New Perun video on use of cluster munitions and the role of artillery.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
In this thread we have often quoted historians who have explained the significance of Kievan Rus in the psyche of modern Russia. There are many references to Yemen but thus far none that demonstrate that Yemen itself has a role in the psyche of Islam that is quite closely analogous.
During the life of Mohammed Yemen was the philosophical, economic and cultural dominant force in what we call today the Arabian Peninsula. Arabic was more refined and academic quality was at that time largely centered on Yemen, with the Mareb dam one of the world's first major hydro projects. The famous Queen of Sheba was thought by many to be from a city in Yemen. When I lived there, in Sana'a, nearly all the glory had gone but some buildings remained from pre-Islamic times. Of course all that was destroyed multiple times and eventually became the disastrously impoverished place it is today. Thus the comparisons to Kievan Rus do break down. The Saudi Arabia obsession with Yemen, though, continues. Separately several major Saudi families have their roots in Yemen.
It is useful to understand that history from an Islamic view, just as it is equally useful to understand Russian history to perceive the significance of Ukraine.
Finally, if the NATO and other assistance to Ukraine falters at all, Ukraine wold be at high risk of becoming similar to Yemen. That path would be disaster for more than just Europe. So, here is that view of early Islam:
Mark Twain said it best:
“History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.”
During the life of Mohammed Yemen was the philosophical, economic and cultural dominant force in what we call today the Arabian Peninsula. Arabic was more refined and academic quality was at that time largely centered on Yemen, with the Mareb dam one of the world's first major hydro projects. The famous Queen of Sheba was thought by many to be from a city in Yemen. When I lived there, in Sana'a, nearly all the glory had gone but some buildings remained from pre-Islamic times. Of course all that was destroyed multiple times and eventually became the disastrously impoverished place it is today. Thus the comparisons to Kievan Rus do break down. The Saudi Arabia obsession with Yemen, though, continues. Separately several major Saudi families have their roots in Yemen.
It is useful to understand that history from an Islamic view, just as it is equally useful to understand Russian history to perceive the significance of Ukraine.
Finally, if the NATO and other assistance to Ukraine falters at all, Ukraine wold be at high risk of becoming similar to Yemen. That path would be disaster for more than just Europe. So, here is that view of early Islam:
Mark Twain said it best:
“History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.”
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Dumbass post of the week.
NATO stockpiles decimated? Source please, cite the reference material. Because everything I can find shows that Uncle Sam is STILL ONLY sending their "hand me downs" and "left overs" to Ukraine. Not new kit, not most recent gen stuff (you do know that M1A1 Abrams are 2 gens behind? You do know that the USA stopped using Bradly IFVs years ago? - last one was produced in 1995)
You sir (and I use that term VERY loosely) are nothing but a Russian shill. A shill that can't even make coherent arguments backed by facts.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
No doubt by some, but is it the prevailing view ? I'm under the impression she hailed from Ethiopia/Somalia. If I am not mistaken, one part of that area is populated by people who are strikingly beautiful. They are tall and thin, and have facial features similar to the Yemenis. From antiquity there has been active trade routes between Southern India, the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula, and Ethiopia/Somalia. It has made for a rather distinct ethnic and cultural group derived from the areas bordering the Arabian Sea.
And Foodies, take note. The cuisine is delicious. Spicy with strong Cochin India influence. Yemeni Jews brought the cuisine to Israel, where it enjoys widespread popularity.
סחוג ("Schug") makes the world a better place
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Actually Ethiopia/Somilia and parts of Egypt have traditionally intermingled between those areas. Thus, it is rather difficult to have an honest definition of Yemeni. Amharic has been commonly used among much of the Southern Yemen areas, and Ge'ez was still being used in Ethiopian Orthodox churches that were semi-clandestine but common in Yemen into the 1980's. As for the statuesque women, they are Somaili, not Arab nor Yemeni although Somali people were widespread in Yemen when I lived there. My household staff was a Somali family. The posture was derived in large part by the characters carrying of large loads on the head, making correct posture necessary.
The enormous diversity and legacy of Yemen has been rigidly suppressed as emigration from the adjoining areas in Africa and Yemen have reflected climate and manmade disasters of epic proportions.
