Russia/Ukraine conflict

[ZachF]

Mostly I agree but...some fundamental issues.
The vast majority of Russia's IT, analytic, mathematical and physics expertise in post-Soviet Russia came form Akadengorodok , the academic powerhouse city adjacent to Novosibirsk. It is pretty simplistic to minimize those capabilities. Personally, ever competent tech person I ever met from anywhere in the Moscow area came from there. not most-all. The plurality of students there were non-Rus, most had origins in Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, Moldova etc, but most had been born in Siberia, usually children of physicist, mathematics or other tech parentage.

Post Soviet many of them have sought citizenship and passports from their ethnic origin, easy to do as a general rule during the 1990's especially, but pretty easy until recently.

What that means is that Russia, as we discuss this, is losing those people in droves. They left beginning a few weeks ago. Many are acutely sensitive to political change, although they tend not to say anything about that unless they REALLY trust their confidants.

As generalities about STEM check out the statistics for Estonia, clear number one in the world.

Education is one part of the process, another one is creating a climate that allows these skills to actually be applied into real world solutions/products/inventions/etc… This is one area where the US excels and Russia performs horrifically.

For instance, I created an estimation of 2022 R&D spending by country, and Russia just barely makes the top 20, and will probably be kicked out after.

$885,176m United States
$407,277m China
$152,160m Japan
$128,142m Germany
$85,346m South Korea
$65,024m France
$59,518m United Kingdom
$32,251m Canada
$30,518m Taiwan
$30,507m Italy
$28,649m Australia
$25,981m Israel
$25,247m Switzerland
$25,075m India
$22,912m Netherlands
$20,838m Brazil
$20,570m Sweden
$20,345m Belgium
$19,772m Spain
$18,455m Russia*(Pre sanctions)
$14,606m Austria
$11,588m Denmark
$10,138m Poland
$9,772m Norway
$8,925m Turkey
$8,354m Finland
$7,268m Thailand
$6,892m Singapore
$6,885m Saudi Arabia
$5,917m Ireland
$5,479m United Arab Emirates
$5,383m Czechia
$4,879m Mexico
$4,548m Malaysia
$4,152m Portugal
$4,032m Indonesia
$3,878m Hong Kong SAR
$3,822m New Zealand
$3,309m South Africa
$3,127m Greece
$3,123m Argentina

Countries with a fraction of Russia’s population are devoting more money to R&D, like Israel, Sweden, Taiwan and Switzerland. This is Dutch disease at work.

 

[nativewolf]

Oops, She's Tatar not Russian.
The wiki on Ufa tells a little bit more:
Ufa

She has been one of the brightest stars of Russian economic policy. She has been really outstanding as a bank regulator and as chief architect of Russian monetary policy. Her adroitness has shown repeatedly in Rouble FX management. The biggest achievement she's had is imposing professional standards on bank supervision, not an easy task when several major banks, Sberbank and Alfa Bank for example, are owned and controlled by people with deeply ingrained political connections.

Nabiullina facilitated the establishment and rapid expansion of multi-currency ATM's, helped expand remote banking services to remote areas as well as major cities, and set up professional bank supervision that had strong positive effects on the stability and effectiveness of the banking system. Considering the state of banking in 1990 it is astonishing that she from 2013 has done so much.

My apologies if I sound like an advocate for her rather than a reporter. It's true. In current conditions if she leaves that is a truly horrible portent for Russian recovery from the catastrophe Putin has created with his hubris.

Ruble would certainly crash if she left.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504148985468141571

 

[nativewolf]

So the USA is providing drones. That's a game changer as some of the USA drones are quite capable of carrying anti-aircraft missles, a Reaper has been testing them. So far no conflict that allowed it to be field tested. I would be salivating at the chance if I were general atomics and if I am in charge of the f35 program I'd be a bit worried if they start popping planes. Would be neat though.

A reaper can carry multiple hellfires, 4 I think though the new ones carry over a dozen.

 

[nativewolf]

So the USA is providing drones. That's a game changer as some of the USA drones are quite capable of carrying anti-aircraft missles, a Reaper has been testing them. So far no conflict that allowed it to be field tested. I would be salivating at the chance if I were general atomics and if I am in charge of the f35 program I'd be a bit worried if they start popping planes. Would be neat though.

A reaper can carry multiple hellfires, 4 I think though the new ones carry over a dozen.

Some reports had suggested USA might provide the smart remote controlled bombs called switchblades which are very cheap, dump one time use. Basically a tiny v1. That would be a game changer I think though I dont' know how many are in the aresenal.

