Russia/Ukraine conflict

[petit_bateau]

This Afternoon, the U.S. announced that Ukraine will receive the Ground-launched Small-diameter Bomb (GLSDB):

Analysis: Ukraine's new weapon will force a Russian shift, article with gallery | REUTERS

"The new weapon, the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), will allow Ukraine's military to hit targets at twice the distance reachable by the rockets it now fires from the U.S.-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). If included as expected in an upcoming weapons-aid package first reported by Reuters, the 151 km (94 mile) GLSDB will put all of Russia's supply lines in the east of the country within reach, as well as part of Russian-occupied Crimea."​

That Reuters article is just another regurgitation of speculation that USA might send GLSDB.

Has there actually been any subsequent confirmation (I haven't seen any) or are we still in the speculation loop ?

(When they might actually be through testing/manufacturing and deliverable is another thing, though I am sure the project team will be doing their best)

 

[nativewolf]

Just speculating on speculation from what i see. Last year the scuttlebutt was it was just out of planning.

 

[madodel]

That sounds like pure fiction to me.

Perhaps they got Joe Biden confused with Elon Musk.

 

[petit_bateau]

That Reuters article is just another regurgitation of speculation that USA might send GLSDB.

Has there actually been any subsequent confirmation (I haven't seen any) or are we still in the speculation loop ?

(When they might actually be through testing/manufacturing and deliverable is another thing, though I am sure the project team will be doing their best)

AP also running the GLSDB speculation with a firmer slant, my bold

"After months of agonizing, the U.S has agreed to send longer-range bombs to Ukraine as it prepares to launch a spring offensive to retake territory Russia captured last year, U.S. officials said Thursday, confirming that the new weapons will have roughly double the range of any other offensive weapon provided by America. The U.S. will provide ground-launched small diameter bombs as part of a $2.17 billion aid package it is expected to announce Friday, several U.S. officials said. "

US to send Ukraine longer-range bombs in latest policy reversal

The U.S. will provide ground-launched small diameter bombs as part of a $2.17 billion aid package the U.S. is expected to announce Friday.

www.militarytimes.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

(When they might actually be through testing/manufacturing and deliverable is another thing, though I am sure the project team will be doing their best)

There's scarcely any R&D to do on this project. They are literally taking an existing weapons system now deployed with the USAF (the 'glide bomb' conversion kit for GBU-53s), and marrying it to a new launcher (the also-existing rocket motor from the MLRS projectiles).

GBU-53/B StormBreaker - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And they've been DOING this 'hardly-any-R&D' for over 8 years now! Typically mil/gov't waste and phoney timelines. If this was urgent, they could knock it together over a weekend, and have in in Baghdad on Monday morning...

Yes, this Youtube video was published in 2015: (and that's just the PR part)

GLSDB: A gamechanger in ground artillery | (Mar 11, 2015)

 

[petit_bateau]

There's scarcely any R&D to do on this project. They are literally taking an existing weapons system now deployed with the USAF (the 'glide bomb' conversion kit for GBU-53s), and marrying it to a new launcher (the also-existing rocket motor from the MLRS projectiles).

GBU-53/B StormBreaker - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And they've do DOING this 'hardly-any-R&D' for over 8 years now! Typically mil/gov't waste and phoney timelines. If this was urgent, they could knock it together over a weekend, and have in in Baghdad on Monday morning...

Yes, this Youtube video was published in 2015: (and that's just the PR part)

GLSDB: A gamechanger in ground artillery | (Mar 11, 2015)

"prototyping is easy, production is difficult" said no-one, ever

 

[X Fan]

BND Person identified as principal in German espionage scandal who passed Ukr info to Russia:

Exclusive: German football coach unmasked as Russian double agent

The Telegraph can reveal the identity of the man at the heart of the biggest intelligence scandal to rock Europe in decades

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[iPlug]

GLSDBs are officially announced now:

The U.S. announced Friday it will send Ukraine the ground-launched small-diameter bomb, a weapon that can double Kyiv’s strike range, as part of its latest military aid package, worth $2.17 billion.

US pledges longer-range ‘small-diameter bomb’ for Ukraine

 

[wdolson]

GLSDBs are officially announced now:

The U.S. announced Friday it will send Ukraine the ground-launched small-diameter bomb, a weapon that can double Kyiv’s strike range, as part of its latest military aid package, worth $2.17 billion.

US pledges longer-range ‘small-diameter bomb’ for Ukraine

It's good news, but what's the timeline? I don't expect they will be coming all that quickly.

 

[trayloader]

If rebellion broke out in Russia, or wide scale among the troops in Ukraine, or both that could make continuing the war pretty much impossible and Russia would have to withdraw to try and quell the rebellion. he more losses Russia suffers on the battlefield, the more likely rebellion becomes.

