Russia/Ukraine conflict

[wdolson]

Hmm, no. I know that wikipedia is not the authoritative resource, but I think their definition for MBT is pretty good: a tank that had the firepower of a super-heavy tank, the armor protection of a heavy tank, and the mobility of a light tank, in a package with the weight of a medium tank.

The russian MBTs got into the heavy tank bracket of WWII equivalent only from T-72. Don't forget the prototypical MBT, PzKpfw V Panther, was 44t while still being considered a medium tank. Almost same weight as the heavy soviet IS-2 (46t) which was a heavy tank. The russian turret design was more weight efficient than the German ones, so generally the russian tanks of WWII were lighter (and faster) than the German equivalent.

Tanks went through a major growth spurt during WW II, especially German and Russian. The definition of light and heavy tank was fluid. The M-26 Pershing was a heavy tank weighing in at 46 tons. It entered service at the end of 1944. The M-46 Patton entered service in 1948 weighed 48 tons, it was classified as a medium tank. The M-47 was classified as a Main Battle Tank though it was only a moderate evolution of the M-46.

The British Centurion was classified as one of the first MBTs at 50 tons.

The distinction between a medium and heavy tank is more about mobility than weight. Heavy tanks in the WW II era were usually slow, ponderous tanks and medium tanks had much better mobility. The Panther was not as well armored as the Tiger, but it had a better power to weight ratio.

Basically the idea of having heavy and medium tanks was kind of redundant by the end of WW II and the Main Battle Tank was what came out of merging the two classes of tanks. Tanks have gotten massive over time and put heavy tanks of the WW II era to shame. Western MBTs are much heavier than Soviet/Russian designs. Most western tanks don't have an autoloader so they have an extra crew member in the turret and that requires the turret to be larger, adding to the overall weight.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Downing of a KA52. It looks like first ejection of rotors and then seat?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637576429625040896

 

[SageBrush]

I think I addressed the claims around Israeli territorial grabs

My point is that for the sake of keeping the peace, most countries around the world gave up their claims on territory that was lost before 1946.

It is nonsensical to ignore the distinction between lands lost by an aggressor, and lands lost by a country invaded. Are you now saying that UKR has to give up eastern UKR to keep Pax Europa ?

It is doubly nonsensical to ignore that the lands (Sinai) Israel did not initially return to Egypt after the 6 day war occurred in the context of Egypt blockading Israel and amassing 100k troops 40 miles from Israel's population centers.

It is doubly nonsensical to ignore that lands (the West Bank) that Israel did not return to Jordan after the 6 day war occurred in the context of Jordan shelling Israel as part of a joint war of conquest with Egypt and Syria against Israel and giving safe haven and support for a decade to terrorist operations against Israel. Compare to America's decade of war against Afghanistan for ONE terrorist incident.

It is doubly nonsensical to ignore that lands (the Golan heights) that Israel did not return to Syria after the 6 day war occurred in the context of Syria joining Egypt and Jordan in a coordinated war of conquest against Israel in the 6 day war, and more over, were lands that had been used for *years* to shell Israeli civilian settlements. Compare to America's decade of war against Afghanistan for ONE equivalent terrorist attack.

 

[X Fan]

A great tank article:

https://www.ausa.org/articles/irzyk-explains-performance-american-tanks-world-war-ii

 

[wdolson]

It is nonsensical to ignore the distinction between lands lost by an aggressor, and lands lost by a country invaded. Are you now saying that UKR has to give up eastern UKR to keep Pax Europa ?

Pretty much the opposite. Borders are pretty much frozen where they were either in 1946 or when a larger country broke up. The latter is true for Ukraine. The post WW II order believes that Ukraine's 1991 borders need to be respected and Russia is in the wrong for violating them.

It is doubly nonsensical to ignore that the lands (Sinai) Israel did not initially return to Egypt after the 6 day war occurred in the context of Egypt blockading Israel and amassing 100k troops 40 miles from Israel's population centers.

It is doubly nonsensical to ignore that lands (the West Bank) that Israel did not return to Jordan after the 6 day war occurred in the context of Jordan shelling Israel as part of a joint war of conquest with Egypt and Syria against Israel and giving safe haven and support for a decade to terrorist operations against Israel. Compare to America's decade of war against Afghanistan for ONE terrorist incident.

It is doubly nonsensical to ignore that lands (the Golan heights) that Israel did not return to Syria after the 6 day war occurred in the context of Syria joining Egypt and Jordan in a coordinated war of conquest against Israel in the 6 day war, and more over, were lands that had been used for *years* to shell Israeli civilian settlements. Compare to America's decade of war against Afghanistan for ONE equivalent terrorist attack.

Israel as it was sorted out after the British pulled out of Palestine was an incredibly difficult territory to defend effectively. They grabbed enemy territory to make the borders easier to defend.

From a military strategic perspective, they did what they needed to do to defend their country. From the post WW II world order point of view, they have taken territory from other countries.

The world politics surrounding Israel and Palestine is a minefield of problems. There are very strong opinions on both sides with many very strong and opposing opinions within each camp. Personally I don't have any answers.

