Russia/Ukraine conflict

[EVNow]

Alt-right in the west and Putin use the same language.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1507330369422782468

 

[SmokyPeat]

Nothing like that has never changed dictator behavior.

I'd like to say otherwise, but I don't see sanctions impacting Putin even a little. IMHO this is now clear to President Biden, and why he got a bit heated yesterday:
"Let’s get something straight: You remember, if you’ve covered me from the beginning, I did not say that in fact the sanctions would deter him. Sanctions never deter. You keep talking about that. Sanctions never deter."

Of course the ones "talking about that" were VP Harris, Sec of State Blinken and Press Sec Psaki. They've said for a solid month the whole point of sanctions was to deter Putin. So you can understand why the White House press corp might be a bit confused, lol. But the key point remains, only overwhelming military force will stop Putin. Ukraine has the personnel, they just need much better weapons and a lot more of them. Arming them to the teeth today will save lives. Keep dragging our feet and many more will die.

Sanctions take time to have an impact, but they will definitely have a considerable impact. I don't think the Russian people will accept Putin taking them to N. Korean levels of impoverishment. While I agree that supplying the Ukranians with weaponry should be a top priority, I think it's naive to believe that imposing sanction is useless. Bless Biden's heart, but at this stage, I'm not confident that he could spell deterrent.

 

[sundaymorning]

What you describe that led to China's success is capitalism + socialism (which allows planned economies). China is pretty much "communist" in name only now after Deng Xiaoping. In communism, there is supposed to be no class system, everyone is supposed to earn the same wages regardless of ability/contribution, government distribution of resources based on need (not ability/contribution) and no privatization of industry/production. That was all thrown out the window, which led to China's success. If China continued the old communist ways, I don't see them having a booming economy.

You can compare to Taiwan, which despite having much less resources, boomed, while mainland China was stagnating under older policies.

I agree communism didn’t work for China/Russia, China was able to pivot away from that to progress it’s economy to where it is today by a hybrid social/capitalist framework. In some ways, every Western nation has adopted more or less socialism: free education, college financial aid, medical care, healthcare, social security, EV incentives, etc.

Good points, though how communism was implemented in the end didn't really look all that much like what Marx and Engle envisioned. Strip away the communist rhetoric and most communist governments look like a bit more formalized dictatorship like we've seen in a lot of places. But the communist talking points were a vehicle to industrialize a number of countries that were stuck in a pre-industrialized state. Though the path Taiwan and South Korea took to full industrialization was better for the people both in the process and in the long run than the way communists did it.

Ultimately automation is going to be the cheapest labor.

I agree, capitalism combined with democracy and the fight to unionize and protect laborers from powerful/greedy business owners took the western world to where it is today. In the East, people weren’t just fighting greedy businessmen, they were fighting Czars and emperors who had much more power. The word of the emperors IS the law, and although communism failed, it was because the Czars and Emperors weren’t investing as much money into education, science and technology to begin with. The lower class had to depend on what they knew best, which was farming & agriculture; this was expected because the lower class living in poverty was most interested in filling their stomachs first, before they’re able to rebuild the economy the people needed to be fed. But even agriculture needed technology to remain competitive, their lack of expertise in science & technology ultimately sealed the communists’ fate, as they were ill-equipped in a modern world. When communism took over, many rose through the ranks from being peasants, who now found themselves as officers. Most lacked basic education, so they made poor administrative decisions. In a democratic state, education is prevalent, which ensures a bright future for generations to come. Can you guess who leads the world in education today? It’s no longer western democratic states, according to a 2018 study, the #1 spot ranked for both math and science belongs to-China.

