Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Russia/Ukraine conflict

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
There is lot of evidence Why smart people are more likely to believe fake news. Proof is in the pudding - it's not like all smart people are atheists.

People simply believe anything they want to believe.

A few selected quotes:


peoples-speech-anyone-anything-outrage-winston-churchill-d512690b293d37b2-eb5b22a2c46e907c.jpg

081c245d0ccab9d56a585dfc8e5916b5.jpg

never-argue-with-stupid-people-mark-twain.jpg

isaac-asimov-quote-lbw9s4n.jpg

reality-is-created-by-the-mind-we-can-change-our-47578621.png

679383221dd218016a29bd8950152539f5ee3e832508f8d66a3c98ec6f2e15f2_1.jpg

26605759.jpg


Smart people can be ignorant at the same time.
These quotes made me think of Henri Poincaré (French mathematician) that said:
“To doubt everything and to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; each saves us from thinking.”
― Henri Poincaré

And more generally he outlines first principle thinking (without stressing the physics part of it like Elon does):
1648040299639.png
 
Poland expelled a horde of russian diplomats today. Charged a polish citizen with spying for GRU.

Just last week they charged a spanish reporter as a GRU agent.


Chubais- the man who created the Oligarchs quits and leaves Russia.
 
To those deep in this thread, this won't be "new", but I found the following video to be a great, in-depth analysis of why we are seeing this conflict play out the way it is.


This was pretty good. I guess he released it on March 5, so we know a bit more now. He has done an update

Somehow I doubt that "peace keeping unit" is the correct term here...

I think that's what they call it. Essentially they are there to prop up the government.
 
A list of former military and intelligence people who helped QAnon with their conspiracy theories, this guy is on that list

Another article
Discredited Intel “Professionals” Push Lie About Russian Interference by Larry C Johnson

I would not be surprised if at least some of these people are actively collaborating with the Russians, the rest are what the intelligence community calls "convenient idiots".

One of the tactics of Russian psyops is to make it appear there are "reasonable" counter arguments on various topics. The US Constitution defines treason very narrowly (the country needs to be at war), but IMO these people are aiding a foreign power in their attempts to weaken the country. The Russians have done similar stunts to weaken other countries.

The Russians are terrible at fighting wars, but their spook services are pretty good.

I read a little bit of the article posted. The analysis is laughably bad. He makes some specious arguments that might sound plausible to someone who doesn't really understand military analysis, but to anyone who understands anything military, it's laughably bad.

The site itself is questionable. It was founded by Ron Unz
Ron Unz
The curious case of Ron Unz

There was a discussion among some of the Brits here a few days ago about how the Tories in the UK have been corrupted by the Russians. There still are Conservatives who are trying to do the right thing for the UK, but they are overshadowed by those who have been too friendly to Putin.

A similar thing has happened in the US. Despite what some people think of my political views, I do believe there is a place for healthy conservatism in the politics of democracies. When any foreign power with goals opposed to those of a country gain influence in that country's influence, the politicians and parties tainted by have become de facto traitors to the values of their country.

This phenomenon in the US is not completely limited to the right. There are a few Quislings on the left too, but they have a lot less influence. In 2016 Jill Stein was (I think) one of those convenient idiots who helped weaken Hillary Clinton's vote (though it didn't help that Clinton was not well liked from the start). Tulsi Gabbard also had a hot minute in the spotlight the last few weeks with her comments about the war.

For the most part the left rejects these people or ignores them. The right makes some of these people rock stars. That's where the danger lies. A nutter preaching their truth on the street corner and nobody paying attention are just harmless nutters. Everyone in the US has a 1st Amendment right to speak out politically, even if it is crazy. The danger is when the crazy starts getting traction.

The US has always had an "alternative facts" wing who believed some pretty crazy things. Historically they have been small, had no political power, and kept to themselves. This was not a right or left phenomenon, it was both. I've known some pretty nutty liberals, but they had no political power and their chances of getting any were infinitesimally small.

Nobody who understands what war is and has any kind of conscience wants to be at war. But someone without a conscience has started a quite significant war that could disrupt the entire world order. Their agents (whether unwitting or not) are working very hard to divide us so our response will be weakened.

The US has committed a lot of sins on the world stage. A lot of other players have too. But the "what about ism" needs to stop. What we have is the 21st century's Hitler who made a major mistake going to war with a broken army and now can't get out. The world needs to be united in making sure he pays the worst possible price for his hubris so this doesn't happen again.

Putin. Is. Losing. But we need to make sure he doesn't wiggle free. We have an opportunity to bring down or dramatically weaken one of the world's most potent dictators. And if we play our cards right we may be able to make the world a better place coming out of this.

In the 1940s the UK, the US, and the USSR made an alliance despite their differences. The US and UK were closer to one another than the USSR, but all three recognized that the imminent threat posed by the axis was the most important problem. We have reached one of those points again.

The figures inside and outside of Russia who have given flank support to Putin over the years all helped this happen. Ultimately responsibility falls on Putin's head, but all those others have a share of the blame too. We need to hold all those people accountable if we really want to make the world a better place post-Putin. Those people either have very poor values, or are easily turned to the darkness, or both. We don't need them anywhere near any kind of power.

And for a contra view: Colonel Douglas Macgregor:
 
Here is Cringely's take:

Here’s why Putin won’t use nukes in Ukraine — Pass it on.

