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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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$8 billion in frozen russian assets heading to Ukraine if Senate and Prez approve. Ouch! That is got to hurt vlad. :)
Russia has already said they would retaliate on one of their propaganda Kremlin mouthpiece media sites, RT:

Moscow will not leave the potential US decision to hand over its frozen assets to Ukraine unanswered, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Saturday. His words came after the US Congress greenlighted a potential transfer.
“America will have to pay for this, if it is indeed so,” the Russian official said, referring to the potential confiscation. Moscow set no time limits for responding to Washington’s actions, he stated, adding that Russia will tailor its response to “serve our interests in the best possible way.”

US to pay for confiscating Russia’s assets – Kremlin

Any retaliation will likely further backfire on Putin as it will probably incline the Republicans towards further bipartisan pro-Ukrainian legislation.
 
Claims s-200 used to shoot down bomber for first time.

Ukraine had a lot of S-200s left over from the Soviet era that were pretty much out of service at the beginning of the war. I wonder if they have updated them in some way (possibly with western help). I've seen stories of them being used a fair bit lately.


Over the biggest hump! Hopefully no more hurdles and things will move forward from here.

The Freedom Caucus put together a team to block the bill from coming to the floor called The Floor Action Response Team. No kidding (check the acronym). They were stopped and the bill got through. Finally.

It appears that the US, having exhausted all other options, has chosen to do the right thing.

Of course the majority was always there to do the right thing. It was a handful of people who either wanted to break things and/or were siding with Russia who were trying to stop things.
 
What made Speaker Mike Johnson change his mind about Ukraine?

Beau of the Fifth Column suggested this is part of a well thought out master plan by Mike Johnson to take over the Republican party. I cannot come up with a better explanation. The timing makes sense since passing the FISA bill against Trump's orders indicates his power over the party may be waning.

If Trump gets elected then this outright defiance may have been political suicide so the odds that happening probably informed Johnson's decision.

Beau of the fifth Column has an interesting take on Mike Johnson's flip flop on Ukraine:

Let's talk about Johnson, Ukraine, and what's next....

Beau thinks this might be 4D chess by Johnson to take over the Republican party. Beau had predicted something like this might happen a few days ago: Let's talk about the House aid plan...
 
Beau of the Fifth Column suggested this is part of a well thought out master plan by Mike Johnson to take over the Republican party. I cannot come up with a better explanation. The timing makes sense since passing the FISA bill against Trump's orders indicates his power over the party may be waning.

If Trump gets elected then this outright defiance may have been political suicide so the odds that happening probably informed Johnson's decision.
Yes, maybe Johnson realized Trump wouldn’t matter; or did they both realize Putin won’t matter?
 
Yes, maybe Johnson realized Trump wouldn’t matter; or did they both realize Putin won’t matter?
If Trump is no longer pro-Putin then his minions supporters in the House didn't get the memo.

Marjorie Taylor Greene mocked by fellow lawmaker's extreme Ukraine aid bill amendments

Marjorie Taylor Greene: Members Who Vote for Ukraine Aid Have to Join Army

Greene rips Johnson, House colleagues for advancing Ukraine aid bill: ‘Traitor’

So I think this move by Johnson is a clear break from Trump. IIUC, like with most authoritarians, disloyalty is the ultimate sin in the Trump-o-verse. The erstwhile MAGA-Mike is in big trouble if Trump wins the election.

I wonder why the border security package added by the Senate didn't make it into the Ukraine bill? Perhaps that would have been seen as too big of a betrayal, too soon. If it passed over Trump's objections then it would have worsened Trump's prospects of getting elected. Does Johnson have some inside information that makes him certain Trump will lose the election without further help by the Speaker of the House?

Maybe the Ukraine aid package will be enough to ensure Biden wins. After the border security package, one of the best things for Biden this summer would be headlines full of Ukrainian victories. Although aid to Gaza and Israel should also help.

PS: As Prigozhin reminded us:

When you strike at a king, you must kill him.
 
One heck of a rumor on Capitol Hill:

Let's talk about Ukraine, Johnson, and deterrence....

Paraphrased:
I heard a rumor, if there is a motion to vacate to oust Speaker Johnson then some Republicans will immediate resign, thus handing control of the House to the Democrats.
This may have been discussed during Johnson's recent meeting with Trump. 4D Chess. Johnson is much smarter than people are giving him credit for. Handing control of the House to the Democrats before the election like this would be really really bad for the Republican Party.
 
I must have been looking in all the wrong places. Perhaps someone here knows the answer and can tell me if I'm wrong or correct. I do have the advantage here: not just decades of experience first somewhat as an insider, then as a very fascinated outsider, of American foreign policy...AND with a father and uncle who were about as involved in not just participating but actually shaping US foreign policy as one can be.

SO: Of those $60.x billion in "funding" Ukraine that the House has approved and the Senate is about to, HOW MUCH will be earmarked for purchasing US weaponry made in the US by US citizens....and taxpayers...for US companies...also taxpayers? Is the answer 95% or 100%? Because, experience tells us, that is the way it is almost every single time.
Unfortunately, one cannot prejudice those in the states or districts that are home to those who voted against this bill. Meaning, of course, that those clamoring against it are that much more hypocritical.

