Russia/Ukraine conflict

[BitJam]

Edit: It looks like the snippet is public
Ron Filipkowski (@ronaldfilipkowski) on Threads

"We can't play politics with this". Mike Johnson has been helping Putin by playing politics with this for six long months. He also played politics by nuking the Ukraine/Israel/Gaza/Taiwan aid bill that had the US border security package included which he had demanded. Maybe he thought he was effectively asking for the broomstick of the Wicked Witch of the West.

While a bi-partisan group in the Senate was working on the border security package, people here were spreading outlandish right-wing lies claiming Biden was willing nix the aid package because he was adamant about taking no action to secure our border. The truth was the exact opposite of this. The work on the border package was not secret except perhaps to those who were intentionally blind to it.

If Mike Johnson has finally (finally!) decided to put the good of the US and the good of the free world ahead of his own craven political interests, then it's about f-in time! But I will only believe this is not part of his anti-American, anti-democracy hi-jinks after we see the bill and after it passes without a lot of onerous BS added.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

I saw that Jake Broe previously wrote this (below). But it appears he has reversed his position on this since. Don't know how much this Jake Broe knows though. And I'm no expert on this either.

"
This is a political trap being laid by @SpeakerJohnson. He wants military aid passed for Israel and NOT for Ukraine.

First the House will pass separate bills. Then these new bills have to go back to the Senate to be voted on again.

Senate Republicans will then pass the House version of aid to Israel, but then filibuster the stand alone Ukraine aid bill. If Ukraine aid can't get 60 votes to end debate in the Senate, then it is dead.

The last vote for aid to Ukraine (with aid to Israel) already had 30 Senators vote against it. If Donald Trump can call and threaten 10 more Republican Senators and twist their arm to join a filibuster, then a stand alone aid bill to Ukraine will never pass.

Or... if Senate Republicans manage to amend a single thing in the bill, it would have to go back to the House to be voted on again and Speaker Johnson could just never allow a vote on the amended version of the bill kicked back to him. Senate Republicans of course would amend nothing in the Israel bill to make sure it doesn't need another vote in the House.

Biden will only get the Israel aid package sent to his desk and then have to decide if he vetoes it or not without Ukraine aid (spoilers - he won't veto it).

Likewise, doing all this will take additional weeks or months as Senate Republicans will do everything procedurally possible to waste more time to help Russia.

If Speaker Johnson actually wanted aid to pass, he would just schedule an up or down vote on the Senate Bill.
"

twitter.com/RealJakeBroe/status/1780083233583226982

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780083233583226982

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Two men with dual German-Russian citizenship have been arrested in Germany for allegedly plotting acts of sabotage aimed at undermining military support for Ukraine, the German prosecutor's office reported on April 18. One suspect, identified as Dieter S., had been discussing possible actions with a person connected to Russian intelligence since October 2023, the prosecutor's office said in a statement. Dieter S. was ready to carry out attacks on military facilities, including U.S. ones, in Germany. German media reported the Grafenwehr military base in Bavaria, where Ukrainian soldiers are trained to use U.S. Abrams tanks, was among the likely targets. [My underline.]

Two Arrested In Germany For Planning Sabotage In Favor Of Russia

Two men with dual German-Russian citizenship have been arrested in Germany for allegedly plotting acts of sabotage aimed at undermining military support for Ukraine, the German prosecutor's office reported on April 18.

www.rferl.org

 

[wdolson]

I saw that Jake Broe previously wrote this (below). But it appears he has reversed his position on this since. Don't know how much this Jake Broe knows though. And I'm no expert on this either.

"
This is a political trap being laid by @SpeakerJohnson. He wants military aid passed for Israel and NOT for Ukraine.

First the House will pass separate bills. Then these new bills have to go back to the Senate to be voted on again.

Senate Republicans will then pass the House version of aid to Israel, but then filibuster the stand alone Ukraine aid bill. If Ukraine aid can't get 60 votes to end debate in the Senate, then it is dead.

The last vote for aid to Ukraine (with aid to Israel) already had 30 Senators vote against it. If Donald Trump can call and threaten 10 more Republican Senators and twist their arm to join a filibuster, then a stand alone aid bill to Ukraine will never pass.

