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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
jeewee3000
Active Member
I've been following using this (other) map: Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com
EDIT: sometimes it doesn't load. But I assure you it's legit and not malware so no risk in reloading the site a few times.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I wonder if that yetch was named "Potemkin".
Ukrainian Man Partially Sinks Yacht of Russian CEO 'Selling Weapons'
The 55-year-old was moved by reports of the ongoing events in his country that included missiles hitting areas in Kyiv.
www.newsweek.com
Here is an admittedly barely topical question for our resident retired international commercial banker.
If a bank finds itself cut off from SWIFT, how cumbersome, nigh-impossible, or relatively easy would it be for it to gocap ushanka in hand to its friendly down-the-street rival and channel SWIFT transactions through that entity?
Jut a hypothetical question, of course.
If a bank finds itself cut off from SWIFT, how cumbersome, nigh-impossible, or relatively easy would it be for it to go
Jut a hypothetical question, of course.
Remember that SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Transactions)
Actually international transactions can be done without SWIFT, but are slower and more cumbersome, with telex etc.
So, the non-member simply has a correspondent acountwith a member and sends the transfer instructions to the member, conveniently, the non-member can send those instructions in SWIFT format. It's wise for the Iranian or Russian bank to send those funds through their non-prohibited associates. They will probably use the 900 series:
SWIFT ISO15022 Standard<br>Detail view for message MT900 - Confirmation of Debit
SWIFT ISO15022 Standard - Vue de détail du message MT900 - Confirmation of Debit
www.iotafinance.com
Since these transactions are often large (oil, gas, arms, industrial components etc) and involve 'delicate' transportation arrangements they tend to have distinct entities not prohibited to do these activities.
Although Cyprus has been a traditional Russian, Syrian locus entity for such activities most of those have followed the techniques perfected for Israeli exports to Arab countries and Iranian post-revolution movements. For some decades the global leader in such arrangements has been Deutsche Bank, although theirs has been hampered by those pesky anti-money laundering rules and consequence huge fines.
Now there are a number of countries that have begun to refine their abilities. SWIFT, since inception, has tried to avoid any judgements. Candidly, to work globally there is really no alternative to that posture. The 900 series was developed not long after SWIFT itself was formed, primarily to allow large corporations direct access to SWIFT, mostly petroleum and large industrial companies. Those were initially Scandinavian but ended out being ubiquitous.
So, the postures are really more cosmetic than truly exclusionary. That said, workarounds take time and need active cooperation from large and a active SWIFT members. Now that Deutsche has been largely sidelined by scandal they really aren't a viable option, mostly because it was this sort of evasion that caught them severalties before. Those pesky messages are preserved, you see, and any decent international bank operations person can quickly figure it out.
If you really, really want to I can supply chapter and verse. FWIW, I'm a decade gone from this stuff.
Russian history of the Bolshevik revolution and civil war deposed leadership and this might just happen again with the Oligarchs becoming wealthy at the expense of the citizens. This is looking similar. The economics will play a major hammer on the various players. History repeats since no one seems to learn from the past or ignores it.I wonder if that yetch was named "Potemkin".
Ukrainian Man Partially Sinks Yacht of Russian CEO 'Selling Weapons'
The 55-year-old was moved by reports of the ongoing events in his country that included missiles hitting areas in Kyiv.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said that "Ukraine is one of us and we want them in."
Paging @MC3OZ - I think you may get your wish.
Budmo!
Zelensky signs Ukraine's official application for EU membership. The historic signing follows Zelensky's call for the EU to accept Ukraine, while the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said that "Ukraine is “one of us and we want them in.”" / TwitterPaging @MC3OZ - I think you may get your wish.
Budmo!
It would make sense for the EU …. a resource rich country within it’s fold.The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said that "Ukraine is one of us and we want them in."
Paging @MC3OZ - I think you may get your wish.
Budmo!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
♫ If you'll be my bodyguard ♫
♫ you can call meAl Vol ♫
Cousin Hryhoriy doesn't wear body armour; he EATS body armour.
Budmo!
♫ you can call me
Cousin Hryhoriy doesn't wear body armour; he EATS body armour.
Budmo!
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Economic justice, served by the Market: (here's today's biggest loser)
All's I can say is "FAB, Bubba."
P.S. So far today, TSLA is the #6 gainer in the S&P 500, and here's No.1:
| # | Company | Symbol | Weight | Price | Chg | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 319 | EPAM Systems Inc. | EPAM | 0.058441 | 
| -168.10 | (-43.96%) |
EPAM Systems / CEO:
Arkadiy Dobkin
President of EPAM Systems
Born: June 3, 1960 (age 61 years), Minsk, Belarus
Nationality: American
Education: Belarusian National Technical University (1983)
Organization founded: EPAM Systems
All's I can say is "FAB, Bubba."
P.S. So far today, TSLA is the #6 gainer in the S&P 500, and here's No.1:
| 412 | SolarEdge Technologies Inc. | SEDG | 0.039485 | 
| 31.00 | (11.15%) |
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Wonder if it would be cost-effective to pull pipe segments of Nord Stream from the Baltic sea to melt down into rebar to help rebuild Ukraine.