 

[mekberg]

Some reports had suggested USA might provide the smart remote controlled bombs called switchblades which are very cheap, dump one time use. Basically a tiny v1. That would be a game changer I think though I dont' know how many are in the aresenal.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504153642294824972

Switchblade® 300 - Suicide Drone | Kamikaze Drone | Loitering Munition Systems | Tactical Missile Systems | AeroVironment, Inc.

AeroVironment's Kamikaze Switchblade drone is an advanced direct fire loitering missile system that acts as a suicide drone with high precision capabilities, and wave-off feature minimizing collateral damage in hostile environments.AeroVironment, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of Tactical...

www.avinc.com

AeroVironment Switchblade - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[nativewolf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504153642294824972

Switchblade® 300 - Suicide Drone | Kamikaze Drone | Loitering Munition Systems | Tactical Missile Systems | AeroVironment, Inc.

AeroVironment's Kamikaze Switchblade drone is an advanced direct fire loitering missile system that acts as a suicide drone with high precision capabilities, and wave-off feature minimizing collateral damage in hostile environments.AeroVironment, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of Tactical...

www.avinc.com

AeroVironment Switchblade - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Aren't you the person on the spot. Holy cow. That's a game changer. Too bad it is not 1000.

 

[nativewolf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504153642294824972

Switchblade® 300 - Suicide Drone | Kamikaze Drone | Loitering Munition Systems | Tactical Missile Systems | AeroVironment, Inc.

AeroVironment's Kamikaze Switchblade drone is an advanced direct fire loitering missile system that acts as a suicide drone with high precision capabilities, and wave-off feature minimizing collateral damage in hostile environments.AeroVironment, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of Tactical...

www.avinc.com

AeroVironment Switchblade - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

They could take out the ships off odessa with that.

 

[glhs272]

They could take out the ships off odessa with that.

These appear to be effective against light armor. It may have the range, but might not be effective against armored ships.

 

[bkp_duke]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504153642294824972

Switchblade® 300 - Suicide Drone | Kamikaze Drone | Loitering Munition Systems | Tactical Missile Systems | AeroVironment, Inc.

AeroVironment's Kamikaze Switchblade drone is an advanced direct fire loitering missile system that acts as a suicide drone with high precision capabilities, and wave-off feature minimizing collateral damage in hostile environments.AeroVironment, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of Tactical...

www.avinc.com

AeroVironment Switchblade - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Bound to piss off the Russians. I expect some kind of reprisal, probably cyber.

 

[Skipdd]

Bound to piss off the Russians. I expect some kind of reprisal, probably cyber.

I wonder if it means the Russians were successful in getting China to give them armed drones, or they are getting weapons from somewhere else.

Now I’m thinking something different. Just read an editorial in The NYT by Bret Stephens. He basically argues that if the US doesn’t do something more decisive we “invite” Putin to up the ante. “…Arming Ukraine with Javelin and Stinger missiles has wounded and embarrassed the Russian military. Providing Kyiv with MIG-29 fighter jets and other potentially game-changing weapon systems could help turn the tide.”

Here is the link - not sure if it is paywalled.

This Is How World War III Begins

Opinion | This Is How World War III Begins (Published 2022)

Why Putin is likelier to double down than he is to cut his losses.

www.nytimes.com

 

[bkp_duke]

I wonder if it means the Russians were successful in getting China to give them armed drones, or they are getting weapons from somewhere else.

The Chinese want to dominate the globe economically. Given that backdrop, I just don't see how the Russians could pay for much. Barter grain + oil for weapons? That will only work for so long, and China would have them by the short hairs on pricing.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I wonder if it means the Russians were successful in getting China to give them armed drones, or they are getting weapons from somewhere else.

Now I’m thinking something different. Just read an editorial in The NYT by Bret Stephens. He basically argues that if the US doesn’t do something more decisive we “invite” Putin to up the ante. “…Arming Ukraine with Javelin and Stinger missiles has wounded and embarrassed the Russian military. Providing Kyiv with MIG-29 fighter jets and other potentially game-changing weapon systems could help turn the tide.”

Here is the link - not sure if it is paywalled.

This Is How World War III Begins

Opinion | This Is How World War III Begins (Published 2022)

Why Putin is likelier to double down than he is to cut his losses.

www.nytimes.com

Just like in the case above with the US supply where "drones" can mean a lot of different things (from bigger systems like the Reaper, the medium altitude TB2 Ukraine has been using already, to the smaller Switchblade that the US is supplying), I'm going to speculate that the "drones" talked about with China might just be the small DJI drones that are used widely in a civilian sense, not necessarily the armed ones. Of course it aids the talk to magnify things and assume it's the biggest armed drones, but given this is all based on rumors, it's hard to say.