Or... if Senate Republicans manage to amend a single thing in the bill, it would have to go back to the House to be voted on again and Speaker Johnson could just never allow a vote on the amended version of the bill kicked back to him. Senate Republicans of course would amend nothing in the Israel bill to make sure it doesn't need another vote in the House.

Biden will only get the Israel aid package sent to his desk and then have to decide if he vetoes it or not without Ukraine aid (spoilers - he won't veto it).

Likewise, doing all this will take additional weeks or months as Senate Republicans will do everything procedurally possible to waste more time to help Russia.

If Speaker Johnson actually wanted aid to pass, he would just schedule an up or down vote on the Senate Bill.
"

twitter.com/RealJakeBroe/status/1780083233583226982

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780083233583226982

Jake Broe has a YouTube channel and is a military vet. He has done a fair bit of reporting on Ukraine and done some interesting interviews. I have seen a few of his videos. His content is fairly good quality.

I don't think that any more Senators will turn against Ukraine aid. Unlike the House the Senate is controlled by the Democrats and the Republican leader is pro-Ukraine. There are some Senators who are pro-Russia, but they are a minority. The Senate Republicans have also been more resistant to pressure from Trump. There is less he can to to them. The bulk of Republicans in the Senate have 2-4 years before they have to face voters again. Only 12 seats are on the ballot this year and some of those are open seats because the incumbent is retiring. One of those retiring is Mitt Romney who is very pro-defense and pro-Ukraine.

If all Democrats and Independents (all three Independents caucus with the Democrats and tend to consistently vote with them) vote for Ukraine aid, it only takes 9 Republicans to move the bill. There are easily 9 solid pro-Ukraine votes among the Republicans in the Senate.

If the bill voted out of the House has some kind of poison pill added to it, then the Senate will have to modify it to get it through and it will have to go back to the House. That is the biggest danger.

The Democrats are holding a Sword of Damocles over Mike Johnson's head and there are rumors Mike Johnson has been talking to Hakim Jeffries (Democratic leader in the House). The Republicans don't have enough votes to remove Johnson, but if the Democrats join into the vote to remove, he will be removed. That's what happened with the removal vote on Kevin McCarthy. The Democrats might be making their support for keeping him contingent on the bill landing on Biden's desk and getting signed. After all the shenanigans that have been pulled the last 6 months, I don't think the Democrats are in the mood to trust Johnson.

If Johnson were removed, the House will probably not have a Speaker for a while, and possibly not until next term. The House can do no business without a Speaker. It took the Republicans a while to settle on McCarthy and it took several ballots to settle on Mike Johnson. They are more divided now than they were when they held the vote that put Mike Johnson in the seat. The Republicans in the House have a lot of internal conflict between the extremists and those who are more traditional. I've read that whenever they have caucus meetings the yelling gets very loud.

 

[navguy12]

From the Guardian Ukraine war news feed today:

• The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, on Wednesday urged his fellow EU leaders to follow Germany’s lead and send Ukraine more Patriot air defence systems. Germany on Saturday announced it was sending an additional Patriot battery. “This is immediately useful, we want to encourage others to do the same,” said Scholz as he arrived for an EU summit in Brussels. “Now it is about doing it quickly and not at some point in the future.”

Ukraine war briefing: Don’t stockpile your Patriots, put Ukrainian needs first, allies told

Olaf Scholz tells EU to send more Patriot batteries as Nato chief urges members to prioritise Ukraine’s air defences; airstrikes on Chernihiv kill 17. What we know on day 785

www.theguardian.com

 

[navguy12]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780698648764092567

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780988607689613554

 

[iPlug]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780988607689613554

Links to:

Anduril

No specs given, maybe because it is Australian Defense Force bound and it's "operationally relevant capability" may want to be kept limited to need to know folks. Although Australia may not be ready to donate it for such purposes, looks like could carry enough explosives to make a certain bridge become very inoperable.

 

[iPlug]

Great! When?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781000610625568963

There are six additional Patriot systems in NATO countries that could be delivered to Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on April 18 following a Special European Council summit in Brussels...​

​

Germany announced on April 13 that it would provide Kyiv with an additional Patriot system, the third Patriot system Berlin has provided...​

​

"We have heard about seven additional systems, one of these is ours, and we hope to find six more in the NATO context."...​

Scholz hopes NATO countries can deliver 6 more Patriots to Ukraine.

