs are not ready yet nor will be for months - a bluff that they are ready now could cause Russia to pull its supply lines/depots/caches back in short order twice as far as they already are (just outside of HIMARS range these days). Or say GLSDBs are ready now - maybe better to have never announced them officially and let the Russians learn of them first while dozens of their assets are being simultaneously terminated in real time.
Final assembly is supposed to happen in Alabama where the rockets have been under disassembly for a while. I haven't seen any indication that there is any increased activity at that facility. The weapon is cobbled together from a bunch of off the shelf parts with one newly manufactured part to mate the rocket motor to the aerial bomb. Prototypes have been tested and it apparently works, but I have seen no indication that production of the mating part has begun.
The story was that Boeing was going to make the mating part, but Saab might be making them in secret.
If there are any GLSDBs complete, there are probably very few of them.
A peace proposal reportedly submitted on behalf of Biden in mid-January offered Russia territory the size of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region.
www.newsweek.com
Sounds like part of a Russian misinformation campaign.
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