We’ll see, you may be taking one guy’s words a bit too literally.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
We’ll see, you may be taking one guy’s words a bit too literally.
No, I don't think the alt-right is good. I will own up to thinking Putin has become little more than a Mafia don at this point.
I was just making a little joke at Putin's expense, and using it as an excuse to recommend a movie I really like.
(I actually think cherry-picking, or ignoring, examples of art to score points in any "culture war" is pretty boring, except as a sort of reverse recommendation engine. "The other side hates this, so maybe I should check it out.")
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I think @nativewolf pointed out the ambivalent nature of the Russians (Soviets) behavior around the time of WW2, including many areas where they were less than honorable.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Too easy to say from a safe vantage point. Ukrainians might not want to keep being killed and having their land and buildings destroyed.
Agree, as long as Ukraine doesn’t accept actual limits on their ability to rearm and defend themselves in future. I doubt the words either side says will be lived up to, and possibly not even if in treaties. Then if Putin is displaced, Ukraine will forget anything it said about NATO/EU and join asap. Maintaining Crimea/Donbas seems to be Russia’s best case scenario, and Ukraine will only agree if it means stopping the mayhem and destruction.
Normally I won't, but the last two days were terrible for Russia as they lost lots of ground and cities they occupied.
Yes, ultimately we don't know what the Ukrainians will or won't accept.
If they can liberate Kherson. that reduces some of the pain, and strengthens their negotiating position.
I also think they want a deal that ends the current suffering but also one which justifies the level of suffering. No point in signing on for a deal that they could have got before the war started.
Sonner or later one or both sides needs to start making concessions. The Russians appearing to give up on any hope of taking Kyiv at least means they are getting realistic about how the war is progressing.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
The point is socialism is not the same as communism. And if you have familiarity with China, their education and health care many time actually costs more money to individuals than in many western and "capitalist" nations. For example, while elementary and middle school is free, their high schools charge fees, even when state run. They have a loan program for students that started in 1999, but as far as I can find they don't have anywhere near the same type of grant program that we have in the US.
China raises student loan ceiling
Although they have made a lot of reforms recently, the public coverage is very basic, which means plenty of people go into crippling debt due to healthcare costs:
China healthcare costs forcing patients into crippling debt
Instead, Taiwan has a pretty well run single payer universal health care system (Washington Post article that is fairly recent about it):
An American got sick in Taiwan. He came back with a tale of the ‘horrors of socialized medicine.’
Makes you kind of wonder what things would be like if the ROC continued to rule mainland China instead of the PRC.
Did you look at the details of the link before posting? It only includes certain regions of China, namely "Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang". That's like only including DC, NYC, New York State, New Jersey in an evaluation. If you include rural and other poorer areas, scores are going to be much lower. This has been a long running problem with Chinese statistics, which tends to leave out rural areas (makes things look a lot better on poverty rate also).I agree, capitalism combined with democracy and the fight to unionize and protect laborers from powerful/greedy business owners took the western world to where it is today. In the East, people weren’t just fighting greedy businessmen, they were fighting Czars and emperors who had much more power. The word of the emperors IS the law, and although communism failed, it was because the Czars and Emperors weren’t investing as much money into education, science and technology to begin with. The lower class had to depend on what they knew best, which was farming & agriculture; this was expected because the lower class living in poverty was most interested in filling their stomachs first, before they’re able to rebuild the economy the people needed to be fed. But even agriculture needed technology to remain competitive, their lack of expertise in science & technology ultimately sealed the communists’ fate, as they were ill-equipped in a modern world. When communism took over, many rose through the ranks from being peasants, who now found themselves as officers. Most lacked basic education, so they made poor administrative decisions. In a democratic state, education is prevalent, which ensures a bright future for generations to come. Can you guess who leads the world in education today? It’s no longer western democratic states, according to a 2018 study, the #1 spot ranked for both math and science belongs to-China.