If Russia prevails the world will face similar catastrophe emanating from not only Ukraine but Moldova, Georgia and more. In my view all anyone need do is look at Yemen and Syria to see what will happen.
Failing to learn from that analogue would have inconceivable consequences.
Just in case it isn't obvious, "Alset Srotom" is an anagram of "Tesla Motors"
BitJam
Active Member
Thanks for asking!
"But he did it first" is a terrible argument. In the current war it could be used to justify murder, rape, torture, castration of POWs, etc. As Barbara Lee famously said: let us not become the evil we deplore.
The inimitable Perun summed up my mixed feelings nicely in his recent video:
Cluster munitions are controversial weapons banned by a number of countries around the world. They can leave behind significant amounts of dirt and unexploded ordinance that require an area being de-mined and cleared before it's safe for civilians to move through again. But they are also arguably highly effective weapons that are available in very large numbers.
Of course I learned a lot more about cluster munitions from that video. Here is something Perun didn't mention. Biden's press secretary at the time, Jen Psaki, said Russia's use of cluster munitions in Ukraine could be a war crime:Q: Thanks, Jen. There are reports of illegal cluster bombs and vacuum bombs being used by the Russians. If that’s true, what is the next step of this administration? And is there a red line for how much violence will be tolerated against civilians in this manner that’s illegal and potentially a war crime?
MS. PSAKI: It is — it would be. I don’t have any confirmation of that. We have seen the reports. If that were true, it would potentially be a war crime.
For me, it's too hypocritical to turn around and say Ukraine's use of them is peachy-keen, or even acceptable, without at least some mixed feelings.Perun brings up the slice off a cut loaf argument. Ukraine is already filled with land mines (Ivan Krastev said it would take Ukraine 700 years to de-mine Donbas at their current rate). Would more "land mines" from US cluster munitions make that much of a difference? But IMO Perun's main point is they are very effective and Ukraine is running low on conventional artillery ammunition.
Another downside not mentioned by Perun is that the wide-spread use of US cluster munitions in Ukraine may make it much easier for future aggressors to justify their use with shades of the he did it first argument. It could be a gift that keeps on giving.
Ben Rhodes is against their wide-spread use by Ukraine saying it is uncertain they will sway the outcome of the war but it is certain they will kill innocent civilians. I disagree with his first point. I think cluster munitions will be extremely important in allowing Ukraine to make significant progress in their offensive this summer. But efficacy in shortening the war is the only legitimate reason for their use.
IMHO if Ukraine were winning the artillery battle or close to winning it because Russia was about to run out of shells then use of US cluster munitions would not be justified. But with no NATO aircraft and insufficient numbers of precise long-range missiles, Ukraine needs some other kind of long-range advantage in order to have a successful offensive. This need is unfortunate and we might regret the decision someday.
War is Hell.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
I was under the impression that the cluster munitions were needed to deal with the dug in defensive positions; is that not the case?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Not even a little for me. Those being invaded have the right to do whatever it takes to repel the invaders. As I keep saying put yourself and your family in the position of Ukrainians before making judgements. The hypocrisy is pretending you wouldn't use cluster munitions or whatever is at hand to protect your family.
Right so if you break this down further the issue is that there may be unexploded ordinance that is dangerous to civilians. The areas these are being used are covered in land mines, the famous soviet t-62 mine series. These are almost all mechanical mines with decades long fuse viability. We are talking a belt of mines over two hundred miles long and miles deep. The russians raided the soviet war lockers and this is what they have found. Very well used to date. It means that over 1000 square miles are heavily mined (who knows how much area). The addition of a few thousand unexploded hand-grenades is going to be a giant nothing burger. I very much appreciate your concern and desire to take a high road. In this case the road is already covered in landmines (poor joke). In fact I could see them using cluster munitions to clear landmines for breaching.
Then we add unexploded ordinance unto this, it is everywhere. The older the shells they use they more likely the fuses were duds or the shells are duds and the fuses live. Either way, something can blow and civilians are dying today and more will die as the war goes on. All of that before farmers try to plow fields sowed with land mines.
