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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Is Prigozhin calling for a rebellion?
Guessing that there could be 'nuances' 'lost in translation'... The Russian language allegedly enabling 'four(?) different ways of lying' and all of that...
EDIT: Since it's 'just' audio, maybe it's not even him talking. Maybe it's an impersonator or some such and this was posted through some kind of 'hacking operation'...
Anyways... For what it's worth:
Guessing that there could be 'nuances' 'lost in translation'... The Russian language allegedly enabling 'four(?) different ways of lying' and all of that...
EDIT: Since it's 'just' audio, maybe it's not even him talking. Maybe it's an impersonator or some such and this was posted through some kind of 'hacking operation'...
Anyways... For what it's worth:
Last edited:
Rumors leading up to this appear to have been true:
As far as I am concerned he left a few days ago, can’t believe he would stick around. Hopefully he pulls the team back to Kursk and leaves the smo to the Russian mod
Ukraine just got another batch of Mig_29s. The Polish MiGs have provisions to carry NATO weapons and the Slovakian MiGs had all their avionics upgraded around 2008 with American standard equipment. Ukraine is now able to fire anything the NATO MiGs could fire. Someone may have slipped NATO air to air missiles into one of the air packages and the media didn't notice.
Ukraine's air force is small and it's not going to get all that big. They don't have the time to train new pilots, even if they got every spare F-16 in the world. But it is good news that the new MiGs are making life difficult for the Russians.
Russia has been afraid of air losses thus far. If the Ukrainian AF now has some real bite, they will be more cautious.
Putin ordered Prigozhin to stay and told him if he pulls out of Bakhmut he will be tried for treason. Instead of throwing him out a window Putin is trying to get the Ukrainians to kill him.
Prigozhin says that Putin told him to stay but he says lots of things. He also said he was out of ammo and last night the russians shot so many rounds the city was on fire.
Clearly Wagner was not out of ammo
Sadly russia snuck some drones into western Ukraine
They have been aiming at civilian infrastructure in the past but maybe now have wised up. Attempting to attack the patriot battery with the hypersonic missile was not stupid.
Quite likely that Russia lost 5 aircraft in last 2 days. All inside Russia or Crimea. That's indicative of a new weapon, it has been hypothesized AIM missiles. We'll see.
There's a 7th floor window with his name on it.
I had heard he was allergic to ricin.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
And as has been pointed out numerous times over and over and over again in this thread the Ukrainian Air Force and the Ukrainian armed forces completely disagree.
Also: I doesn't even have to be Ukrainian pilots.
Opinion: A Mercenary Air Force for Ukraine? It’s not as Far-fetched as it Sounds
The idea of leasing an air force to Ukraine could solve several current challenges on the issue of military support. And some discussions have reportedly already taken place.
www.kyivpost.com
Here's a Ukrainian pilot that says he can learn the F-16 in 3 months:
Ukraine fighter pilot: I could learn to fly western jet within three months
In plea for military aid, Vadym Voroshylov explains why modern planes are needed for defence against Russia
www.theguardian.com
And here's the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba praising the F-16's nose gear:
Kuleba once again calls on partners to provide Ukraine with F-16 aircraft
After the Russian shelling on the night of May 9, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called for more air defense systems and F-16s to cover the skies together. â Ukrinform.
www.ukrinform.net
I guess this ruins their vacation plans for a cruise on the Volga.
ICC Court Members Will Be Wanted in Russia for Issuing Putin Arrest Warrant
Russian Investigative Committee intends to place on its wanted list ICC prosecutors and judges who issued the warrant for Putin based on alleged war crimes.
ICC Court Members Will Be Wanted in Russia for Issuing Putin Arrest Warrant
Russian Investigative Committee intends to place on its wanted list ICC prosecutors and judges who issued the warrant for Putin based on alleged war crimes.
I personally don't get the reticence to send the f16. However, it is also clear that the missile defense system of Ukraine needed bulking up because without that Ukraine was going to be in trouble with the Russian Air wings able to operate against a depleted Ukrainian missile defense shield.And as has been pointed out numerous times over and over and over again in this thread the Ukrainian Air Force and the Ukrainian armed forces completely disagree.
Also: I doesn't even have to be Ukrainian pilots.
Opinion: A Mercenary Air Force for Ukraine? It’s not as Far-fetched as it Sounds
The idea of leasing an air force to Ukraine could solve several current challenges on the issue of military support. And some discussions have reportedly already taken place.
Here's a Ukrainian pilot that says he can learn the F-16 in 3 months:
Ukraine fighter pilot: I could learn to fly western jet within three months
In plea for military aid, Vadym Voroshylov explains why modern planes are needed for defence against Russia
And here's the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba praising the F-16's nose gear:
Kuleba once again calls on partners to provide Ukraine with F-16 aircraft
After the Russian shelling on the night of May 9, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called for more air defense systems and F-16s to cover the skies together. â Ukrinform.
If the key point is to provide Ukraine ability to operate throughout Ukraine without fear of Russian air intervention (russias greatest tangible difference maker) than the USA or someone else has provided something very effective indeed. Rather than argue about how to get it done...the key thing is this appears to have done so in spades.
4 losses today, 9 air crew $200 mln in airframes. The craft were operating close to ukraine and the helicopters were back 30 miles or so. The most credible explanation is that at least 1 helicopter was providing EW to the su34 that was on an attack and the su35 was covering the su34. Conflicting reports that both helicopters were EW. No idea if the helicopter yesterday had EW packages or not but it sure does not appear to have been an engine failure.