Back in the post war period there was some talk of setting up a homeland for the Jewish people in Alaska. Basically the US would have carved out a piece of Alaska and that would have become a new country of Israel. I think somebody wrote an alternative history book about it, but I never read it. It would probably have been a more peaceful solution in the end, though the state has a very small population today for a reason.

For the sake of the moderators maybe we should steer away from discussions that get too close to politics surrounding Israel.

 

[wdolson]

A great tank article:

https://www.ausa.org/articles/irzyk-explains-performance-american-tanks-world-war-ii

yes it is a good article. The Germans had a light nimble armor force in the first years of WW II. It was a mixed force of Panzer Is, IIs, IIIs, and some Czech tanks, with a few early Panzer IVs that took France and the Low Countries in 1940. In many cases these were thin skinned tanks that could have been easily taken out by French armor if the French had reacted well. The French had more tanks and on average they were heavier with heavier armament than many of the German tanks.

By the invasion of Russia most of the lightly armed tanks had been retired and rebuilt into secondary uses like tank destroyers or SP artillery. Barbarosa was mostly conducted with Panzer IIIs and some Panzer IVs.

The Germans made a lot of use of breakthrough and exploitation in these battles. They captured a huge Soviet force at Kiev because of the high mobility of the armor.

The Panthers were able to do some exploitation in the Battle of the Ardennes. They were stopped at Bastongne which was a must take objective. But before getting there they were able to outrun most allied attempts to stop them. Panthers did have some decent mobility, but Tigers had a lot of mechanical problems. The Germans lost more to breakdowns and abandonment than to enemy action.

The Tiger was also an over engineered nightmare. They kept tinkering with the design on the production line so 10 tanks could be in production and they would all be different. Production was so slow that 500 Tiger Is were ordered in 1942 and only the initial production run was completed in two years and then they switched to the Tiger II.

The general in the article was over praising the 76mm gun a bit. It was better than the 75mm which was basically a field howitzer with low muzzle velocity, but there were better guns, even in the same caliber. The British 17 pounder was the best gun in that size range the western allies had. And the 75mm on the Panther was probably the best of that caliber used in the war. It was also a massive gun with a very long barrel and very high muzzle velocity.

The 88mm was highly vaunted, but the US 90mm was comparable. The 88mm was in service from the start of the war as a dual purpose AA and anti-tank field gun which was later adapted to vehicle use. The US 90mm was an AA only gun that only got adapted for vehicle use very late in the war. First used on a tank destroyer and finally on the Pershing. There is video of a Pershing shredding a Panther in Cologne in 1945. It scores several hits in short order.

Another thing the general didn't mention was the gyro stabilizer on the Sherman's gun. It was nowhere near what tanks like the Abrams has today, but the Sherman could fire more accurately on the move than just about any other tank of the era which was a big advantage in a running fight.

 

[SageBrush]

From the post WW II world order point of view, they have taken territory from other countries.

No. They have kept territory other invading countries lost in wars of conquest against Israel; and then only after years of terrorism and artillery/missle strikes on Israeli civilian populations.

As I said earlier, compare with America which invaded Afghanistan for two decades after ONE terrorist incident

 

[**BatteryLow**]

Putin to Xi: We will discuss your plan to end the war in Ukraine

China's leader, whose Ukraine plan has been criticised in the West, gets a warm welcome in Moscow.

www.bbc.com

 

[Skipdd]

I’m sure Russia would like to hit pause right about now..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637910297997373443

 

[SmokyPeat]

The EU is pledging to donate at least one million artillery shells to Ukraine over the next year.

EU gives Ukraine €2bn of ammunition after shell plea - BBC News

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba hailed the "game-changing decision" from the EU.

www-bbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[SageBrush]

The EU is pledging to donate at least one million artillery shells to Ukraine over the next year.

In case anybody else was wondering how much a shell costs

 

[wdolson]

I’m sure Russia would like to hit pause right about now..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637910297997373443

The thread linked is from October, but I guess it was just detailing the AA around that base. I wonder if these are the long range JDAMS? This would be the sort of mission for them. Maybe the S-400 will be targeted too?

The EU is pledging to donate at least one million artillery shells to Ukraine over the next year.

EU gives Ukraine €2bn of ammunition after shell plea - BBC News

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba hailed the "game-changing decision" from the EU.

www-bbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org

According to this 155mm shells cost about 3300 Euros each.
How much do 155 mm artillery rounds cost now? And how many are fired in Ukraine? - Technology Org

2 billion Euros will buy about 600K shells which is about 1600 per day or 50K a month. Ukraine said it needs 350K a month. The commitment definitely helps, but it's only 1/7th Ukraine's needs. The article says that the Russians are firing 50K rounds a day. That was true at the peak, their rate of fire now is down around 3000 a day, which pretty much matches their production capacity.

I didn't see a reference to 1 million shells in the article.

Spain has a factory tooled up for 155mm shells that was mostly idle at the beginning of the war and the Czech Republic has been taking a 152mm and 122mm factory from the cold war out of moth balls. Potentially Europe has a fair amount of production capacity.