PISA 2018 Worldwide Ranking - average score of mathematics, science and reading - FactsMaps
...Read morefactsmaps.com
I'm not sure this is true anymore with venture capitalism and how the investment market has been going (as relevant to this forum). Tesla has run at a loss for many years, and investors were willing to tolerate that for expected future gains much longer down the line, and Tesla is not the only example of this. And don't forget private charity either, which essentially will never result in a profit for donors (at least the legit ones).
I think plenty of people are fine with socialism, but to tie it with communism is misleading and is part of the problem of why people have negative connotations whenever socialism is mentioned. Again, I think you would be very hard pressed to point to examples of successful communism, while this is not the case with socialism.This is why the west is terrified of challenging Chinese manufacturing. China isn’t the only socialist country doing this, Canada does the same for certain industries like Lumber, their government subsidizes lumber, so Biden responded by slapping a lumber tariff on Canada, which is why we’re paying so much more for lumber and homes these days. This tariff was first introduced by Trump, which caused a 20% rise in cost:
U.S. could double tariffs on Canadian lumber, despite soaring timber prices
The U.S. Commerce Department has released a report concluding that the United States must double its tariff on Canadian softwood lumber, raising the figure from 9% to 18%. As reported by Fortune, the increase would seek to combat alleged unfair Canadian trade practices, where lumber production is...archinect.com
Going forward, capitalist countries may need to pivot and adopt some form of social welfare and incentivize American industries in order to stay competitive against China, Canada and so many other countries. 100% capitalism will mean we’re ill-equipped to challenge socialism. The world has changed, can we pivot away from the mindset of “socialism” is BAD, socialism is communism? We may not, the feelings/perception against socialism/communism is vastly misunderstood in this.
By the time we get to full automation the world would have to move past capitalism and socialism, the entire planet will need to pivot towards universal basic income
sundaymorning
Active Member
A great article for “sanction deniers”/“anti-sanxx”:
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/XQUFAC6H2BPALIJUGN6HDA5DDI.jpg)
www.reuters.com
“March 25 (Reuters) - China's state-run Sinopec Group has suspended talks for a major petrochemical investment and a gas marketing venture in Russia, sources told Reuters, heeding a government call for caution as sanctions mount over the invasion of Ukraine.
The move by Asia's biggest oil refiner to hit the brakes on a potentially half-billion-dollar investment in a gas chemical plant and a venture to market Russian gas in China highlights the risks, even to Russia's most important diplomatic partner, of unexpectedly heavy Western-led sanctions.”
EXCLUSIVE China's Sinopec pauses Russia projects, Beijing wary of sanctions -sources
China's state-run Sinopec Group has suspended talks for a major petrochemical investment and a gas marketing venture in Russia, sources told Reuters, heeding a government call for caution as sanctions mount over the invasion of Ukraine.
www.reuters.com
“March 25 (Reuters) - China's state-run Sinopec Group has suspended talks for a major petrochemical investment and a gas marketing venture in Russia, sources told Reuters, heeding a government call for caution as sanctions mount over the invasion of Ukraine.
The move by Asia's biggest oil refiner to hit the brakes on a potentially half-billion-dollar investment in a gas chemical plant and a venture to market Russian gas in China highlights the risks, even to Russia's most important diplomatic partner, of unexpectedly heavy Western-led sanctions.”
The Ukrainians are doing counter battery now thanks to intel from NATO and their own equipment. However giving them anything that has much of a learning curve is a waste right now, they don't have the time to train people on new equipment. The counter battery radar would probably require that.
Sending them stuff that is easy to use and stuff they already have expertise in is what they need.
There are no deployable systems, only prototypes.
The Russian leaders are willing to absorb the losses, but the troops on the ground are thinking otherwise.
Biden said that sanctions don't deter, but he didn't say they don't work.
I agree communism didn’t work for China/Russia, China was able to pivot away from that to progress it’s economy to where it is today by a hybrid social/capitalist framework. In some ways, every Western nation has adopted more or less socialism: free education, college financial aid, medical care, healthcare, social security, EV incentives, etc.
