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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Second Russian air defense system and a few Russian boats gone. Let’s keep supporting Ukraine; they’re doing well.


And Tor is supposed to keep you hidden. (Joke about the browser in case anyone didn't get it.)

Essentially, don't brag about your state of the art AA system in a video with geo tagging turned on. Especially when you're within range of enemy artillery.

I've been reading translations of what Igor Girkin has to say. He's a Russian milblogger who is rabidly pro-Russia (he even was part of a bring back the monarchy movement at one point), but unlike a lot of Russian's talking about the war, he's a realist. What he has said about Russian capabilities in the past have always panned out on the battlefield.

Wartranslated had what appears to be an interview with Girkin published yesterday
 
I think there's probably too much concern over the Russian hardliners adjacent to Putin. First, if Vlad were to drop dead tomorrow, I'm not at all convinced that one of the hardliners would assume power. And even if one did, I believe most of them to be 95% bluster and talk, and 5% action. I think they'd look to protect their own interests rather than channel some latent mongol instinct from millennia past. The last thing I worry about is Putin losing power or dying.

Of course the hardliners in Russia believe that western leaders are all bluster and won't take action if Russia crosses the line.
 
I think there's probably too much concern over the Russian hardliners adjacent to Putin. First, if Vlad were to drop dead tomorrow, I'm not at all convinced that one of the hardliners would assume power. And even if one did, I believe most of them to be 95% bluster and talk, and 5% action. I think they'd look to protect their own interests rather than channel some latent mongol instinct from millennia past. The last thing I worry about is Putin losing power or dying.
This is where You take on a a naive position.
That is kongruent to the Russioan/Mongolian soul described some posts ago. If the west is just scared enuff they will back down projected to this 20 people visible with heavy mental illnesses. This whole clique is out of their mind. Incurable, dating back to Jelzin. The last sane character was Gorbatchev.
This system with thousands of profiteurs will not implode or collapse by revolution. Human behaviour is insatiable.
They will not "scale back" by peaceful means.
Heck even a mere diet brings people to their limits. And You expect a peaceful phase one Putin is out of the game? C´mon....
 
He is far too long winded and revenue focused (long long) but finally he makes some points. I usually have to skip about 80% to get to a point where he actually is saying anything, otherwise it is just a recap and regurgitated content. Here his point is that in addition to mobility west could Consider supplying more artillery And long range weapons. He does not make a tremendous cogent argument for why....which is funny because he spent an hour on a video.
 
This is where You take on a a naive position.
That is kongruent to the Russioan/Mongolian soul described some posts ago. If the west is just scared enuff they will back down projected to this 20 people visible with heavy mental illnesses. This whole clique is out of their mind. Incurable, dating back to Jelzin. The last sane character was Gorbatchev.
This system with thousands of profiteurs will not implode or collapse by revolution. Human behaviour is insatiable.
They will not "scale back" by peaceful means.
Heck even a mere diet brings people to their limits. And You expect a peaceful phase one Putin is out of the game? C´mon...


I am with Smokey on this one, I think there is more State than people assume and If Putin drops dead things may resolve faster and less violently than some assume. We will see. People overnight becoming experts on Russian culture...if it were that easy...SMH.
 
I am with Smokey on this one, I think there is more State than people assume and If Putin drops dead things may resolve faster and less violently than some assume. We will see. People overnight becoming experts on Russian culture...if it were that easy...SMH.

The only predictable thing is that the next leader will have hair.
 
I could use some help here. YouTube's AI has seen fit to put a couple of this guy's videos on my feed. You have to get past the interviewer's love fest but this particular interview touches quickly on an awful lot of topics. The comments on Japan's trade negotiations with the US, the US' role on the high seas since WWII and China's population issues are wildly out of step with most of what I see and yet seem to be based on some simple to understand foundations. He most certainly paints a completely different picture for the next ten years.

Lastly, his comments that Russia's military efforts are always a SS at the start until they mobilize a gazillion people and throw them at the problem is concerning especially in light of the Wagner zombie post a little ways back in the thread.
 
"Fighting Wagner is like a ‘zombie movie’ says Ukrainian soldier
Published 9:57 AM EST, Wed February 1, 2023
“We were fighting for about 10 hours in a row. And it wasn’t like just waves, it was uninterrupted. [..."

