Russia/Ukraine conflict

[Xdama]

(Personally I can do someting about Brexit - shut the UK business down, lay everyone off, spend my time outside the UK, pay little or no tax in the UK, avoid the 52% who voted for it wherever possible, and make sure to only vote for parties who aim to Rejoin or otherwise reverse the stupidity).

Why anyone uses that filthy rag for even cat litter is beyond me. And anybody who quotes from it should understand that stupidity is contagious. Brexit is proof enough of that.

Meanwhile here is the main gas network diagram

Gazprom Pipelines

Map of Gas Pipelines of Gazprom and the Former Soviet Union

eegas.com

Here is recent German gas use

Energy in Germany - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And here is the IEA's plan to cut out Russian gas and oil and coal, which is pretty much what is going into effect pronto !

How Europe can cut natural gas imports from Russia significantly within a year - News - IEA

How Europe can cut natural gas imports from Russia significantly within a year - News from the International Energy Agency

www.iea.org

And, if I hear correctly (but I am not certain of this) the gas lines going into Ukraine are currently in reverse flow, that was one of the things the EU invested in after the 2014 invasion by Russia. I think the Polish ones are as well at the moment.

Any company (like the Gazprom subsidiaries) that does not fill up their storage will get taken over and nationalised in all the EU member states. Rumours are that the Gazprom subsidiary in the UK is also on the verge of being called into special measures for much the same reasons as they can't buy any gas, and their banks and customers don't want them.

Thank you for quantifying with facts as you usually do. The last article you posted quantifies German imports of Russian gas at 40% of its use. One of the others states they currently have no LNG storage so again quantifies they need to build such storage.

Your views on Brexit are similar to mine but I’m not sure how you would vote for a party that means to reverse it as no likely winner of any elections seems to be leaning that way currently. Nor if you live outside UK would you be eligible to vote in any referendum (under previous rules), I wasn allowed to vote last time as I was out of the country. Paying no tax here and shutting down your UK company is just a bit “taking your bat n ball home with you” for me but each to their own. Brexit certainly hasn’t helped my job availability in the slightest, losing me the whole of the EU as possible workplaces in offshore wind. Not many are willing to take UK contractors on with the added difficulty of losing the allowable working days without visas.

 

[petit_bateau]

The Germans are planning two FLNG regasification terminals, and if you read my weekday energy news clipping service you will see that can be done fairly fast. A stretch to do it this year, but next year is possible. This winter may be tight.

(I could not recommend to my board that we should remain in the UK post Brexit. That factory is now shuttered and the machinery relocated and working in the EU. The workforce no longer includes the British.)

(British voting rules are changing for overseas people. That is most likely to be consequential in Scotland and Nortern Ireland in the first instance imho)

 

[AlexUA]

Tesla Model S RIP, Bucha. Before/now

 

[CatB]

Tesla Model S RIP, Bucha. Before/now

View attachment 789166

So sorry to see this.
Hope you and your family are safe.

 

[Skipdd]

I didn’t see this posted, but may have missed it. This article highlights that many parts required for Russian weapons are manufactured in Ukraine. For example, “The arms restocking crisis will affect the production of T-72 battle tanks, one of the main armoured vehicles of the Russian army. Systems that launch their projectiles are manufactured in Izyum, an eastern Ukrainian city that Russian forces have failed to capture.” And, “It is understood that Russia will also be unable to restock with Kh-55 cruise missiles, which are launched from the air and can carry nuclear warheads, because they rely on imported components.” The engine for the Kh-55 is made in Kharkiv.

I understand Izyum is in the east. Critical for Ukraine to retain this.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/04/01/vladimir-putin-running-missiles-parts-made-ukraine/

 

[Skipdd]

This is the first I’ve heard of this.

China carried out massive cyberattack operation on Ukraine - report
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-703024

 

[X Fan]

This is the first I’ve heard of this.

China carried out massive cyberattack operation on Ukraine - report
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-703024

China is not Ukraine's friend although Putin's incompetence seems to have pulled China back from full fledged support

 

[Skipdd]

China is not Ukraine's friend although Putin's incompetence seems to have pulled China back from full fledged support

Yes - China and Russia were aligned pre-invasion. I was just surprised by their active engagement as part of the precursor to the invasion. And yes, now that things have gone badly for Russia and with the massive response by the West, China has hit pause.

 

[wdolson]

I just listened to Dandelionenergy.com interview with ARC. Heat pumps going about 8 ft. underground can heat homes in cold winters and cool homes in summer. Just using energy from heat underneath the earth's surface. This is already happening in the NE US. I would think Germany would love this as alternative energy sources from gas. Combined with solar and batteries no oil/gas needed.

They have been available on the west coast for a while. I remember seeing someone selling them at a home show pre-COVID.