I agree, capitalism combined with democracy and the fight to unionize and protect laborers from powerful/greedy business owners took the western world to where it is today. In the East, people weren’t just fighting greedy businessmen, they were fighting Czars and emperors who had much more power. The word of the emperors IS the law, and although communism failed, it was because the Czars and Emperors weren’t investing as much money into education, science and technology to begin with. The lower class had to depend on what they knew best, which was farming & agriculture; this was expected because the lower class living in poverty was most interested in filling their stomachs first, before they’re able to rebuild the economy the people needed to be fed. But even agriculture needed technology to remain competitive, their lack of expertise in science & technology ultimately sealed the communists’ fate, as they were ill-equipped in a modern world. When communism took over, many rose through the ranks from being peasants, who now found themselves as officers. Most lacked basic education, so they made poor administrative decisions. In a democratic state, education is prevalent, which ensures a bright future for generations to come. Can you guess who leads the world in education today? It’s no longer western democratic states, according to a 2018 study, the #1 spot ranked for both math and science belongs to-China.
PISA 2018 Worldwide Ranking - average score of mathematics, science and reading - FactsMaps
...Read more
Not only that, but the Chinese are also the most literate nation, also ranked #1 for reading. China is longer a country filled with peasants, they’ll get things done and can innovate just as good as anyone today. What they lack, is financial backing from individual investors, this is where their government comes in—Socialism. A strong authoritarian state that invests heavily in its manufacture is considered dangerous to the West. Pound for pound, the Chinese state run businesses will obliterate any individually owned capitalist venture as they have unlimited amounts of money and can operate at a loss for years. Whereas if a capitalist venture was operating at a loss in the West, it’ll be forced out of business as investors pack their bags and leave. This is why the west is terrified of challenging Chinese manufacturing. China isn’t the only socialist country doing this, Canada does the same for certain industries like Lumber, their government subsidizes lumber, so Biden responded by slapping a lumber tariff on Canada, which is why we’re paying so much more for lumber and homes these days. This tariff was first introduced by Trump, which caused a 20% rise in cost:
U.S. could double tariffs on Canadian lumber, despite soaring timber prices
The U.S. Commerce Department has released a report concluding that the United States must double its tariff on Canadian softwood lumber, raising the figure from 9% to 18%. As reported by Fortune, the increase would seek to combat alleged unfair Canadian trade practices, where lumber production is...
Going forward, capitalist countries may need to pivot and adopt some form of social welfare and incentivize American industries in order to stay competitive against China, Canada and so many other countries. 100% capitalism will mean we’re ill-equipped to challenge socialism. The world has changed, can we pivot away from the mindset of “socialism” is BAD, socialism is communism? We may not, the feelings/perception against socialism/communism is vastly misunderstood in this.
By the time we get to full automation the world would have to move past capitalism and socialism, the entire planet will need to pivot towards universal basic income
In capitalist systems, there is an incentive for someone to innovate. Create something new and you reap the rewards. That is lacking in the old communist systems do nobody felt much need to create anything new unless the bosses demanded it and then just do the minimum.
China added in the incentive factor and their economy took off.
Look at the scale of the forces involved. The Soviet forces of the 1940s were massively larger. They lost 650,000 at the Battle of Kiev in 1941 and still won the war. The war on the Eastern front all by itself was the largest war in history except the rest of WW II.
The losses as percentage of force for the Russians is unsustainably large now.
The Ukrainian calculus is they take a big hit now, but they have the potential of Russia being gone for good as an enemy. They also could get back their stolen territory if they maintain the resistance.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I can't find the report anymore, but I remember reading Zelensky or one of Ukraine's negotiators saying the request on their side is for Russia to move back to their positions since before the invasion, although obviously Ukraine will not recognize Crimea or the Donbas regions as independent from Ukraine. That will give Russia some sort of offramp for Russia to declare "victory" domestically and be more willing to accept negotiations.
From recent reports, there are zero indications Ukraine intends for a counteroffensive that takes back the entire Donbas and Crimea regions.
Ukraine's lead negotiator says talks with Russia could take months
One example doesn't make a trend, but this is a heck of a counter-argument to the "Hollywood doesn't love us" claim.
We in the west think he is lying, but people in Russia know there are many different ways of lying, and this is a vranjo-lie.