Snippet:​

Most of the fallout of a Kiev attack, in fact, would land in Russia. The cities of Bryansk (427,000 population), Kaluuga (338,000), Kursk (409,000), Orel (324,000), and Tula (468,000) would all be hit, not by weapon strikes, but by fallout. That’s just under two million people exposed in those five cities, not counting folks in the countryside between.

Two million is approximately the population of Kiev, or was before a lot of those people fled west.

We can estimate civilian deaths from radiation, from heat, from atmospheric over-pressure, but I’ll just jump here to the bottom line that about one million Russians would die from such a nuclear attack, both directly and through greatly increased cancer deaths in later years.

So a nuclear attack on Kiev would kill more Russians than Ukrainians.
I want to agree completely but there are some very small tactical nuclear weapons that might, in a sufficiently demented mind, have impact limited to a small area.
 
So as I understand it, there is a "Railroad War" going on in Eastern Ukraine. The Russian army relies heavily on railroads to provide logistics to their army. The Ukrainians blew up rail heads at the beginning of the war to prevent the Russians from using them. However in Russian occupied territory they can start rebuilding the rail heads quickly, as they have 15 brigades of railway troops dedicated to setting up and repairing railroads.


1648045853300.png


Unfortunately, in the south coming out of Crimea, they were not able to blow the railheads before Russian troops occupied the area. They already have an armored train and supplies flowing all the way into Melitopol.


So what to do about it? Railroads are my profession, so I will try to help by giving out some informed opinion. Blowing up bridges is a good start. And we see the Ukrainian troops doing that where possible.


But as you can see, with smaller bridges like this, it's not very effective. This bridge could be repaired relatively quickly by dumping a bunch of ballast (rock) into the river and supporting the tracks. The issue here is the damage is very localized and repairable. Also, there are likely only so many bridges to blow that in territory accessible to Ukrainian troops.

What to do about the miles of track on flat land? It would take a lot of explosives to blow up any significant amount of track. Back in World War II, the Germans came up with a simple device attached to a locomotive, the Schwellenpflug (sleeper Plow).

1648046677204.png


Here is a video of it in action.


As you can see it's very effective at destroying wood railroad ties (sleepers). Once the ties are destroyed there is no way for the railroad to hold gauge and any locomotives run on those tracks would quickly derail. Also, this can take out miles and miles of railroad. It would take the Russians a very long time to repair these tracks. But the problem I see, is that Ukrainian railways are mostly concrete ties.

The sleeper plow will likely not work very well with concrete ties. The issue with concrete ties is that they are constructed with pre-stressed reinforced concrete. The metal rebar reinforcements inside the ties will want to keep the railroad tie in one piece. They won't plow very easily like a wood tie will.

So what to do about this? Well, in my experience the weakness of concrete ties are the "towers" or the fastening system that holds the rail to the ties.

It appears the Ukrainians us the Russian KB-65 rail fastening system.
1648047238663.png

1648047282760.png


The weakness in this system is the hold down lags. If you break out the lag bolts holding the rail down, the tie is complete junk and useless. I believe it would be relatively easy to modify a railcar or locomotive to install "hammers" that will come in contact with these hold-down fasteners and by driving through them, it would tear them out destroying the tie.

Operation Tie Buster:
-Obtain two diesel locomotives and a pair of flat cars or tank cars.
-Modify the tank cars to attach deployable hammers.
-Drive the locomotives out to the railroad in need of destruction/sabotage. Drive them out to the farthest half way point where there is cover. Deploy the lead locomotive towards Russia. Drop the hammers, fire up the locomotive, Full throttle towards the Russian lines. Get out and let the locomotive runaway towards Russia destroying the railroad while it goes. Eventually, the runaway locomotive would run into something, perhaps the Russian supply trains or something depending on how the lines were switched. Either way, once the locomotive has a head of steam, it would be difficult to stop. If the tank car it was pulling was loaded with explosives, all the better. It would be quite the show.
-The other locomotive would drive towards the Ukrainian lines as far as it was determined to where they want the railway taken out.

Anyway, just an idea. Trying to help out somehow with things I know.
 
He has a condition, you know? Anyways, nobody's perfect, even though some of us would like him to be.

Yes, he has claimed Asperger’s syndrome. That might very well be, but that means Tesla as a company sufferers from some of his impetuous decision making.

Nevertheless, I have tremendous respect for Elon. He has achieved near impossible things no other person could have, possibly. From 2011 till mid last year, I was as much a big fan of Tesla as anyone could be.

However, the bad service, unreliable features, laughably bad ergonomics of the latest V11, unilateral slowing down of supercharging on older cars.. changed my mind. These things might just add up one of these days to losing their leadership position in EVs. Could take a while though, seeing how big Tesla is, right now.

Anyway, I don’t want to derail this thread. No more comments on this subject from me.
 
Looks as if even without the bolts the fixtures still keep the rail from moving side to side, at least for a while.
In my experience once the restraining fasteners are removed, the rail will roll if you were to run a locomotive on it. Especially in a curve. Or just through the normal hunting action of the rail cars. But, the same device used to hammer off the towers, could also be designed to give the rail "a little push" to get it to start to roll. You might be surprised to find out how much rail turns into a wet noodle once it's no longer restrained.
1648060898636.png