Russia/Ukraine conflict

[SmokyPeat]

The US is going to refurbish a number of M1A1 tanks rather than, or in addition to building brand new M1A2 variants in order to expedite delivery. This seemed like the most sensible approach from the outset, imo.

US to fast-track Abrams tanks for Ukraine by choosing older version

The Pentagon is speeding up its delivery of M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, opting to send a refurbished older model.

www.defensenews.com

 

[wdolson]

The US is going to refurbish a number of M1A1 tanks rather than, or in addition to building brand new M1A2 variants in order to expedite delivery. This seemed like the most sensible approach from the outset, imo.

US to fast-track Abrams tanks for Ukraine by choosing older version

The Pentagon is speeding up its delivery of M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, opting to send a refurbished older model.

www.defensenews.com

I believe they still need to strip the uranium armor out. But if that's all they need to do the refurb will go a lot quicker.

I still feel the US and western allies should be taking the approach the US had with the M4 Sherman in WWII. It was not the best tanks, but they were available in large numbers and won the war through volume over quality. The article about US tank doctrine posted a couple of days ago addressed that.

There are a lot of M60s and even M48s in service around the world. Round up a bunch of those and send them to Ukraine. The countries that donate them become heroes in the international community and Ukraine gets a lot of tanks that are good enough for the jobs needed in an offensive. If you need a bunch of tanks to tear up enemy rear areas, take out lightly armored and unarmored vehicles and generally cause chaos. M-48s are just as good for that as Abrams or Leopards and they are much cheaper to run and keep running.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I don't know, I think a bunch of cast iron coffins would be about as useful as M-48s.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I believe they still need to strip the uranium armor out. But if that's all they need to do the refurb will go a lot quicker.

I still feel the US and western allies should be taking the approach the US had with the M4 Sherman in WWII. It was not the best tanks, but they were available in large numbers and won the war through volume over quality. The article about US tank doctrine posted a couple of days ago addressed that.

There are a lot of M60s and even M48s in service around the world. Round up a bunch of those and send them to Ukraine. The countries that donate them become heroes in the international community and Ukraine gets a lot of tanks that are good enough for the jobs needed in an offensive. If you need a bunch of tanks to tear up enemy rear areas, take out lightly armored and unarmored vehicles and generally cause chaos. M-48s are just as good for that as Abrams or Leopards and they are much cheaper to run and keep running.

M48 Patton - Wikipedia
M60 tank - Wikipedia

Looking through the operators list of both, I'm not seeing that many that might make sense to transfer from, and the US will likely have to backfill those operators anyways to get them to give up their tanks (negotiations that will delay things further). I'm not sure if logistically it would get tanks to Ukraine any faster and it'll be another tank type they have to learn. I think just giving them M1s outright makes a lot more sense in this case, especially given Ukraine can potentially transition to it (or a newer variant) in the longer term.

We actually have a lot of Abrams stock, it's just getting them ready takes some time.
M1 Abrams - Wikipedia

 

[wdolson]

I don't know, I think a bunch of cast iron coffins would be about as useful as M-48s.

They have been using T-64s and T-72s up to this point and they have done just fine. Ukrainian tank losses are much lower than Russia. Most of the M-48s in service around the world have been modernized and are probably better tanks than the old husks the Russians are trying to fight with. And tank on tank battles are rare anyway.

American made tanks have always been built for better survivability than Russian tanks. I don't blame the Ukrainians for wanting to retire their old T series tanks. When a T series tank gets a kill shot, it frequently results in the crew getting killed too. American tanks may lose a crew member, but the chances some or all get out is much higher.

Even if you don't care about the lives of your troops, vehicle survivability is a critical factor in force retention during a long war. If one side loses a tank crew every time they lose a tank, they need to train a new crew to replace the tank. If the other side maybe loses one tank crew member per tank lost, they can replace 3 out of 4 tanks with existing crews as long as they have the tanks available.

M48 Patton - Wikipedia
M60 tank - Wikipedia

Looking through the operators list of both, I'm not seeing that many that might make sense to transfer from, and the US will likely have to backfill those operators anyways to get them to give up their tanks. I'm not sure if logistically it would get tanks to Ukraine any faster and it'll be another tank type they have to learn. I think just giving them M1s outright makes a lot more sense in this case, especially given Ukraine can potentially transition to it (or a newer variant) in the longer term.

The M1s need to have the armor replaced, which is going to take time. Greece has a bunch of both. Turkey does too. Israel has a bunch of modernized M60s in storage. Egypt has around 800 M60s in storage. Morocco has a bunch of M48s and M60s.

Ukraine already has a handful of M60 engineering vehicles.

For a country not facing a serious threat right now (I would no advocate Taiwan giving up any of theirs), they can give up their tanks now in exchange for a sweet defense deal from the US for replacement equipment later.

Early M60s without upgrades are roughly equal in lethality to the T-62s showing up on the battlefield. Almost all in active service now have been upgraded and probably would outperform a T-72 in combat. Some of the upgrades like the Israeli tanks don't even look like M60s anymore they have been so extensively modified.