Bumping this quote:
Russian truth. This is interesting. After all, language tells how people think, how they perceive the world and how society thinks. The United States has two words for positive rights: "Liberty" and "freedom" and so on. Russia has two words for the truth and three words for the lie. It is certainly not a coincidence. The Russians have the word pravda, which is the truth but not the absolute truth. Rather, Pravda is the truth to get rid of awkward wicked situations. It’s a bit like a tactical truth. Istina is the opposite of a lie. Istina is true, as true as it can be. But pravda there is more, sometimes it can be true, sometimes it can be not so true. Three words to a lie. Vranjo is a noble lie. But it is a noble lie in a strategic level. It is also kind of a way to get rid of nasty situations. The Russians know it, we don't know it. We think that there is only truth and lie in the world It's just black and white, or plus and minus. We think so because we usually have it that way. The lie in Russia was born under the Mongol rule During Mongol rule: Violence and lying were a way to survive. This tradition has been since then in that system. Russia has word a krugovaja poruka, or gang guarantee. By the way, the Finnish word "porukka" (gang) comes from here. It means that when we have some set of people in a gang with a common goal. Be it the Kremlin leadership or the Russian armed forces or whatever. We have a common goal and when I will go out of the circle of the gang and will lie elsewhere. Those part of my gang shall hear that I lie. They don't judge me as a liar because they understand that I am using tactical truth (vranjo) to achieve the greater goals of our gang. The use of tactical truth, or a lie is accepted if it is made for the gang. Just like you can steal when you don’t steal too much or from the wrong guy. You also get to lie if you lie for the better good of the gang. Us in the West, the truth is black and white. A good book from Masha Gessen that I took with me here. "The Future is History" Worth reading to anyone interested in this theme. Masha Gessen talks about doublethink (as did Orwell in 1984). That is, at the kitchen table, different things are said than outside the doors. Here is a little the bit of the same situation. Everyone understands that Robert was talking about a different topic at the kitchen table than in public. Everyone understands why it happened. This is based on the group launching their own story, for example "We had nothing to do with the poisoning of Skripal." Or that "We have nothing to do with the shooting down of the Malaysian plane". This is based on the fact that we in the West, under the rule of law when we make an argument, we need to be able to 100 %, unequivocally prove the claim to be true. But when Russia makes an argument, there are always small gaps left here and there that we westerners start to think about, "Is that so?" The notion of lie and truth works differently in Russia. Examples: The Terijoki government (Russian attempt to make a puppet government to Finland in 1939) had a story that the working population of Finland was tired of the Mannerheim-Tanner (Marshal of the Finnish Defence Forces in the 1939) fascist junta and formed a government to liberate the Finnish people. Then when the Russians attacked they found out it wasn't quite the case as what the propaganda had said. Or this. The president said "We have nothing to do With interferencing the 2016 U.S. presidential election". He says just like that. The Russians who see and hear this know that "We were there, but we didn't get caught." Then the West thinks, "Well, who were they, if not Russians?" Because we don't realize the use of Russian tactical truth. When they went to Crimea, Putin said, "They are not Russian forces." If our commander-in-chief of the Finnish Defence Forces would deny the Finnish soldier that they are not Finnish soldiers, that would lead to unfortunate situations. The soldier would go on a strike or it would get depressed or something. But the Russians were proud that our president would be able to use tactical truth Putin said "They are not Russian forces." We started thinking here in the west, "Well, who are they then? Where did they come from?" Then they had two or three days to take over Crimea completely, then Putin remembered, "Oh, they were Russian troops after all". Or this shooting down of a Malaysian plane. It has been proven unequivocally that it was from the Russian 53rd Air Defense Brigade the missile that fired that plane down. The wildest stories that were moving in Russia were that when the situation was at its hottest, these people were already dead there on the plane. This story was spread. Those people who died in the accident did not die in the attack but they were already dead before the missile struck the plane. But no one questioned it because the Russians knew it was a tactical truth. They did not question how the captain of the plane was made to fly a plane full of dead people. No one questioned it because they knew it was a tactical truth. Or, in the Donbass region, brave miners went to fight the