PISA 2018 Worldwide Ranking - average score of mathematics, science and reading - FactsMaps

...Read more

factsmaps.com

Not only that, but the Chinese are also the most literate nation, also ranked #1 for reading. China is longer a country filled with peasants, they’ll get things done and can innovate just as good as anyone today. What they lack, is financial backing from individual investors, this is where their government comes in—Socialism. A strong authoritarian state that invests heavily in its manufacture is considered dangerous to the West. Pound for pound, the Chinese state run businesses will obliterate any individually owned capitalist venture as they have unlimited amounts of money and can operate at a loss for years. Whereas if a capitalist venture was operating at a loss in the West, it’ll be forced out of business as investors pack their bags and leave. This is why the west is terrified of challenging Chinese manufacturing. China isn’t the only socialist country doing this, Canada does the same for certain industries like Lumber, their government subsidizes lumber, so Biden responded by slapping a lumber tariff on Canada, which is why we’re paying so much more for lumber and homes these days. This tariff was first introduced by Trump, which caused a 20% rise in cost:

U.S. could double tariffs on Canadian lumber, despite soaring timber prices

The U.S. Commerce Department has released a report concluding that the United States must double its tariff on Canadian softwood lumber, raising the figure from 9% to 18%. As reported by Fortune, the increase would seek to combat alleged unfair Canadian trade practices, where lumber production is...

archinect.com

Going forward, capitalist countries may need to pivot and adopt some form of social welfare and incentivize American industries in order to stay competitive against China, Canada and so many other countries. 100% capitalism will mean we’re ill-equipped to challenge socialism. The world has changed, can we pivot away from the mindset of “socialism” is BAD, socialism is communism? We may not, the feelings/perception against socialism/communism is vastly misunderstood in this.

By the time we get to full automation the world would have to move past capitalism and socialism, the entire planet will need to pivot towards universal basic income

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

.../ I believe people in Crimea are still 80% pro Russian after this invasion. /...

Does anyone have actual reliable numbers on this? It's been claimed that public opinion shifted in the Donbas region after Putin's full scale invasion of Ukraine, and that the overwhelming majority of people in the Donbas region now hates the Russians. Just wondering about what is actually known about public opinion in Crimea and the Donbas region.

 

[sundaymorning]

For those who think sanctions isn’t working, talk to the average Russian and see what they say:

 

[_Redshift_]

Russia may declare victory, but I have sneaky suspicion that Ukraine won't let them off the hook till every last Russian soldier is out of their territory, and that might even include Crimea.

Simply put, Russia can't sustain the losses they are taking. Not in manpower, not in equipment, and certainly not in morale.

Yep. Several surprises in this whole clusterf.. First we overestimated Putin’s and Russian Military’s abilities. Then we underestimated Ukraine’s resolve. Now it seems (or should I say, I hope) Russia might be ready to cut its losses and declare a fake victory. Possibly be satisfied with taking the eastern provinces already under their control and declaring them Russian vassal states.

As long as there is a stop to the bloodshed, it’s all good, I guess?

 

[adiggs]

CNN is just covering the SCOTUS nomination right now. Care to elaborate on Ukraine? What particularly is the development you're seeing? TIA.

This is what I found:

Col.-Gen Sergei Rudskoi, deputy chief of the Russian general staff, said the main objective of the first stage of the operation — reducing Ukraine's fighting capacity — has "generally been accomplished,” allowing Russian forces to focus on “the main goal, liberation of Donbas.

https://www.yahoo.com/biden-heads-poland-meetings-war-071828933.html

The idea on the Russian side is to declare victory by declaring that the mission was to reduce Ukrainian forces and liberate Donbas. Having achieved their special operation objectives they can fall back and cease operations.

Sounds to me like a reasonable white wash of what's been happening, but honestly anything that Putin can sell internally as a win and allows him to retreat is a good thing in my mind. That is to say - whatever Russia wants to gin up to make retreating from Ukraine more palatable sounds good to me.

 

[nativewolf]

Their economy will suck, but it won't collapse. They are more than self-sufficient in the necessities, e.g. food, energy, timber, steel, concrete.

1.2 trillion is mostly one time in nature, e.g. seizing their reserves plus some yachts and such. Ongoing sanctions are inconvenient, not crippling.