I didn’t see this posted, but may have missed it. This article highlights that many parts required for Russian weapons are manufactured in Ukraine. For example, “The arms restocking crisis will affect the production of T-72 battle tanks, one of the main armoured vehicles of the Russian army. Systems that launch their projectiles are manufactured in Izyum, an eastern Ukrainian city that Russian forces have failed to capture.” And, “It is understood that Russia will also be unable to restock with Kh-55 cruise missiles, which are launched from the air and can carry nuclear warheads, because they rely on imported components.” The engine for the Kh-55 is made in Kharkiv.

I understand Izyum is in the east. Critical for Ukraine to retain this.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/04/01/vladimir-putin-running-missiles-parts-made-ukraine/

I've also read that some of the components needed for Russia's smart weapons are made in Germany and Slovenia.

The T-72 is not currently in production. The number on the tank was the year it was introduced for testing, recently they have been working to get the T-14 into production. They have been updating the T-72s they have with an update kit dated 2016, and the Russians have a lot of them to update. The T-90 is also very similar to the T-72 sharing a lot of components, but supposedly better protection. That has been called into doubt in this war.

The Ukrainians know how reliant the Russians are on parts from them too. I'm sure they mined their production facilities early in the war so if the Russians did take the cities, the manufacturing machinery to make the parts would be destroyed beyond repair.

 

[MC3OZ]

I didn’t see this posted, but may have missed it. This article highlights that many parts required for Russian weapons are manufactured in Ukraine. For example, “The arms restocking crisis will affect the production of T-72 battle tanks, one of the main armoured vehicles of the Russian army. Systems that launch their projectiles are manufactured in Izyum, an eastern Ukrainian city that Russian forces have failed to capture.” And, “It is understood that Russia will also be unable to restock with Kh-55 cruise missiles, which are launched from the air and can carry nuclear warheads, because they rely on imported components.” The engine for the Kh-55 is made in Kharkiv.

I understand Izyum is in the east. Critical for Ukraine to retain this.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/04/01/vladimir-putin-running-missiles-parts-made-ukraine/

My understanding is Izyum has fallen, but I agree that all parts and production machinery that Russia could use have been destroyed well in advance.

In this phase of the war Russia having some success in the South/East isn't entirely unexpected.

IMO Ukraine will make Russia pay a price for any gains, and also built up its resources, eventually the war will probably grind to another stalemate.

There are some possible early indications that Putin might be prepared to meet Zelensky, if that happens in the next 2 weeks, a negotiated settlement is 50/50.

A negotiated settlement is still the best outcome for both sides.

 

[Skipdd]

This appears to be a good article. “In interviews Thursday and Friday, the former commander of the US Special Operations Command in Europe, retired US Army Major General Mike Repass, gave his well-informed view of the war in Ukraine. For the past six years, he has advised the Ukrainian military on a US government contract.” He offers his perspective on what would be most helpful for Ukraine. And what the likely military objectives are for Russia at this point. I found it informative.

Retired Army major general: The Russian military invasion has peaked
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/02/opinions/russian-military-invasion-has-peaked-repass-bergen/

 

[mars_or_bust]

This is beyond words...

Medieval monsters... Russia must completely lose this war, it is the only way to have peace in Europe.

Almost 300 people buried in “mass grave” in Bucha, dozens of bodies found in the streets

Alyona Mazurenko - Saturday, 2 April 2022, 23:27

www.pravda.com.ua

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Yes - China and Russia were aligned pre-invasion. I was just surprised by their active engagement as part of the precursor to the invasion. And yes, now that things have gone badly for Russia and with the massive response by the West, China has hit pause.

China hoped that if Russia successfully conquered Ukraine without much of a fuss or protest from the West, they would become free to invade and take Taiwan by force.

However Russia was completely incompetent and the West responded by economically eviscerating Russia. As far as Taiwan's fate goes, it could not have been a better outcome for the Taiwanese and simultaneously the worst possible outcome for Emperor Xi. Now Xi knows that the West will retaliate with absolute economic annihilation if he even thinks of a military solution to Taiwan's intransigence.

 

[Singuy]

China hoped that if Russia successfully conquered Ukraine without much of a fuss or protest from the West, they would become free to invade and take Taiwan by force.

However Russia was completely incompetent and the West responded by economically eviscerating Russia. As far as Taiwan's fate goes, it could not have been a better outcome for the Taiwanese and simultaneously the worst possible outcome for Emperor Xi. Now Xi knows that the West will retaliate with absolute economic annihilation if he even thinks of a military solution to Taiwan's intransigence.

China and Taiwan has extremely strong co-dependency economic wise. However the U.S likes to mingle not only with military weapon sales but also tries to dictates who a public traded company like TSMC/Intel/Nvidia/AMD can sell their chips to, or software companies like google who they can have access to the play store. The deterioration of strong ties between China and Taiwan is caused by the U.S, and for the past 2 decades China had close to zero reasons to invade Taiwan as they are not recognized as their own sovereign country by the U.S or by the UN.