 

[stopcrazypp]

The M1s need to have the armor replaced, which is going to take time. Greece has a bunch of both. Turkey does too.

Greece has the lowest support for Ukraine in the EU and they are wary of giving too many weapons out due to tensions with Turkey (they have refused to give Leopard-2, even though they are giving some BMP-1 IFVs).
Eurobarometer: Greece Has The Lowest Support For Ukraine In The EU
Greece donates armored vehicles and ammunition to Ukraine

Getting from Turkey would also be problematic due to the tensions between Greece and Turkey (any backfill tank deal will be quite complicated from this), plus Turkey still is very wary of provoking Russia too much (a tank supply might easily cross that line).

Israel has a bunch of modernized M60s in storage.

Israel has long resisted supply of weapons to Ukraine since the start of the war, and have only recently allowed defensive weapons. I don't see a pathway to tanks anytime soon.
In first, Israel said to authorize sale of defensive military equipment to Ukraine

Egypt has around 800 M60s in storage.

Egypt's current president is quite tied with Russia, so I don't see this path being very viable either.
https://www.wrmea.org/north-africa/egypt-is-walking-a-tightrope-on-the-ukraine-crisis.html

Morocco has a bunch of M48s and M60s.

The Morocco path might be viable, but from articles describing their recent T72 agreement (which took a lot to get done), it seems it won't be an easy path either:
Tanks to Ukraine mark change in Moroccan foreign policy – DW – 01/26/2023

US just giving them M1s avoids all the politics in other countries and poking into other international conflicts that are unrelated to Ukraine. I'm not convinced by the time the US works out a deal with one of those other nations, it'll be any faster than just delivering the M1s.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I could see heavily modernized M60 tanks being of some value to the Ukrainians. Taiwan has done that sort of modernization to their M60s. I suspect they wouldn't be eager to part with them at present, though.

Military Watch Magazine

militarywatchmagazine.com

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

As posted elsewhere on this topic today:

Hmmmm.... perhaps the Russians could do their famous retreats again. Keep the hopes up and thus the money flowing, you know, away from the failing banks so that problem doesn't get fixed.


One could disagree with details but the overall picture at this point is very clear -- Russia and China are playing a tag team game against the US, one fights militarily and the other economically/politically. Both complement each other's moves.

Let me get this straight. The Russians have already lost half of the Ukrainian territory they conquered and now will give up even more to make sure the Ukrainians and the West get their hopes up? And the purpose of that is to keep aid money flowing, which somehow comes from failing banks? Which in turn keeps the banking crisis going? That’s some 4D chess there. If not, please explain what you meant.

As for China and Russia playing tag with the US, that’s like the blind helping the lame. Russia’s economic and military might and relevance are quickly fading; the eventual defeat in Ukraine will seal its fate. And China is a giant on clay feet: facing a demographic crash, an expanding technological embargo and eventually an economic disaster when its overreaches in its territorial expansion drive.

 

[**BatteryLow**]

Illusion:

US thought China would bring Russia to heel wrt Ukraine war via Xi's visit.

Reality:

Today, China officially called on the US to reconsider its position on the Ukraine war and stop adding fuel to the fire by escalating the war.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

The Dictator's newest 'Wunderwaffe'?...

​

"From Hibernation to Humiliation? Russia Brings T-54 Tanks Out of Retirement ​

[Posted: Yesterday (My edit.)]

The CIT team has obtained photographs of a train transporting military vehicles from Russia’s Far East. We identified the vehicles as Soviet-era T-54/55 series tanks: T-54s as well as tanks which may be either late T-54 or T-55 tanks were both on that train.

As we have established, the filmed train has recently departed from the town of Arsenyev, Primorsky region, where the 1295th Central Tank Repair and Storage Base is located. [..."

From Hibernation to Humiliation? Russia Brings T-54 Tanks Out of Retirement

The CIT team has obtained photographs of a train transporting military vehicles from Russia’s Far East. We identified the vehicles...

notes.citeam.org

Credit goes to (in Swedish):

UPPDATERAS: Extrema ryska förluster, inga framgångar vid fronten - Ryssland blir en råvarukoloni till Kina - ryskt krigsbrott på detaljerad film - terrorbombning mot Kyjiv och elevhem dödar tre

Ryssland tog extrema förluster under gårdagen men nådde inga framgångar vid fronten. Terrorbombning mot Kyjiv dödade tre och skadade sju när bland annat ett elevhem träffades. CNN har publicerat ett exempel på ryskt krigsbrott där ryska soldater skjuter mot civila, vilket fångades i detalj på en ukr

cornucopia.se

 

[Dangerous Fish]

A significant nember of reconnaissance aircraft close to Kaliningrad showing up currently. More at one time than I've spotted in a while....

RFR7040 = UK BOEING P-8 Poseidon
JAKE11 = US Boeing RC-135W Rivet Joint
REDEYE6 = US Boeing E-8C Joint STARS
RRR7222 = UK Boeing RC-135W Rivet Joint
NATO03 = Lux. Boeing E-3A Sentry

NATO02 (Boeing E-3A Sentry) also circling over the North Sea
There's also been a B52 (NOBLE31) flying out of Spain and making it's presence known over Europe recently. Currently messing around over Italy.