fascist junta in Kiev and then protest during which some civilian protesters forgot to take away their IDs of the Russian Armed Forces when participating to the protests. Or "We have nothing to do with the hacking of the DNC, the US Democratic Party." In fact, they got caught both the GRU, the Russian military intelligence service, and the FSB, the civilian intelligence, both caught on servers. Or that “We don’t have nothing to do with the poisoning of Skripal.” Except that there was a Russian intelligence colonel who had received a medal from Putin There was also a doctor present there who was tasked with making sure Chepiga, who was performing the poisoning operation on Skripal, would not be exposed to the poison himself. The funniest thing here is that this Chepiga's grandmother, who lives near Arkhangelsk, had in her foolishness gone to show a picture where Chepiga gets From the hand of Putin the Soviet medal. You never guess what happened to the Grandma after that? Grandma disappeared. Or that “we’re not involved in Eastern Ukraine". Here is the tomb of a 21-year-old paratrooper. In Pskov. Fallen in the Donbass. We need to understand that the use of Russian truth and falsehood is completely different from our thinking. If they say something, they won’t necessarily mean it, but the tactical truth is meant as an instrument to slip through a slightly open doorway to get out of a nasty situation."
I think Biden just misspoke when he said that. That's not unusual when he gets flustered. Overall, I think he's done a commendable job of uniting the Western powers against Putin's aggression. My comment was probably overly harsh. I voted for him once, and would happily do so again if the alternatives are the likes of Trump and Cruz.
Sanctions are primarily used as a method of coercion and deterrence, not as a means of inflicting suffering on civilian populations.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
For 2021 the EIA says: "According to Russia’s export statistics and partner country import statistics published by Global Trade Tracker, China received nearly one-third, or 1.4 million b/d, of Russia’s crude oil and condensate exports". I recall it being 2m+ in prior years, but maybe I just misremembered 1/3rd as 1/2. It doesn't change my point -- we can't shut down anywhere near 100% of Russia's oil exports.First I encourage you to read this brief opinion piece that's from a pro russian oil news aggregator, oilprice.com.
Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine Is A Catastrophe For Its Oil Industry | OilPrice.com
While Europe and the United States will suffer in the short term for turning their backs on Russian oil, the consequences for Russia will be catastrophicoilprice.com
So lets start with your take that China buys half of Russia's oil. They buy 14% of Russian oil. 14%.
Insurance costs more, but it's still available.
You're making my point for me. Putin doesn't care about 2024 right now.
Whey did they not compete? Anyway, I never said Russia will skate by unaffected. I said quite the opposite -- their economy will suck. But they'll still export enough to pay for necessary imports. And that's all that matters to Putin.
So Putin will call off the invasion to make like easier for future leaders? That's really your thesis?
Look, it's remotely possible economic hardship will stir mass unrest in the streets. Putin definitely cares about that. I strongly doubt he'd have gone in if he knew it would go this badly, and that the west would seize his reserves. But he did go in, and now he can't back down. That'd mean death and disgrace.
sundaymorning
Active Member
I’m well aware of the difference between socialism and communism, are you aware of how China is only communists by name since they’ve already entered into into a capitalist society? They’re functioning more like a socialist country than a communist one (although it’s a hybrid between the three), I’m speaking in terms of economics here. If you don’t agree with this then we can end the topic because I don’t think I can get through to you on this matter, and you won’t be able to change my mindset on this.
None of this is relevant to China being the 2nd largest economy in the world, and will become the leading economy around 2030 despite being what most westerners argue is a failing system in communism. If your assessment is that communism is terrible and that China is communist, then how did they grow to become this powerful? This is where my argument that China has morphed itself from the communist doctrine of the past, but presently embraced a social/capitalist society, while maintaining elements of communism by name in politics.
I wouldn’t post an article I haven’t read over, let me lay out the arithmetic’s for you: the 4 Chinese cities mentioned above equates to around 200 million people, does New Jersey, NY, DC have 200 million people? not even close, last time I checked the entire US has around 320 million, and not all of us have great arithmetic/scientific skill sets in the US. Even if we took our best and brightest in the US, I doubt that our population can find 100 million to score as high as China.