Remember that SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Transactions)
Actually international transactions can be done without SWIFT, but are slower and more cumbersome, with telex etc.
So, the non-member simply has a correspondent acountwith a member and sends the transfer instructions to the member, conveniently, the non-member can send those instructions in SWIFT format. It's wise for the Iranian or Russian bank to send those funds through their non-prohibited associates. They will probably use the 900 series:
To specify other relevant data.SWIFT ISO15022 Standard<br>Detail view for message MT900 - Confirmation of Debit
SWIFT ISO15022 Standard - Vue de détail du message MT900 - Confirmation of Debit
Since these transactions are often large (oil, gas, arms, industrial components etc) and involve 'delicate' transportation arrangements they tend to have distinct entities not prohibited to do these activities.
Although Cyprus has been a traditional Russian, Syrian locus entity for such activities most of those have followed the techniques perfected for Israeli exports to Arab countries and Iranian post-revolution movements. For some decades the global leader in such arrangements has been Deutsche Bank, although theirs has been hampered by those pesky anti-money laundering rules and consequence huge fines.
Now there are a number of countries that have begun to refine their abilities. SWIFT, since inception, has tried to avoid any judgements. Candidly, to work globally there is really no alternative to that posture. The 900 series was developed not long after SWIFT itself was formed, primarily to allow large corporations direct access to SWIFT, mostly petroleum and large industrial companies. Those were initially Scandinavian but ended out being ubiquitous.
So, the postures are really more cosmetic than truly exclusionary. That said, workarounds take time and need active cooperation from large and a active SWIFT members. Now that Deutsche has been largely sidelined by scandal they really aren't a viable option, mostly because it was this sort of evasion that caught them severalties before. Those pesky messages are preserved, you see, and any decent international bank operations person can quickly figure it out.
If you really, really want to I can supply chapter and verse. FWIW, I'm a decade gone from this stuff.
yes this has been interesting.
any russian bank blacklisted from SWIFT would need access to more than just MT900 messages in order to conduct full business continuity.
SWIFT would likely blacklist/block from network all BICs (acct id's) associated with the few banned banks, rendering them inoperable.
in order to replace all transactions with outside world, they’d need not only business relationship, accounts, message delivery medium (SFTP, etc) an internal engineering effort to build all this, and other banks in good standing who are willing to skirt the sanctions.
as you alluded to, the setup and facilitation of this takes months. banks do 1000s of SWIFT transactions per day...and the large one do many more. its a pretty serious penalty, if implemented
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
It's a '2 steps forward' kind of day for Elon
Good questions:
1. different country, must be one with very large international banking sector
2. The expense would not be a material deterrent, a few pips, perhaps more depending on source of funds.
3. Just as quick as normal. Believe it or not, the clearing process takes the time, not the initiation. Remember the actual transaction will still be SWIFT, just not from the blacklisted bank.
4. Not necessarily. The world still wants the oil and gas. They'll claim otherwise but they'll help the evasion. Whoever 'they' are.
NEWS: Switzerland has joined the boycott. They did NOT ban Nazi Germany. They did NOT ban Iran. This changes the equation...
Given this, no respectable SWIFT bank will help evade this. Even the three or four reliable evades of anti-money laundering are unlikely to buck this trend now IMHO. Switzerland has done such things last in 1815, when they actually were at war
you are correct only if the banks in question have ignorance if the System. BIC issues are trivially easy to fix. Every competent such bank has solutions. These solutions are NOT BAÚ. They are intentional regulatory evasion. Such solutions are illegal in most jurisdictions. They are very common. Iran still exports petroleum and still buys prohibited items.
These do not take months to establish because the same places have long dealt with tax evasion and other money laundering devices for long periods of time. Remember that the illicit drug trade by itself is global in scope. Other forms of systemic fraudarem also nearly ubiquitous.
The use of non stand messaging helps, although nearly all such SWIFT messages are quite legitimate and simply are additional information needed by beneficiaries to link the transfer to a defined purpose, such as Letter of Credit purpose coding.
So let me get this straight. Elon sent some starlink receivers to a "war zone". When is the last time a "war zone" had running electricity? Maybe the real question is why is Putin keeping electricity and water running in this "war zone"? Think logically.
ThisStockGood
Still cruising my Model S 70 2015
Ukraine has electricity. If electricity disappears, you change your location. You probably have to anyway.
jabloomf1230
Minister of Silly Walks
That is my point. They have electricity and water. Also, for the most part they have internet and it happens to be provided by guess who (russian isp's...bet you didn't know that).
When is the last time that there was a "war zone" that had these things was my point? Russia certainly has the capabilities to wipe out this infrastructure by kinetic and cyber means. In fact, it is common sense (and warfare 101) to destroy this infrastructure before moving in.
Hmmm...it is quite fascinating.
so i understand…
are you saying that, since the system had intentional loopholes and has historically been corrupt, so this particular sanction doesn’t have much bite to it.
but in todays lens, and with even Switzerland publicly bowing out, that it may just be a back-breaker for these russian banks if implemented? sorry i was a little confused between the post replies. thank you.