@MC3OZ posted the key data earlier. Russia runs a huge trade surplus. We're talking 15-20% of GDP. January 2022 annualized comes to 550b exports vs 300b imports, and oil/gas prices have risen since then. Even if we shut down 100% of their oil/gas exports they could still fund their imports. And we can't shut down anywhere near 100%, heck China alone buys close to half their crude oil.

Shutting down imports inconveniences them, but further boosts their trade surplus. Of their biggest imports fancy cars and most electronics are frills. Vlad wants to purge decadent western crap anyway. They can get key industrial equipment from China. Maybe we block a few components here and there, but again just nuisance level stuff. Nothing like that has never changed dictator behavior.

I'd like to say otherwise, but I don't see sanctions impacting Putin even a little. IMHO this is now clear to President Biden, and why he got a bit heated yesterday:
"Let’s get something straight: You remember, if you’ve covered me from the beginning, I did not say that in fact the sanctions would deter him. Sanctions never deter. You keep talking about that. Sanctions never deter."

Of course the ones "talking about that" were VP Harris, Sec of State Blinken and Press Sec Psaki. They've said for a solid month the whole point of sanctions was to deter Putin. So you can understand why the White House press corp might be a bit confused, lol. But the key point remains, only overwhelming military force will stop Putin. Ukraine has the personnel, they just need much better weapons and a lot more of them. Arming them to the teeth today will save lives. Keep dragging our feet and many more will die.

Basically your analysis is, from the start, flawed.

First I encourage you to read this brief opinion piece that's from a pro russian oil news aggregator, oilprice.com.

Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine Is A Catastrophe For Its Oil Industry | OilPrice.com

While Europe and the United States will suffer in the short term for turning their backs on Russian oil, the consequences for Russia will be catastrophic

oilprice.com

So lets start with your take that China buys half of Russia's oil. They buy 14% of Russian oil. 14%. That's maxed out in terms of deliveries. They can't easily go higher, there is no infrastructural capacity to shift sales easily. India could step in but again, it has to be sent by tanker and as long as the war is going on that's out, insurance has become impossible. Then there is the replacement of fossil fuels, Russia going to lose Europe. 40% of all Russian oil went to Europe and it is going to be replaced. Might take a year or two to complete this but they lose that market. It's going to gut Ural pricing. Then there is the replacement effect. Iran boosted production to 4mln, UAE is boosting production, SA is boosting production, Canada is boosting, and most importantly the USA is boosting production. Russian oil can not only be easily replaced it will find itself competing for world marketshare just as it was 5 years ago when the oil market crashed. Remember the current supply constraints are not physical but political.

Longer term this gutted Russia energy sales, gas and oil and nuke. EU is going to dramatically increase search for strategic replacements- wind solar battery hydro etc. Long term Russia has greatly hastened the transition to renewables.

I'm only discussing the oil aspects, something I follow but am only an interested bystander. In my field they just surrendered huge market share to US and Canadian producers of softwood lumber, small compared to oil and gas but it added several billion a year to the budget.

Australia has stopped sending Al ores to russia for refining. That was 20% of russian needs, someone (likely china) captures that ore now.

I'm just beginning to list impacts. It is the long term damage to Russia which is likely most severe and will prove dangerous for future leaders.

 

[SageBrush]

I pay as much attention to what Putin and his lackeys say as I do to Trump babbles.

People have short memories, so let me post a reminder:
"We are only on military exercises."

 

[SageBrush]

Sounds to me like a reasonable white wash of what's been happening, but honestly anything that Putin can sell internally as a win and allows him to retreat is a good thing in my mind. That is to say - whatever Russia wants to gin up to make retreating from Ukraine more palatable sounds good to me.

Sounds like BS to me, or Russia would not have been bombing civilian targets for a month.
Russia needs time to re-organize and resupply. I sincerely hope they do not get it. Wipe out the invaders, and let them sue for peace

 

[vanjwilson]

Alt-right in the west and Putin use the same language.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1507330369422782468

One example doesn't make a trend, but this is a heck of a counter-argument to the "Hollywood doesn't love us" claim.