You’re missing the point, how many Tesla
companies do you know out there? Why did so many solar companies go bankrupt in the US? We were fighting Chinese solar for awhile, which caused bankruptcies like this, ever heard of Solyndra?
Solyndra misled the feds out of over $500 million. Why you should care | Fortune
Years after we all thought Solyndra was gone. A new government report brings it back with a sort-of explanation.
fortune.com
Minnesota solar installer bankruptcies leave unfinished projects, calls for better oversight | Energy News Network
The state’s solar energy trade group has made improving consumer protections a priority after a string of bankruptcies in recent years left dozens of customers stuck with unfinished projects.
energynews.us
Imagine invested in these companies for years without profits while fighting Chinese state subsidized solar. How come investors didn’t “stick around” with these money losers for years on out? Simply put, the Chinese were exporting cheap solar and we couldn’t compete. Most of us here don’t realize this but I’m 90% certain Solarcity would’ve went bankrupt had Tesla not buy them out. Sentiments and morale among investors during those days were some of the lowest in Tesla’s history (I remember every drop because I’ve been with this company since 2012). The point here is that when you’re a private firm operating in a capitalist society, your chance of surviving vs a Chinese state owned enterprise is quite low. This is because they can artificially drop prices unbearably low till makes zero sense for you to stay in business, and when you go bankrupt, that’s when they’ll raise prices to normal levels (this is what happened to US shall/fracking, the industry couldn’t survive because OPEC dropped gas prices below their survival threshold).
Once in a generation you get a company like Tesla who beats the odds, don’t get too confident with hubris here because if the Chinese decides to play favorites with Nio and Xpeng, they can dump $100s of billions into that company for decades just to have a “halo” brand, and guess what? They can do that with any company of their choosing since we owe them over $1 trillion in debt. To exacerbate this, they can also whisper into CATL’s ear to direct more batteries towards NIO/Xpeng if Elon decided one day to tweet against president Xi (perhaps asking Xi to fight against him for a prize in Ukraine). This is the benefit of running a social-capitalist economy, you get to pick your winners and losers. Although it’s unfair, unjust but you have to admit, it’s effective. Which is why China has arrived.
I’m not tying communism without socialism, reread my post. I’m stating that China had no other alternatives available to them, they adopted the first opportunity granted and are now economically acting like a hybrid of social-capitalism while maintaining their communist political system, hence they are only communist by name. To be entirely communist, you have to practice the doctrine like North Korea, which has a real dictator.
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SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Yeltsin's approval rating when he 'left office' was allegedly around 6%. Yeltsin allegedly picked Putin as his successor because Putin promised that he wouldn't come after Yeltsin for all the s#it tonne of money Yeltsin and his family 'skimmed' off the Russia people. In order for Putin to stay safe in the long run – doesn't he also need to care about the future?
And also: There are speculations that Putin has started a second family with a 'mistress'. If that is true, then perhaps he cares about her and their kids? If future leaders decide to go after Putin – what kind of wealth can his 'mistress' and their kids expect for their future?...
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We need to have realistic expectations.
For now the best hope is a negotiated settlement, and the biggest factor in driving some Russian concessions on more Ukrainian military successes, and more depletion of the Russian military personnel and assets..
Putin needs a deal he can spin as a victory, in the long run there may be internal unrest, and this may cost his job/life, but IMO that is more likely to happen in the years after a deal was struck.
The economic damage to Russia is a slow moving train wreck that will probably take decades to unwind.
Businesses that have left Russia will be very slow to come back, the EU will accelerate the move away for Russian Oil and Gas as far as possible.
Eventually the truth about the war and Russian casualties will be very hard to hide.
I don't doubt the Russian timetable for a resolution by May 9, another 6-7 weeks of this could be very painful for them, it is more likely to get worse in terms of military and economic costs.
