-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
I have been arguing from the beginning of this conflict that Europe is not going to be able to shut off Russian oil overnight. I'm very much a realist about it, but Europe is looking for alternative sources now. They will not get rid of Russian oil this year unless Russia goes offline (which could happen if a civil war starts). I never said it was going to happen quickly.
The US has been working on a new nuclear deal with Iran to get their sanctions lifted. I think the US found Venezuela was going to need too much work to get their oil flowing again. The pressure is on many countries to increase oil production now.
Europe realizes now they made a deal with the devil and they are working to stop buying Russian oil. Those who understand the economics and logistics know it's impossible to achieve overnight, but there is a lot of public pressure to get it done. The European politicians need to start telling their people what that involves because it will be a painful process.
In western militaries anybody from a sergeant to a general could look like they were in command, and many senior sergeants are the same age as a general. Rather junior people are empowered to take action when needed, so the guy giving orders over the comms could be a lieutenant or a captain or in some cases an NCO.
For a sniper or a comms snooper who can't see rank, it's difficult to tell who is in charge. But in the Russian military they essentially don't have an NCO corps and they have such a top down military that the guy giving orders is almost always a senior officer. The Ukrainians took out a senior general who tried to straighten out the convoy to nowhere when he showed up at the front of the convoy and started giving orders a Ukrainian sniper took him out.
It's actually very very simple to replace the russian oil. OPEC+ is to blame for restricting supply by most of that. Iran producing would add another 1-2 and the USA can supply the rest. In fact Chinese decrease in consumption has added over a million a day due to Shanghai being shut and that escalates. It's not a physical production constraint. If Venezuela and Libyian production came on line as well we'd he in oversupply. We have to do our part in the west to eliminate ICEs as rapidly as possible. The EU is moving for a ban on Russian oil and that would be a knife to Russia.
Every EV sold and used replaces 12 barrels per year. Thus the need for all EVs possible. crappy GM evs, to mediocre Ford and VW EVs. They are all additive. Gartner is predicting 6 million to be sold in 2022. That would be a replacement of 72 million barrels. Nothing to sneeze at... almost 2 days of woldwide production. Others predicts 12 million EVs sold in 2022. Most of the projections have half of the sales being in China. In some ways it doesn't matter as the oil market is global and reduced demand is reflected in the vehicles. Every EV sold is a tiny razor to the oil industry and thus to Russia. At some point replacing ICEs and scrapping them will create a tipping point. Every EV...every nissan leaf and ford lightening is a boon for Ukraine.
It's why, in my view, Tesla needs to be extraordinarily focused on the 4680 rollout and NOT on FSD and Twitter and inane things like that. We are literally at war due to oil. The 4680 rollout has been slow at best. Europe needs the 4680 in the worst way...yesterday.
Every EV sold and used replaces 12 barrels per year. Thus the need for all EVs possible. crappy GM evs, to mediocre Ford and VW EVs. They are all additive. Gartner is predicting 6 million to be sold in 2022. That would be a replacement of 72 million barrels. Nothing to sneeze at... almost 2 days of woldwide production. Others predicts 12 million EVs sold in 2022. Most of the projections have half of the sales being in China. In some ways it doesn't matter as the oil market is global and reduced demand is reflected in the vehicles. Every EV sold is a tiny razor to the oil industry and thus to Russia. At some point replacing ICEs and scrapping them will create a tipping point. Every EV...every nissan leaf and ford lightening is a boon for Ukraine.
It's why, in my view, Tesla needs to be extraordinarily focused on the 4680 rollout and NOT on FSD and Twitter and inane things like that. We are literally at war due to oil. The 4680 rollout has been slow at best. Europe needs the 4680 in the worst way...yesterday.
Russia currently exports about 7.6 million barrels a day (2.8 billion a year) of oil and oil products (they sell a lot of refined oil too. Before the was almost all US import of oil from Russia was in the form of diesel.
72 million barrels a year is 2.6% of Russian oil output. It will add up over time, but it's a drop in the bucket short term.
Spooling up production around the world will help reducing dependent on Russian oil, but it's not going to completely happen this year.
Factbox: How much oil does the European Union import from Russia?
If Russia devolves into a civil war, which is a possible scenario, Russian oil could cut off suddenly. If I was rebelling against the Russian government, one of my first targets would be oil pipelines. If Russian oil was shutdown suddenly, it would throw the world oil markets into turmoil and gas prices everywhere would go nuts.
The governor of the Mykolaiv Oblast says the Russian troops are fighting with one another. There are also reports that the new recruits are bottom of the barrel. I read elsewhere that the Russians are taking a lot of recruits who would be classified as class IV by the US: severe learning disabilities, criminally inclined, poor health etc.
An article on the loss of the Moskva
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App
Picture from after the hit
Read the thread for detail
Last edited:
Your numbers are far far off for Russian oil. It is actually barely less than 4.7 mbpd at the start of this recent conflict. About half of that went to Europe. What Europe really needs is to replace 2.4 mbpd. That's not an impossible goal. Iran Venezuela and US increase could pretty much cover that. It's why the EU thinks they'll be able to transition off Russian energy faster than they had previously thought. The key really is to force SA and UAE to increase production.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
This is spot on and one of the key differences in military operational structure between the East and West.