Enemy at the Gates (2001) ⭐ 7.5 | Action, Drama, War

2h 11m | R

www.imdb.com

 

[TheTalkingMule]

We do talk a lot of *sugar* about winning the war, when in fact something like 15-20x more Soviets died fighting the Nazis.

Not to start another irrelevant and boring tangent in this thread.........

 

[Artful Dodger]

A top Russian general gave some of the most detailed public remarks to date on Russia's military strategy in Ukraine, claiming on Friday that the "first stage" of Russia's military plan is now complete ...

The idea on the Russian side is to declare victory by declaring that the mission was to reduce Ukrainian forces and liberate Donbas.

Yup. Just as we were schooled by the Warrior/Poet Mike Tyson, "EVERYBODY got a plan til dey get punched in the kielbasa kovbasa".

Budmo!

 

[MC3OZ]

Their economy will suck, but it won't collapse. They are more than self-sufficient in the necessities, e.g. food, energy, timber, steel, concrete.

1.2 trillion is mostly one time in nature, e.g. seizing their reserves plus some yachts and such. Ongoing sanctions are inconvenient, not crippling.

@MC3OZ posted the key data earlier. Russia runs a huge trade surplus. We're talking 15-20% of GDP. January 2022 annualized comes to 550b exports vs 300b imports, and oil/gas prices have risen since then. Even if we shut down 100% of their oil/gas exports they could still fund their imports. And we can't shut down anywhere near 100%, heck China alone buys close to half their crude oil.

Shutting down imports inconveniences them, but further boosts their trade surplus. Of their biggest imports fancy cars and most electronics are frills. Vlad wants to purge decadent western crap anyway. They can get key industrial equipment from China. Maybe we block a few components here and there, but again just nuisance level stuff. Nothing like that has never changed dictator behavior.

I'd like to say otherwise, but I don't see sanctions impacting Putin even a little. IMHO this is now clear to President Biden, and why he got a bit heated yesterday:
"Let’s get something straight: You remember, if you’ve covered me from the beginning, I did not say that in fact the sanctions would deter him. Sanctions never deter. You keep talking about that. Sanctions never deter."

Of course the ones "talking about that" were VP Harris, Sec of State Blinken and Press Sec Psaki. They've said for a solid month the whole point of sanctions was to deter Putin. So you can understand why the White House press corp might be a bit confused, lol. But the key point remains, only overwhelming military force will stop Putin. Ukraine has the personnel, they just need much better weapons and a lot more of them. Arming them to the teeth today will save lives. Keep dragging our feet and many more will die.

It will take a while for sanctions to bite and the West can and probably should do a lot more to tighten sanctions. That sanction tightening is a progressive process. What Russia does import is a lot of food luxury items and parts for planes / cars etc. All of which is going to be higher priced and harder to get.

In addition to economic sanctions there are a lot of cultural sanctions with Russia being frozen out of cultural and sporting events. Russians still see themselves as European, with a proud cultural heritage being frozen out of Europe is a big deal.

Same thing for trade, a lot of Russia trade is with Europe, and reorientating to trade with China and other countries is not so easy.

The 3rd prong is the war, around Kyiv all indications are Russia is doing badly. However, in the East and South Russia is doing relatively well and the better Ukrainian troops are in the East.

Without adequate resupply/reinforcement with Russian troops near Kyiv will dwindle away to nothing or will be forced to retreat leaving a lot of equipment behind. We need to keep in mind this includes some of al of the 40 mile column of equipment. The current Russian strategy seems to be dig in and hold on.

Similarly in the East and South the Ukrainian army needs resupply / reinforcement and some counter-attacks to relive the pressure.

The good news is Russia knows total victory is off the table, the are probably hoping for a negotiated settlement ASAP.

What we don't yet know is how quickly Ukraine can improve things in the East and South.

All 3 prongs are putting pressure of Russia:-

• Military
• Economic
• Cultural/social

Russia recently published outrageous claims for Ukrainian losses. The problem is inflicting heavy military losses on an opponent looks more like a war than a special military operation. The longer it drags on the more it looks like a war a war for which prior permission was not sought. And the longer it drags on the more all 3 prongs bite.