I made this point about the zombie-like nature of the Russian attack on Bakhmut back on Oct 30, 2022. Somehow, 'World War Z' seems appropriate (WFT do Ruzzians paint a 'Z' on their vehicles?)


mobilize a gazillion people and throw them at the problem is concerning especially in light of the Wagner zombie post a little ways back in the thread.

This is not a new comparison if you've been reading this thread. The siege of Bakhmut is over 100 days of wasteful carnage now. The Russian war criminals in the Kremlin must be held accountable in The Hague.
 
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He is far too long winded and revenue focused (long long) but finally he makes some points. I usually have to skip about 80% to get to a point where he actually is saying anything, otherwise it is just a recap and regurgitated content. Here his point is that in addition to mobility west could Consider supplying more artillery And long range weapons. He does not make a tremendous cogent argument for why....which is funny because he spent an hour on a video.

It's a powerpoint presentation, you can shut off should, and fast forward and read all the slides if you need to move through things quickly.

I listen because I like his sardonic wit.
 
This is where You take on a a naive position.
That is kongruent to the Russioan/Mongolian soul described some posts ago. If the west is just scared enuff they will back down projected to this 20 people visible with heavy mental illnesses. This whole clique is out of their mind. Incurable, dating back to Jelzin. The last sane character was Gorbatchev.
This system with thousands of profiteurs will not implode or collapse by revolution. Human behaviour is insatiable.
They will not "scale back" by peaceful means.
Heck even a mere diet brings people to their limits. And You expect a peaceful phase one Putin is out of the game? C´mon....
No, I just don't think any of us can predict who might come to power after Putin with any accuracy. Never said anything about a peaceful phase, though that would certainly be welcome. Putin is just as mentally ill as any of them. I don't fear his departure.
 
I could use some help here. YouTube's AI has seen fit to put a couple of this guy's videos on my feed. You have to get past the interviewer's love fest but this particular interview touches quickly on an awful lot of topics. The comments on Japan's trade negotiations with the US, the US' role on the high seas since WWII and China's population issues are wildly out of step with most of what I see and yet seem to be based on some simple to understand foundations. He most certainly paints a completely different picture for the next ten years.

Lastly, his comments that Russia's military efforts are always a SS at the start until they mobilize a gazillion people and throw them at the problem is concerning especially in light of the Wagner zombie post a little ways back in the thread.
Most of the writings in his current book cover world history but he makes it somewhat interesting. His thoughts are pretty logical. Of course he makes some wild conclusions but I guess the future almost always brings about the unexpected. And after all futurist consultants get paid to think outside the box.

Up to this point we've heard so much talk of China being the certain future world leader as well as the dominant world currency but apparently they have their hands full with no shortage of issues.

He peels the onion with regard to each country's demographics, natural resources, sunlight/weather, water/rivers, farming, access to coastal waters, finance/debt, military, trade, risk for social unrest, education system, etc and therefore only a handful of countries will flourish - he says China is so far off the mark they will fall in 10 years.

I could see some of it happening but it would be foolish to think it's all certain.
 
I listen because I like his sardonic wit.
Agreed. But I also learn a lot from his videos. For example, Germany has been harshly criticized in this thread for not pulling their weight with regard to donating weapons to Ukraine. Perun showed that if you include their contributions through the EU then Germany is one of the top donors and is in the middle of the pack for per capita donations.
 
Most of the writings in his current book cover world history but he makes it somewhat interesting. His thoughts are pretty logical. Of course he makes some wild conclusions but I guess the future almost always brings about the unexpected. And after all futurist consultants get paid to think outside the box.

Up to this point we've heard so much talk of China being the certain future world leader as well as the dominant world currency but apparently they have their hands full with no shortage of issues.

He peels the onion with regard to each country's demographics, natural resources, sunlight/weather, water/rivers, farming, access to coastal waters, finance/debt, military, trade, risk for social unrest, education system, etc and therefore only a handful of countries will flourish - he says China is so far off the mark they will fall in 10 years.

I could see some of it happening but it would be foolish to think it's all certain.
Zeihan speaks very confidently about things he often doesn't understand very well. His stance on EVs and renewable energy in general makes me cringe.
 
Israel may ultimately partner more robustly with Ukraine by delivering some weapons/defense resources their way.

Israel/Netanyahu very recently said they would "consider" sending at least 1 Iron Dome defense battery to Ukraine. With Russia further cozying up to Iran, perhaps now with the planned building of an Iranian drone factory in Russia, that might do it.

Israel is considering sending its Iron Dome air defense system to Ukraine, Netanyahu says