The hard part is finding a deal that Putin can spin as a win, that is acceptable to the Ukrainians. Even harder is finding that deal by May 9. Talks can quickly get bogged down and stall for weeks.
You don't have to shut down 100%. Shutting down 40% means someone else in the world claims the market in the EU that means russia has to dump the oil. Read the opinion piece, it's just one of many..they all say the same thing. Remember, none of this oil constraint in physical, it is political. It was a opec plus russia agreement to manipulate supply to drive USA out and keep prices profitable. It relied on Iran not being able to pump and USA not producing exports and Venezuela not producing and Canada not producing. At these prices everyone is rolling production back on. Russia has lost the political ability to regulate the markets.
Russia has always played a long game, why do you think 2024 doesn't matter?
Why do you think imports matter? Imports of what? China is not impacted. Imports of machinery from EU...that's stopped. Doesn't matter if Russia has some earnings, they'll be back to USSR days. In my industry the equipment makers have stopped. No delivery of parts to russia, 3 manufacturers is about 95% of the market and none of them will ship anything to Russia. When the equipment there breaks, the mills they support will run out of raw materials. I give it 12 months.
China just pulled the plug on a huge gas plant project.
I think the sanctions will bite, and will bite harder in a few months when the oil supplies are online to replace Russia. When the EU and USA ban russian oil, then it gets interesting. September?
What is happening in Kherson is mixed reporting..
I'm more inclined to believe the last Twitter post, Ukraine isn't trying to take back Kherson at this stage.
Russians doing a tactical retreat from some areas, and consolidating on the East/South is possible.
We might have a better idea in 24-48 hours, the Russians are probably up to Plan C now.
Nope 100% agree. You missed few more of the pre war Soviet German collaborations:
1922 Rapallo treaty of military collaboration (with Weimar republic though, renewed in 1926 broken by soviets in late 1933) giving both USSR and Germany a way to train new modern armies. This includes armor and air schools attended by both Soviet and German officers that later would face on the battlefield. Chemical weapons research too
1935 credit agreement providing Nazi Germany with raw materials
1935 Molotov at the 7th communist party Congress stressing the importance of good relations with Hitler's Germany
1939 Ribbentrop Molotov pact and secret protocol giving USSR part of Poland, the Baltics and part of Romania (USSR in 1940 actually pisses off Germany by biting more of Romania than agreed - at time Romania is Germany's ally and main oil source)
1940 October November USSR holds negotiations to join the Axis (Hitler not really interested as operation Barbarossa is already in planning)
Also on slightly different topic, but around the same time
Late 1920 conflict between the Communist Party of Germany (KPD) and the social Democratic party fundamentally contributed to the demise of the Weimar Republic. USSR complete control of KPD pushes it towards conflict with the social democrats and creates an opportunity for the NSDAP to come to power in 1933. Bonus points for getting former socialist and later communist party member Joseph Goebbels his start in politics
1932-1933 Holodomor, the big famine that killed millions of Ukrainians
1940 Katyn Forrest massacre of polish army officers (another reason why the poles love the Russians)
1945 the rape (literally) of Germany by advancing soviet troops. Not quite the rape of Nanking but same category
1945 May USSR finally declares war on Japan so they can occupy the Kurile Islands.
Bottom line, the rest of the world should appreciate the sacrifices of the common Soviet soldiers in defeating Hitler. USSR on the other side has played the whole period only and only to their own interest, from the position of a bully whenever possible. Pretty much the same as the others but with a heavier dose of disregard for human life than most other countries.
For a lot of reasons personal and otherwise I did read quite a bit about this part of Europe history
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In the US for people born before about 1980 socialism=communism unless you've done the work to think about it. It's a meme that was heavily pushed in the political sphere during the cold war. It's not common in those born after 1980 and never caught on much outside the US.
Biden had a very bad stutter as a kid. He managed to overcome it, but the techniques to overcome a stutter cause other speech issues like aphasia. His mind has all the concepts crystal clear, but he has trouble spitting them out.
I know it personally. I'm mildly dyslexic and I've always had aphasia. I've learned to compensate but I often have similar stumbles to Biden when I'm speaking.