 

[DanCar]

If you want to see twitter feed of Johnson being attacked because of current funding legislation:

https://twitter.com/search?q=%22Speaker%20Johnson%22&src=trend_click&vertical=trends

This is a link to a search, so using the link on some other day will likely bring up different content.

 

[BitJam]

Beau of the fifth Column has an interesting take on Mike Johnson's flip flop on Ukraine:

Let's talk about Johnson, Ukraine, and what's next....

Beau thinks this might be 4D chess by Johnson to take over the Republican party. Beau had predicted something like this might happen a few days ago: Let's talk about the House aid plan...

 

[Crutonius]

If you want to see twitter feed of Johnson being attacked because of current funding legislation:

https://twitter.com/search?q=%22Speaker%20Johnson%22&src=trend_click&vertical=trends

This is a link to a search, so using the link on some other day will likely bring up different content.

It's tough to wrap my head around. I would think in his position that appealing to the center would be a desirable thing. But apparently he believes that being saved by the democrats in a vote of no confidence would be a disastrous thing for his career. It seems he sees that as a method of last resort.

 

[jabloomf1230]

Mike finds Jesus.

More like Jesus found Mike.

 

[DanCar]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774874991000969268

The post above discusses why today we have such extreme views. It is because extreme views gets clicks and moderate views, well get nothing. Suggestion: rather than reacting negativity to the extreme views, which gets the most views, to just chill and seek the moderate views. Rather than posting / reposting here very negative political commentaries, to just chill and look the other way. I'm likely guilty of the same.

 

[Skipdd]

From the New York Times at 12:35am
“House Republicans took a critical step late Thursday night toward bringing up the long-stalled foreign aid bill for Ukraine and Israel, after being forced to rely on Democratic votes to move a plan to consider it out of a key committee and onto the floor.
The 9-to-3 vote in the critical Rules Committee was an early step in the convoluted process the House is expected to go through over the next couple of days to approve the $95 billion aid package. It reflected the extent of far-right anger over Speaker Mike Johnson’s plan to push through the legislation over the opposition of ultraconservative Republicans, and underscored how heavily the speaker will have to rely on Democrats to push it across the finish line.
In a spasm of anger, three far-right Republicans on the panel, which controls what legislation comes to the House floor, refused to back the rule needed to bring up the foreign aid bill, putting it on track to die in committee. But Democrats on the panel stepped in to save it in an extraordinary breach of custom.
All Democrats voted to advance the plan out of committee.
The Rules Committee has traditionally been an organ of the speaker, and legislation is typically advanced to the floor in a straight party-line vote.”

This is a positive step. Bipartisanship to support Ukraine.

 

[wdolson]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774874991000969268

The post above discusses why today we have such extreme views. It is because extreme views gets clicks and moderate views, well get nothing. Suggestion: rather than reacting negativity to the extreme views, which gets the most views, to just chill and seek the moderate views. Rather than posting / reposting here very negative political commentaries, to just chill and look the other way. I'm likely guilty of the same.

I do sometimes look at what's trending on Twitter just to see what people are talking about, but when I want actual news, I seek out the source rather than let it be pushed to me.

The only value in getting the news that's trending on social media is to educate yourself on what other people are setting their hair on fire about. In that case the real story is people's reaction rather than the subject matter.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

One Tu-22M3 down.
(Looked like fire in the back)

 

[DanCar]

Claims s-200 used to shoot down bomber for first time.

Ukrainian soldiers destroy Russian Tu-22M3 bomber: Weaponry used revealed

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

 

[navguy12]

From the Guardian:

The airport, which is under the control of US troops, often serves international leaders and aid workers travelling in and out of Ukraine, and is frequently visited by Zelenskiy.

Polish man arrested over alleged Russian plot to assassinate Zelenskiy

Poland’s national prosecutor says man was preparing to share security details of airport used by Ukrainian president

www.theguardian.com

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Claims s-200 used to shoot down bomber for first time.

Ukrainian soldiers destroy Russian Tu-22M3 bomber: Weaponry used revealed

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

Same missiles used to down the A-50. They seem to be working quite well.