Currently if there's one thing the democrats and the republicans can agree on is who can antagonize China more as their GDP is looking to surpass the U.S in the upcoming decade. China understands the new world order, which is not to be stupid like Russia and try to change maps with military might. It's all about soft power using economic might, hence all the investments in Africa and the pacific. So how this plays out is determined more on how the U.S plays the game more than China.

 

[sundaymorning]

This is for the anti-sanction crowd who are still questioning the effectiveness of Biden’s $1.3 trillion worth of sanctions against Russia. Here’s some more images of how the lives of average Russians are being affected by sanctions.

The idea is that these slow burn will eventually affect the middle class.

 

[wdolson]

This is beyond words...

Medieval monsters... Russia must completely lose this war, it is the only way to have peace in Europe.

Almost 300 people buried in “mass grave” in Bucha, dozens of bodies found in the streets

Alyona Mazurenko - Saturday, 2 April 2022, 23:27

www.pravda.com.ua

This came up today

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510168073831165956

It appears the Russians were planning genocide in Ukraine last fall. The WindOfChange letters also talk about how the Russians planned to keep killing Ukrainians until all that were left were the passive ones willing to accept Russian rule.

This is right up there with what the Nazis did. I'm reminded again and again that the authoritarian playbook: accuse the other guys of being/doing exactly what you're either doing or planning to do.

Off topic, for moderator: for whatever reason, the font in this forum now appears in bold on both my mobile devices. Even as I write this, it is in bold. i cannot deselect the bold setting. I haven’t changed anything in my settings. Is there a changed setting I don’t know about? Thanks.

I posted in another thread a few hours ago and it was bold there. The forum has since reverted to normal font.


Purported internal Russian report leaked with the casualty totals

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510185195756007425

Translation
"Inside - excerpt from the internal report in the Russian Federation on the morning of April 2: "Irretrievable military-operational losses of manpower of personnel Armed Forces of the Russian Federation - 17,549 people. PMC - 5,366 people. The total loss of manpower of the personnel of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and Russian PMCs is 22,915 people"

 

[UnknownSoldier]

China and Taiwan has extremely strong co-dependency economic wise. However the U.S likes to mingle not only with military weapon sales but also tries to dictates who a public traded company like TSMC/Intel/Nvidia/AMD can sell their chips to, or software companies like google who they can have access to the play store. The deterioration of strong ties between China and Taiwan is caused by the U.S, and for the past 2 decades China had close to zero reasons to invade Taiwan as they are not recognized as their own sovereign country by the U.S or by the UN.

Currently if there's one thing the democrats and the republicans can agree on is who can antagonize China more as their GDP is looking to surpass the U.S in the upcoming decade. China understands the new world order, which is not to be stupid like Russia and try to change maps with military might. It's all about soft power using economic might, hence all the investments in Africa and the pacific. So how this plays out is determined more on how the U.S plays the game more than China.

Is this the China-Taiwan version of "It's the West's fault for antagonizing Russia"?

 

[Sandor]

This is for the anti-sanction crowd who are still questioning the effectiveness of Biden’s $1.3 trillion worth of sanctions against Russia. Here’s some more images of how the lives of average Russians are being affected by sanctions.

The idea is that these slow burn will eventually affect the middle class.

The sugar craziness can be explained by a single term "samogon". Because vodka is too expensive these days and Motherland patriotism can't survive without lots and lots of alcohol.

 

[MC3OZ]

Is this the China-Taiwan version of "It's the West's fault for antagonizing Russia"?

I understand where Singuy is coming from, IMO China is a completely different case to Russia.

I've have regularly cringed as our current Australian government messaging on China has resembled an angry guy shouting abuse.
What was needed in stead was "polite, constructive, uncompromising and firm".
Unfortunately one of our politicians Dutton is a bigoted moron, who loves to denigrate overseas nations, not just China, some of our pacific neighbours.

The US has done slightly better, but again I sometimes sense US politicians playing to a domestic audience.

To push back effectively against China, we don't need angry slogans designed for domestic political consumption.

Just tell them where the lines are drawn, and tell them politely in private.

We still need to take all necessary diplomatic and military steps to counter their influence. But IMO doing that quietly and professionally is more effective, and perhaps more intimidating.

Actions speak louder than words. often politicians playing to their domestic political audience are practicing poor diplomacy.

 

[MC3OZ]

In the case of Russia we should make every effort to give Ukraine everything they want and if we need to push the boundaries "get creative" but do it in private and in ways that are hard to detect and even harder to prove.

It is up to Ukraine to decide when to end the war, and on what terms.

Holding Russia to account for war crimes is a separate issue, it is best if the wider international community does that via a combination, of sanctions business decisions, sporting and cultural boycotts, consumer boycotts, travel bans confiscation of oligarch assets.

it is important to draw the line on war crimes, and keep it drawn for decades, if that is what it takes. Let Russia know we will never forgive or forget.