The Iranian leader (and a delegation of business people) visited Xi this week and Xi announced a multi-day state visit to Iran soon. Strengthening ties between similar minded..
Strengthening ties, yes. Similar minded, NO! There is a long and mutually convenient between Russia and Iran, predating current regimes. Even in the Soviet era there was carefully cordial relations with Shah M Reza Pahlavi's regime. In 1973 I lived in Tehran and had among my colleagues one Russian diplomat (we shared musical interests, I supplied him with western albums he supplied me with Russian caviar and vodka although the iranian versions fo those were as good or better.).
Somehow many Westerners seem to understand alliances of convenience, despite conducting them every day themselves. The old Middle Eastern phrase remains globally: "Your enemy's enemies are your friends".
Iran, Syria, North Korea all are in this category for Russia, while China is not there, but is flirting and/or feuding with nearly every country. In some cases, such as Brazil, a positive trade balance with China gives opportunities of large proportion, hence is China's largest foreign investment flow at this moment. All the others are distinctly tactical for both Russia and China.
Ukraine is a difficult issue for most of those countries. Even now Brazil is being pressured to supply support for Ukraine, including consideration of SAAB Gripen materiel including ammunition. This last is interesting since there does not seem to be discussion elsewhere of Gripen supply to Ukraine. Without question Brazil logistics support through KC390 is being considered with the quick change to mobile hospital, tanker and freighter being major factors.
Other than in Brazilian discussions I have heard nothing nor read anything about this. Following President Lula meeting with President Biden these topics began here. Since then there allegedly ahed been numerous contacts with Ukrainian and EU people.
I have been reluctant to post this because there is no hard evidence of which I am aware. The local rumor mill, though, has been active, and this timing seems appropriate as all of Brasil is infatuated with the biggest and most flamboyant Carnival since pre-pandemic times. This would be far from the first time that momentous events were planned during Carnival distraction, when nobody notices large foreign entourages nor anything clandestine.
Checking registration numbers of non-commercial aircraft movements do give clues, and those being in Rio (GIG and SDU) rather than Brasilia (BSB) or São Paulo increases odds of ignoring them, so the normal correlations no longer imply causality.