As a side note Ukraine recently accusing DJI of aiding Russia in throttling Ukrainian use of AeroScope (which allows tracking of drones), while allowing Russia full access. DJI denies this and says any issues with its usage is likely due to prolonged power/internet outages in Ukraine.
DJI Denies Throttling Ukrainian Army Drone Tech Amid Rumors
Both sides are obviously using DJI drones (Ukraine being more open about it, Russia haven't confirmed explicitly, although there are reports of captured units).
How Military And Civilian DJI Drones Are Used In Ukraine - Special

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So much death and destruction, but at least we and the Ukraine will have made considerable progress once we're on the other side of this.

Putin and this version of Russia are now completely marginalized all the way through the end of oil.
Ukraine will likely be fast-tracked into the EU.
The world now knows expensive war hardware like the F-35 is a complete waste of money.

We needed a truly hot warzone to test out what everyone already knew. Drone technology, and just technological growth in general, has rendered fighter jets operationally obsolete. Or certainly nowhere near worth the cost.

 

[petit_bateau]

The world now knows expensive war hardware like the F-35 is a complete waste of money.

Hardly. Why do you think :

- Ukraine wants NATO to enforce a no-fly zone;
- both Russia and Ukraine are unable to effectively use airpower to gain air superiority given the existing S300/S400 SAM and IADS regime;
- Putin had to go [attack] this year, because next year the window of military opportunity would have fully closed.

Not all drones are equal. Not all SAMs are equal. Don't confuse what you see at street-level with what NATO is capable of fielding in the air. And if your opponent has air superiority then they control pretty much everything underneath that. (And, to keep this slightly on-topic for TMC, space dominance.)

 

[stopcrazypp]

So much death and destruction, but at least we and the Ukraine will have made considerable progress once we're on the other side of this.

Putin and this version of Russia are now completely marginalized all the way through the end of oil.
Ukraine will likely be fast-tracked into the EU.
The world now knows expensive war hardware like the F-35 is a complete waste of money.

We needed a truly hot warzone to test out what everyone already knew. Drone technology, and just technological growth in general, has rendered fighter jets operationally obsolete. Or certainly nowhere near worth the cost.

Sorry, that is not the take away from this war, in fact, it's almost the opposite. The take away is that fighters like the F-35 are invaluable from a deterrence standpoint. Even though Ukraine is fighting valiantly given the odds and conditions, none of the European nations want to fight a war like Ukraine has, where most of the country is in ruins, and they have to fight on the ground with man-portable weapons. That's why Germany decided to buy F-35s just days ago, after eliminating it from consideration for years:
Germany to buy F-35 warplanes for nuclear deterrence

 

[ThomasD]

The Air Force won't be purchasing any MQ9 Reapers through FY 2024

 

[EVNow]

Bound to piss off the Russians. I expect some kind of reprisal, probably cyber.

At this point, anything short of direct war with Russia is not really a big change.

NATO has been providing arms all these years / months / days …

 

[nativewolf]

At this point, anything short of direct war with Russia is not really a big change.

NATO has been providing arms all these years / months / days …

We'll see. Putin is not that intelligent. Brutal..yes. Disgusting.. yes. Intelligent...don't really think so. He may try chemical weapons, the western intelligence services certainly seem to think he was planning it and announced it in advance. Just as they did other moves from Putin. Chemical weapons would be an escalation that might result in direct intervention. Lots going on, Putin has played this very badly, foolishly.

 

[nativewolf]

So much death and destruction, but at least we and the Ukraine will have made considerable progress once we're on the other side of this.

Putin and this version of Russia are now completely marginalized all the way through the end of oil.
Ukraine will likely be fast-tracked into the EU.
The world now knows expensive war hardware like the F-35 is a complete waste of money.

We needed a truly hot warzone to test out what everyone already knew. Drone technology, and just technological growth in general, has rendered fighter jets operationally obsolete. Or certainly nowhere near worth the cost.

Only disagreeing re expensive planes. I actually agree that they will get fast tracked, super. I think we do need the hot war to test things like the switchblade. If the simple dumb flying bombs work than it is a game changer for warfare and will have to be considered by planners all over. They cost $6k vs the $75k for the javlin. An order of magnitude costs savings usually also means some simplicity in manufacture and that would mean it could become ubiquitous.