Where will these be used? Mostly to clear the forested trench areas. Russia is mostly building fortifications in forested tree lines. Much less likely to cause civilian casualties than land mines and unexploded bombs in fields.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I've presumed the ethical question is whether the USA should supply them, not whether UKR should use them if supplied. The latter would be hypocritical even by USA standards.
My opinion? Russia deserves any conventional weapon devised. No doubt in my mind
Russia uses them on civilians and urban areas, not front lines. That is a war crime. But then they massacre civilians just for being in towns they capture and they target schools and hospitals with rockets so they don't care. Ukraine needs to kill as many Russian soldiers as possible and as Perun said CM is considerably more efficient at doing that then conventional shells. And yes war is Hell. It's not their job to die for their country. It's their job to kill the invaders to drive them out. Perun also said that it is Ukraine's land and their decision to make.
No the American mines will defuse over time but not these cluster munitions, there is no space in the munition is my guess. So, this is the concern. However, as I explained the whole battlefield is already strewn with mines so the de-mining process will break records.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
"US gives ‘green light’ to European countries to train Ukrainians on F-16 fighter jets, Biden official says
The US will allow European countries to train Ukrainians on F-16 fighter jets, a top Biden administration official confirmed Sunday [...]
“The president has given a green light and we will allow, permit, support, facilitate and in fact provide the necessary tools for Ukrainians to begin being trained on F-16s, as soon as the Europeans are prepared,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union.” [..."
petit_bateau
Active Member
I think there are some misunderstandings and knowledge gaps on this subject.
In the case of cluster munitions, given that neither USA, Russia, nor Ukraine are signatory to the various specific anti-cluster munitions/etc treaties (i.e. the first legal test), the issue is not the weapon itself, but rather in the decision making that leads to its employment as a proportionate way of attacking a military objective (i.e. the second legal test, which is more more generic and dervies from Geneva conventions on conduct of war etc). There is also a third legal test of whether this is a war of aggression (which Russia fails on, but let us leave that aside).
(similar rationales apply to some other munitions types, primarily thermobarics, but the detail varies in some cases)
So if Russia were to (say) use cluster munitions against a Ukraine-occupied trench line occupied by Ukraine troops, that would likely be a valid weapons selection against a valid target.
So if Ukraine were to (say) use cluster munitions against a Russian-occupied trench line occupied by Russian troops, that would likely be a valid weapons selection against a valid target.
But if either side were to use cluster munitions against a target that was only occupied by civilians, then that usage would constitute a war crime.
It gets more ambiguous when a target is dual use in nature (e.g. a railway station) and then one needs to be able to demonstrate some degree of proportionality in the likely cost/benefit of the particular weapon selection and the measures taken to deconflict the effects from the civilian population.
(The dud-rate issue is what many peaceniks used as a stick to bring about the anti-cluster/etc treaties as the dud rate is what creates the teary-eyed subsequent risk to civilian populations. It really is not a very impactful consideration in the Ukraine context given the likely colocation of any dud UKR-launched submunitions with RUS-emplaced conventional minefields.)
So ........ given the observed cautious and proportionate and legally-compliant use of pretty much all weaponry by the Ukraine forces (there are some exceptions, that I am sure, and potentially at least one I have seen) then there is no reason to believe the Ukraine forces will use cluster munitions in any less legally-compliant way.
(As a by-the-way these various Geneva conventions rules also make sound military sense. No point wasting scarce munitions on civilian populations, if that is lawful military outcomes are your intent as opposed to unlawful genocidal ones. No point making civilian populations and non-combatant nations very annoyed with you.)
- Because UK (and many other European nations) is a signatory to the relevant anti-cluster/etc treaties then UK can neither possess these weapons; supply these weapons; nor even encourage or condone the use of these weapons in any circumstances. That is just a legal fact that applies to the UK/etc and is why all UK/etc representatives are very careful with their words (at least the UK reps I've seen reported are careful, YMMV);
- But because USA and Ukraine is/are not a signatory to the relevant specific anti-cluster/etc treaties, then the USA/Ukraine can supply each other with these munitions, use them, etc so long as they do so in a proportionate manner.
Hope this helps.