Big takeaway is that all the aircrews failed to eject. So the warning systems failed on the planes. The russian airforce is not that large, this news will be spreading like wildfire throughout the airforce and the pilots will be very leary. So in terms of shaping...this was excellent as it pushes the Russian airforce back from the contested fighting zones. They can maybe launch glide bombs but it will be tricky.
Other interesting notes on the aviation losses.
They occur in 3 different geographic areas. Crimea, 30 miles inside Russia and within 5 miles of the Ukrainian border but in Russia. The aircraft pilots did not eject.
First time I know of for losses to be in Russia in quite a long time. Other losses were from air-air engagement. No reports of Ukrainian aircraft in Russia today. The fact that the pilots did not eject - very interesting.
Also wreckage from the strikes in Luhansk yesterday seem to positively confirm it as a Storm Shadow.
They occur in 3 different geographic areas. Crimea, 30 miles inside Russia and within 5 miles of the Ukrainian border but in Russia. The aircraft pilots did not eject.
First time I know of for losses to be in Russia in quite a long time. Other losses were from air-air engagement. No reports of Ukrainian aircraft in Russia today. The fact that the pilots did not eject - very interesting.
Also wreckage from the strikes in Luhansk yesterday seem to positively confirm it as a Storm Shadow.
Tiger
Active Member
Tiger
Active Member
Just a thought: what if, eventually, when the war is over, as a prerequisite for lifting the sanctions on Russia, it would be required that they establish "normal" human rights in their legal system? Similar to what is required for a country to join EU. Requirements on corruption, human rights, etc. in reality and in the word of law. If Balkanization happens, divide and conquer might be even easier.
Might also be NASAMS, rather than NATO-compatible MiGs, since it fires AIM-120's in a surface to ground role, depending on how far these hits were from Ukraine controlled area for it to be detected and launched from? Apparently Ukraine has at least one of these. First gen NASAMS has a 120km radar range, with 30 to 50 km missile range depending on which particular flavor of missiles it has been loaded with. Much shorter range than being air launched, but depending on where it occurred, it's another possibility.
I wonder if the missiles for NASAMS are directly interchangeable with being launched from aircraft, or if they're purpose built. It would be amusing if they weren't given air-to-air missiles because reasons, but realized they could just swipe the ammo for the NASAMS they were given and air launch them from their MiGs...
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Why divide and conquer? I don't see any good coming out of that. Otherwise I totally agree. I'm guessing they should also be allowed to increase gas and oil exports in order to pay war reparations to UKR. And also to help 'combat' high energy prices/inflation in the Democratic West. But I'm no economic expert so there may very well be stuff I'm missing here...
There are other forces than Wagner there. It may have been the VDV unit that is there.
And as has been pointed out numerous times over and over and over again in this thread the Ukrainian Air Force and the Ukrainian armed forces completely disagree.
Also: I doesn't even have to be Ukrainian pilots.
Opinion: A Mercenary Air Force for Ukraine? It’s not as Far-fetched as it Sounds
The idea of leasing an air force to Ukraine could solve several current challenges on the issue of military support. And some discussions have reportedly already taken place.
Here's a Ukrainian pilot that says he can learn the F-16 in 3 months:
Ukraine fighter pilot: I could learn to fly western jet within three months
In plea for military aid, Vadym Voroshylov explains why modern planes are needed for defence against Russia
And here's the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba praising the F-16's nose gear:
Kuleba once again calls on partners to provide Ukraine with F-16 aircraft
After the Russian shelling on the night of May 9, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called for more air defense systems and F-16s to cover the skies together. â Ukrinform.
Ukraine started the war with about 40 Mig-29s and about 50 other fixed wing combat aircraft. If they plumb the depths of their retired combat pilots they might be able to scrape together about 100 fighter pilots if they're lucky. A number of the retired pilots are not going to be in good enough health to fly fighters in combat.
That's the pool they have to work with. When I said they don't have time to train the pilots, I meant they don't have time to train pilots from scratch. That takes a couple of years. Take shortcuts and all you are going to do is get a pilot killed and a plane lost in their first minutes in combat. That was true in WW II and it's even more true today.
There has been talk about something akin to the AVG from WW II, but there are problems with that too. First off they will be called mercenaries by the Russians and the Russians will use it as proof they are actually fighting NATO. Convincing the Russian people they are actually fighting NATO is Putin's only way to galvanize the Russian people behind him. So far he's losing that PR battle because there is no actual proof he can trot out.
Secondly, if the pilots are drawn from retired military pilots, they run into the same problem Ukraine has drawing on their retired pilots. Taking the g forces fighter pilots need to endure is a young person thing and the pilot needs to stay in top condition to handle it. G tolerance declines with age and declining fitness.
Russia knows where the old rocket fuel is stored and they know Ukraine isn't using it. The first strike was on a storage facility for ICBM fuel and those were all decommissioned by Ukraine. Hitting those facilities makes a big light show and the Russians can claim they are taking out ammunition stored for the offensive.
In reality most of Russia's intelligence on Ukraine is a year old and they don't have a clue where Ukraine is storing their combat munitions. About the only thing guaranteed is that any facility that held useful weapons of ammunition for this war has been moved or used up since the war began. The only facilities that are in known locations are things the Ukrainians don't want, but haven't gotten around to disposizing of yet.
About the Russian planes shot down. A curious thing is Ukraine has not claimed those aircraft. They have usually been quick to claim Russian air shoot downs.
Tiger
Active Member
Think about it. If the world was a single country, if it fell to tyranny, the whole world falls into tyranny. Instead, when there are many different countries, they compete against each other (think like enterprises), and the fittest win. Thus Balkanization is a good thing. There are benefits to limited union of countires (like the EU or EEA).
petit_bateau
Active Member
It is indeed odd that UKR is not claiming any RUS planes. Other losses are still high, esp artillery.