While I love each single brilliant analysis from you here’s where I would disagree.
Should that happen Putin will move to sheer impredictability to avoid responsibility. A dirty bomb, blowing up the dam or a chemical incident is his desperate last joker. In that regard Elon was right. Before this system as a whole collapses they take it to the extreme.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

While I love each single brilliant analysis from you here’s where I would disagree.
Should that happen Putin will move to sheer impredictability to avoid responsibility. A dirty bomb, blowing up the dam or a chemical incident is his desperate last joker. In that regard Elon was right. Before this system as a whole collapses they take it to the extreme.

I think a lot of people inside Russia are aware of this. So hopefully last ditch efforts like these from the Russian Dictator and his minions won't be able to stop a rebellion against the Russian Dictator.

 

[iPlug]

Starting Sunday this weekend (Feb. 5) "or very soon thereafter" the G7 today agreed to implement two additional price caps on Russian refined petroleum products (already a cap on Russian oil price end of last year).

1) "premium-to-crude" petroleum products (diesel, kerosene, gasoline, etc) will be set at $100 per barrel
2) "discount-to-crude" petroleum products (fuel oil and similar) will be set at $45 per barrel


U.S., G7 announce new price caps on Russian petroleum products

 

[JRP3]

Apparently some of the Wagner criminal "volunteers" time is up and they are coming back to Russia as free men. Some of the populace is getting worried about their return to society.

 

[DayTrippin]

Apparently some of the Wagner criminal "volunteers" time is up and they are coming back to Russia as free men. Some of the populace is getting worried about their return to society.

No method in the Russian constitution to pardon anyone (as supposedly they are) unless Putin signs it. Do you really think Putin is going to waste all his time, or have is direct minions, wasting time pardoning what is basically cannon fodder?

Presidential Pardon

en.kremlin.ru

 

[JRP3]

No method in the Russian constitution to pardon anyone (as supposedly they are) unless Putin signs it. Do you really think Putin is going to waste all his time, or have is direct minions, wasting time pardoning what is basically cannon fodder?

Presidential Pardon

en.kremlin.ru

What do you think is going to happen then? They all get locked up again, showing all other potential "volunteers" that it's a lie?

 

[madodel]

Apparently some of the Wagner criminal "volunteers" time is up and they are coming back to Russia as free men. Some of the populace is getting worried about their return to society.

That must be embarrassing that they survived despite the best efforts for them not to.

 

[madodel]

What do you think is going to happen then? They all get locked up again, showing all other potential "volunteers" that it's a lie?

I'm sure the FSB has ways to make sure they don't say anything and are never heard from again.

 

[wdolson]

While I love each single brilliant analysis from you here’s where I would disagree.
Should that happen Putin will move to sheer impredictability to avoid responsibility. A dirty bomb, blowing up the dam or a chemical incident is his desperate last joker. In that regard Elon was right. Before this system as a whole collapses they take it to the extreme.

That is possible. A rebellion scenario becomes unpredictable.

There are signs Putin is nervous about a military coup. The AA defenses installed in Moscow appear to be set up to defend against missile attack and Ukraine doesn't have any missiles capable of reaching Moscow. If the air force rebelled though, they could throw the missiles they are throwing at Ukraine at the Kremlin instead.

Rebellions can take many forms. Each scenario has its own wild cards. There are quite a few scenarios where Putin is out of the picture very early in a coup and then we are at risk for whatever whims his replacement decides to do. The hardliners would probably decide to nuke Ukraine until it glowed.

There are also scenarios where Putin remains in power, but internal problems are spinning out of control to a point where Ukraine becomes a lot priority for him. It's also possible he or someone orders the use of weapons of mass destruction only to have the order disobeyed.

Apparently some of the Wagner criminal "volunteers" time is up and they are coming back to Russia as free men. Some of the populace is getting worried about their return to society.

Some of those criminals were just poor sots convicted of everyday crimes, but some are pretty dangerous. One guy who did not volunteer but said he was thinking about it for the spring is Russia's Hannibal Lector. Really twisted and weird guy.

 

[Eugene Ash]

Apparently some of the Wagner criminal "volunteers" time is up and they are coming back to Russia as free men. Some of the populace is getting worried about their return to society.

A lot of them are just 0.75, or 0.5 of a man. And this PR campaign is a result of survivor bias. Tens of thousands are just dead near Bakhmut. Wounded in useless unjustified war will weigh on RU society for many decades, akin to WWII. Ptsd, violence, alcoholism, in addition to chronic corruption. What a waste of potential...

 

[Just a Reader]

Germany got all that grief about tank deliveries, yet EU partners hesitate to firmly commit to delivering their share all of a sudden. It's always comfortable to hide behind Germany, after all.