Is this too political for this thread and forum? Let me ask. Ah: the answer is No. Yay.
 
I must have been looking in all the wrong places. Perhaps someone here knows the answer and can tell me if I'm wrong or correct. I do have the advantage here: not just decades of experience first somewhat as an insider, then as a very fascinated outsider, of American foreign policy...AND with a father and uncle who were about as involved in not just participating but actually shaping US foreign policy as one can be.

SO: Of those $60.x billion in "funding" Ukraine that the House has approved and the Senate is about to, HOW MUCH will be earmarked for purchasing US weaponry made in the US by US citizens....and taxpayers...for US companies...also taxpayers? Is the answer 95% or 100%? Because, experience tells us, that is the way it is almost every single time.
Unfortunately, one cannot prejudice those in the states or districts that are home to those who voted against this bill. Meaning, of course, that those clamoring against it are that much more hypocritical.

Is this too political for this thread and forum? Let me ask. Ah: the answer is No. Yay.

Per The Guardian:

In the Ukraine bill, of the $60.7bn, a total of about $23bn would be used by the US to replenish its military stockpiles, opening the door to future US military transfers to Ukraine. Another $14bn would go to the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, in which the Pentagon buys advanced new weapon systems for the Ukrainian military directly from US defense contractors.

There is also more than $11bn to fund current US military operations in the region, enhancing the capabilities of the Ukrainian military and fostering intelligence collaboration between Kyiv and Washington, and about $8bn in non-military assistance, such as helping Ukraine’s government continue basic operations, including the payment of salaries and pensions.

Per factcheck.org, about 10% of 2022 US spending on Ukraine was for social programs so the new spending plan might spend even less on military needs.

USAID paid $13B of the 2022 $113.1B for direct budget support to the Ukrainian government which included salaries of 618k educators, 517k health workers, 56.5k first responders, pension assistance for 9.8M people, assistance for 1.3M internally displaced people, housing assistance to 4.1M people, social assistance to 240k low income families, and 480k people with disabilities.

The above report didn't specify how much was spent on Ukrainian pensions but a later USAID Congressional report said $4B was spent on Ukrainian pensions as of Nov 2022. $4B sounds like a lot but for 9.8M people it's only ~$400/person. The average Ukrainian 2023 salary was $625/mo.

 
SO: Of those $60.x billion in "funding" Ukraine that the House has approved and the Senate is about to, HOW MUCH will be earmarked for purchasing US weaponry made in the US by US citizens....and taxpayers...for US companies...also taxpayers? Is the answer 95% or 100%? Because, experience tells us, that is the way it is almost every single time.

According to Heather Cox Richardson,

The House also voted on the three other bills that will be packaged with the Ukraine bill as a single measure to go in front of the Senate. The House voted in favor of providing $8.1 billion in support for Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific by a vote of 385–34. It approved more than $26 billion for Israel, including $9.2 billion in humanitarian aid not specifically for Gaza but for populations in crisis, by a vote of 366–58. And it voted 360–58 to place additional sanctions on Iran, seize Russian assets, and require the Chinese owners of TikTok to sell the company within nine months if they want it to continue to be available on U.S. app stores.

The total price tag of the measures is about $95.3 billion. About $50 billion of it will be used here in the U.S. to replenish the supplies that will go abroad.

... but that's out of all the aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.
 
In my Guardian newsfeed this morning, as expected the lead story:


Unexpectedly, this was also included:

The backlash was fierce. Marjorie Taylor Greene, the outspoken Georgia representative, immediately filed a resolution demanding Johnson’s removal, called the bill a “sham”.

“I don’t care if the speaker’s office becomes a revolving door,” Taylor Greene told Steve Bannon, Trump’s former adviser, on his War Room channel. “The days are over of the old Republican party that wants to fund foreign wars and murder people in foreign lands while they stab the American people in their face and refuse to protect Americans and fix our problems.”

Branded “Moscow Marjorie” by former Republican representative Ken Buck, who said she gets her talking points from the Kremlin, Taylor Greene went further by accusing Ukraine of waging “a war against Christianity”.

“The Ukrainian government is attacking Christians, the Ukrainian government is executing priests,” she said. “Russia is not doing that. They’re not attacking Christianity.” (In fact, according to figures from the Institute for Religious Freedom, a Ukrainian group, at least 630 religious sites had been damaged or looted in Russia’s invasion by December last year.)

 
In my Guardian newsfeed this morning, Unexpectedly, this was also included:

Does this correspond to Mike Johnson’s alleged plan to take over the Republican Party (according to Beau), or does it contradict that theory??

I’m not quite following… I’m a simple checkers guy, certainly not 4-D anything.
 
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Does this correspond to Mike Johnson’s plan to take over the Republican Party (according to Beau), or does it contradict that theory??

I’m not quite following…
It's saying there are (at least) two wings of the party that have some major points of disagreement. Johnson, apparently, came to the realization that he falls in with the more traditional (Reagan) wing, and has calculated he has the support from enough democrats (for now) to survive this backlash.

Unlike Kevin McCarthy, he hasn't built the bad faith with democrats that lost McCarthy their support when under threat by the other wing. So I think Johnson is right, for now. But even if they lose, I think MTG will try again later.
 
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