 

[**BatteryLow**]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638240670530904065

He could have bought a Tesla. Just saying

 

[Surfer of Life]

Illusion:

US thought China would bring Russia to heel wrt Ukraine war via Xi's visit.

Reality:

Today, China officially called on the US to reconsider its position on the Ukraine war and stop adding fuel to the fire by escalating the war.

Firstly, nobody here thought that,
Second, off to Ignore you go!

That’s the only troll food you’re getting from me.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638240670530904065

He could have bought a Tesla. Just saying

Nice try, but that car belongs to Gennady Vatsak, who owns a business producing confectionery. Same livery and license plate.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

The Dictator's newest 'Wunderwaffe'?...

​

"From Hibernation to Humiliation? Russia Brings T-54 Tanks Out of Retirement ​

[Posted: Yesterday (My edit.)]

The CIT team has obtained photographs of a train transporting military vehicles from Russia’s Far East. We identified the vehicles as Soviet-era T-54/55 series tanks: T-54s as well as tanks which may be either late T-54 or T-55 tanks were both on that train.

As we have established, the filmed train has recently departed from the town of Arsenyev, Primorsky region, where the 1295th Central Tank Repair and Storage Base is located. [..."

From Hibernation to Humiliation? Russia Brings T-54 Tanks Out of Retirement

The CIT team has obtained photographs of a train transporting military vehicles from Russia’s Far East. We identified the vehicles...

notes.citeam.org

Credit goes to (in Swedish):

UPPDATERAS: Extrema ryska förluster, inga framgångar vid fronten - Ryssland blir en råvarukoloni till Kina - ryskt krigsbrott på detaljerad film - terrorbombning mot Kyjiv och elevhem dödar tre

Ryssland tog extrema förluster under gårdagen men nådde inga framgångar vid fronten. Terrorbombning mot Kyjiv dödade tre och skadade sju när bland annat ett elevhem träffades. CNN har publicerat ett exempel på ryskt krigsbrott där ryska soldater skjuter mot civila, vilket fångades i detalj på en ukr

cornucopia.se

Meant to just post the second tweet below, but don't know how to isolate just that one...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638489148414722049

 

[cusetownusa]

Ty

Illusion:

US thought China would bring Russia to heel wrt Ukraine war via Xi's visit.

Reality:

Today, China officially called on the US to reconsider its position on the Ukraine war and stop adding fuel to the fire by escalating the war.

Lol. Putin is that you? Or just another Troll?

 

[lolachampcar]

A significant nember of reconnaissance aircraft close to Kaliningrad showing up currently. More at one time than I've spotted in a while....

View attachment 920100
RFR7040 = UK BOEING P-8 Poseidon
JAKE11 = US Boeing RC-135W Rivet Joint
REDEYE6 = US Boeing E-8C Joint STARS
RRR7222 = UK Boeing RC-135W Rivet Joint
NATO03 = Lux. Boeing E-3A Sentry

NATO02 (Boeing E-3A Sentry) also circling over the North Sea
There's also been a B52 (NOBLE31) flying out of Spain and making it's presence known over Europe recently. Currently messing around over Italy.

I love that they are all blasting out ADS-B out data. I wonder if the Russians are doing the same. Do you ever see allied fighters outputting ADS-B extended squitter?

 

[nativewolf]

I believe they still need to strip the uranium armor out. But if that's all they need to do the refurb will go a lot quicker.

I still feel the US and western allies should be taking the approach the US had with the M4 Sherman in WWII. It was not the best tanks, but they were available in large numbers and won the war through volume over quality. The article about US tank doctrine posted a couple of days ago addressed that.

There are a lot of M60s and even M48s in service around the world. Round up a bunch of those and send them to Ukraine. The countries that donate them become heroes in the international community and Ukraine gets a lot of tanks that are good enough for the jobs needed in an offensive. If you need a bunch of tanks to tear up enemy rear areas, take out lightly armored and unarmored vehicles and generally cause chaos. M-48s are just as good for that as Abrams or Leopards and they are much cheaper to run and keep running.

and as we speak the t55/54 are rolling from Siberia to the front. Russia is literally pulling out 80 year old tanks models from storage. Frankly, that was a great tank for it's time. Simple, fast, good cannon. I would think a Bradly bushmaster with AP rounds would actually pierce that armor.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

I love that they are all blasting out ADS-B out data. I wonder if the Russians are doing the same. Do you ever see allied fighters outputting ADS-B extended squitter?

I see the odd Russian military plane on there but nothing that looks particularly interesting.
There's a Russian AN-148 over the Baltic Sea right now, possibly heading for Kaliningrad.

There are usually a couple of F-16s or Eurofighters above UK/Europe on training. Plenty more are invisible though, judging by the number of Stratotankers in the air at any one time.

 

[JRP3]

Attacks in Zaporizhzhia

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638498087051116545