The article said that the contracts for new shells won't be signed until September but they are going to spend 1 billion getting shells out of storage around the EU. Hopefully there are enough in storage. A lot of EU countries have been drawing down their stockpiles already.

 

[Alset Srotom]

My post asking the Mod to enlighten me why he thought I was ignorant was deleted and resulted in an official warning to not call others 'ignorant.'

Here

Thesaurus.com - The world's favorite online thesaurus!

Thesaurus.com is the world’s largest and most trusted online thesaurus for 25+ years. Join millions of people and grow your mastery of the English language.

www.thesaurus.com

are 53 synonyms.

Which are allowed, Mod ?
Am I an 'other', or can I say I am ignorant ? Or is that privilege reserved for you ?

They don't like when anyone discredits this wdolson fella, who has largely been wrong about every prediction he has made about the war, including that Russia would be completely out of artillery ammunition by May of 2022. He is some sort of self proclaimed strategist but literally is never right

 

[SageBrush]

2 billion Euros will buy about 600K shells which is about 1600 per day or 50K a month. Ukraine said it needs 350K a month. The commitment definitely helps, but it's only 1/7th Ukraine's needs.

Interesting, but it presumes a year spread. I'm sure UKR would like to wrap this up before winter sets in again

 

[stopcrazypp]

My post asking the Mod to enlighten me why he thought I was ignorant was deleted and resulted in an official warning to not call others 'ignorant.'

Here

Thesaurus.com - The world's favorite online thesaurus!

Thesaurus.com is the world’s largest and most trusted online thesaurus for 25+ years. Join millions of people and grow your mastery of the English language.

www.thesaurus.com

are 53 synonyms.

Which are allowed, Mod ?
Am I an 'other', or can I say I am ignorant ? Or is that privilege reserved for you ?

Mod action discussion maybe a rule violation, but I will just throw in a common sense point that might be helpful: the issue isn't necessarily use of a particular term, but rather a direct confrontational ad hominem on another forum member. This can make things emotionally charged and stray from discussing the facts of the argument objectively.

For example, you can say a particular public figure is ignorant (haven't seen that generally be a violation of the rules), but that's way different than directly calling a member ignorant, even though the same term was used in both cases.

 

[Skipdd]

The thread linked is from October, but I guess it was just detailing the AA around that base. I wonder if these are the long range JDAMS? This would be the sort of mission for them. Maybe the S-400 will be targeted too?



According to this 155mm shells cost about 3300 Euros each.
How much do 155 mm artillery rounds cost now? And how many are fired in Ukraine? - Technology Org

2 billion Euros will buy about 600K shells which is about 1600 per day or 50K a month. Ukraine said it needs 350K a month. The commitment definitely helps, but it's only 1/7th Ukraine's needs. The article says that the Russians are firing 50K rounds a day. That was true at the peak, their rate of fire now is down around 3000 a day, which pretty much matches their production capacity.

I didn't see a reference to 1 million shells in the article.

Spain has a factory tooled up for 155mm shells that was mostly idle at the beginning of the war and the Czech Republic has been taking a 152mm and 122mm factory from the cold war out of moth balls. Potentially Europe has a fair amount of production capacity.

The article said that the contracts for new shells won't be signed until September but they are going to spend 1 billion getting shells out of storage around the EU. Hopefully there are enough in storage. A lot of EU countries have been drawing down their stockpiles already.

Thanks, yes I saw that; perhaps I misunderstood as I thought the initial post was referring to something happening now and the post underneath was providing more info on where the base was located. I will read through the posts more tonight to see if there is anything further about it.

 

[JRP3]

A number of videos on Twitter claiming to show explosions in Crimea, #Crimea

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637913787087855618

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637905183257534467

 

[SmokyPeat]

I didn't see a reference to 1 million shells in the article.

Look again. It's mentioned in the first sentence of the article in bold print.

 

[Surfer of Life]

A number of videos on Twitter claiming to show explosions in Crimea, #Crimea

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637913787087855618

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637905183257534467

This is GREAT! We need to see this x 1,000. Surely we can ship enough drone components to Ukraine to help them to do orders of magnitude more of this.

 

[wdolson]

Interesting, but it presumes a year spread. I'm sure UKR would like to wrap this up before winter sets in again

I think so too. If Ukraine gets what it needs to conduct an offensive this spring and summer they may not be able to take Crimea this year, but they will have Crimea isolated and starving if they don't.

Look again. It's mentioned in the first sentence of the article in bold print.

Missed that, you're right. I wonder if the EU is getting a volume discount? They're getting them for 2000 Euros each if that's the total.

This is GREAT! We need to see this x 1,000. Surely we can ship enough drone components to Ukraine to help them to do orders of magnitude more of this.

I would think they are probably not drones, but they are using extended range JDAMS or GLSDBs. The JDAMS ER are known to be in the stockpile of many NATO nations and they have been promised to Ukraine. It's unknown how many GLSDBs have been made to date, but they are manufactured mating a surplus rocket motor to a widely available and semi-surplus bomb.

The advantage of both JDAMS and GLSDBs are that they travel faster than a drone. They are traveling closer in velocity to an artillery shell than an aircraft. That makes them hard to intercept.