This is a brutal and high cost war, the high cost means it isn't sustainable for either side.

 

[Singuy]

Sounds like BS to me, or Russia would not have been bombing civilian targets for a month.
Russia needs time to re-organize and resupply. I sincerely hope they do not get it. Wipe out the invaders, and let them sue for peace

Seems like they were bombing civilians because they have no better alternative. Every Russian commander knew going in would have been a catastrophe. They were hoping for a surrender but they know that it'll never happen as what is going on in Mariupol. They know the Ukrainians will fight until every last dying breath without fear. So now that the Ukrainians are having successful counter offensive pushing the Russians further and further away from Kiev, there's really no point and should just declare a victory and leave.

 

[EVNow]

Hmmmm ….

https://twitter.com/x/status/1507409219733045251

 

[nativewolf]

We do talk a lot of *sugar* about winning the war, when in fact something like 15-20x more Soviets died fighting the Nazis.

Not to start another irrelevant and boring tangent in this thread.........

Soviets helped cause the war, partnered with Hitler to invade Poland, attacked Finland and Baltic states sent millions to gulags and then used ancient chinese military strategy to win, as long as you only lose 10 for every enemy killed...you're winning. Their tactics were horrific, their strategy terrible, the purges (self inflected) had gutted themselves. Even then they had to do it with US logistics. The Russian army moved on US trucks, almost 500,000 in total. Did they suffer horribly? Sure they did. Were they suffering horribly before the war ? Sure they did. Did they invade innocent nations first? Sure they did. Did they backstab the Poles? Sure they did.

@Sandor might have a different take on it.

 

[EVNow]

One example doesn't make a trend, ….

Are you saying alt-right is good and Putin is bad or the other way round ?

Ps :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506008748795777024

 

[SageBrush]

Seems like they were bombing civilians because they have no better alternative

Excuse you.

 

[nativewolf]

It will take a while for sanctions to bite and the West can and probably should do a lot more to tighten sanctions. That sanction tightening is a progressive process. What Russia does import is a lot of food luxury items and parts for planes / cars etc. All of which is going to be higher priced and harder to get.

In addition to economic sanctions there are a lot of cultural sanctions with Russia being frozen out of cultural and sporting events. Russians still see themselves as European, with a proud cultural heritage being frozen out of Europe is a big deal.

Same thing for trade, a lot of Russia trade is with Europe, and reorientating to trade with China and other countries is not so easy.

The 3rd prong is the war, around Kyiv all indications are Russia is doing badly. However, in the East and South Russia is doing relatively well and the better Ukrainian troops are in the East.

Without adequate resupply/reinforcement with Russian troops near Kyiv will dwindle away to nothing or will be forced to retreat leaving a lot of equipment behind. We need to keep in mind this includes some of al of the 40 mile column of equipment. The current Russian strategy seems to be dig in and hold on.

Similarly in the East and South the Ukrainian army needs resupply / reinforcement and some counter-attacks to relive the pressure.

The good news is Russia knows total victory is off the table, the are probably hoping for a negotiated settlement ASAP.

What we don't yet know is how quickly Ukraine can improve things in the East and South.

All 3 prongs are putting pressure of Russia:-

• Military
• Economic
• Cultural/social

Russia recently published outrageous claims for Ukrainian losses. The problem is inflicting heavy military losses on an opponent looks more like a war than a special military operation. The longer it drags on the more it looks like a war a war for which prior permission was not sought. And the longer it drags on the more all 3 prongs bite.

This is a brutal and high cost war, the high cost means it isn't sustainable for either side.

At this point if I am ukraine I dont know why I would settle for very much. As long as western aid flows, summer and spring arrive, oil production worldwide is soaring (reducing pain for EU), and EU continues to be horrified and pull away from Russia and rearm I don't see the raison d'etre for settlement. I'd fight til I go what I wanted and I think the Ukrainians want Crimea back.