Your numbers are far far off for Russian oil. It is actually barely less than 4.7 mbpd at the start of this recent conflict. About half of that went to Europe. What Europe really needs is to replace 2.4 mbpd. That's not an impossible goal. Iran Venezuela and US increase could pretty much cover that. It's why the EU thinks they'll be able to transition off Russian energy faster than they had previously thought. The key really is to force SA and UAE to increase production.
The Reuters article I quoted included refined fuels, which make up a large percentage of their exports. The eia data only included non-refined oil. That's the difference.
Am curious about what the world historians and strategists in this thread make of this. The article says that Lend-Lease is basically a program that the US hasn’t used since WWII and is designed to provide aid to a country over the long-haul and even during periods where the country has no money to pay for the things provided. And that the US provided this aid to Russia after WWII to help it recover.
From the article, “Even today, Russians remember that “thanks to lend lease, the Soviet Union defeated fascism” in World War II. But now they see lend lease is being used against Russia.” This sends “a strong message” that the war in Ukraine is not going as Moscow claims and that “the whole world” is now united against it and will remain so.”
New American Lend-Lease Program Sends Powerful Signal To Russians – OpEd
https://www.eurasiareview.com/18042022-new-american-lend-lease-program-sends-powerful-signal-to-russians-oped/
From the article, “Even today, Russians remember that “thanks to lend lease, the Soviet Union defeated fascism” in World War II. But now they see lend lease is being used against Russia.” This sends “a strong message” that the war in Ukraine is not going as Moscow claims and that “the whole world” is now united against it and will remain so.”
New American Lend-Lease Program Sends Powerful Signal To Russians – OpEd
https://www.eurasiareview.com/18042022-new-american-lend-lease-program-sends-powerful-signal-to-russians-oped/
I agree this needs to be the highest priority.
IMO we are seeing 4680 production in Austin before Berlin, because the team and equipment was only available to do one, not both.
Berlin has to be a priority.
We call tell the priority is to ramp Berlin and Austin Model Y this year, perhaps increasing the annual run rate by 1 million cars.
Elon is now talking about Lithium mining/extraction that is because raw materials are looming as a limiting factor.
My expectation has always been that the Tesla process of extracting Lithium from clay will eventually work, and Tesla will get to 3 TWh of cell production by 2030.
I also expect others to ramp up their battery/EV production plans.
I had an investment discussion with my nephew recently, he still has some oil stocks, I basically told him batteries are where it is at, and ditch crypto.
Aside from Russia, I'll also be happy when the Saudis and the Koch brothers are no longer making money from oil.
Lend lease was cooked up by Roosevelt to keep the UK in the fight, but it was offered to all US allies in the war including the USSR. The Soviet reconquest of their territory rode in US made trucks. The US also provided a fair number of aircraft and some tanks, but the Russians didn't like US tanks. They made great use of American P-39 fighters ans B-25 bombers.
I don't know of much given to the Russians after the war, but there may have been.
It looks like the Ukrainians are working to surround the Russian forces at Izium
Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien on Thread Reader App
It's curious the supposed vast supplies of artillery ammunition the Russians have is missing at Izium. They have been firing almost nothing at the Ukrainians as they work to surround the Russian salient.
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App
The Russians have moved a lot of forces into the Izium area, but as they have done throughout this war, they left their rear area open and the Ukrainians are taking advantage of it. They could end up with quite a number of BTGs cut off and isolated.
I think Tesla took their eye off the ball 2 years ago and failed to close all the battery supply chain constraints. Lithium as well as a few other critical trace metals. Lithium though was the elephant in the room, they actually did a good job of securing the Ni
No it also includes condensates (refined products). That reuters data is not correct.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
"Putin critic on what has to happen for Putin's inner circle to turn on him
CNN's Paula Reid talks to longtime Putin critic and former chess champion Garry Kasparov about concerns around potential escalations in Ukraine, including the potential for Russia to use nuclear options."
petit_bateau
Active Member
Hmmm.......
Condensate ought not to be a refined product. It is ordinarily the very light liquids that condense out of the gas upstream of the refinery in gas-rich well fluids. In oil-rich well fluids it tends to stay within the crude itself. Some condensates are sufficiently similar to petrol (gasoline) that they can be used directly with no refining, but that would be a risky bet in a modern engine.
(I've not looked closely at the Russian production numbers myself so I have don't have any detailed commentary on that. It is true that a lot of refined middle distillates come out of Russia, historically at least).
My personal opinion is that an embargo of Russian oil, coal, and gas are all useful and worth doing expeditiously. Why : 1. Due to physical export system constraints, if Europe won't take it then Russia simply can't get quite a lot out to anywhere else. 2. Due to financial system taint risks any Russian product that does get out is now selling at a discount so the net benefit to Russian economy reduces. 3. It signals to other 'nasty' regimes that they too ought not to try being stupid in the future. 4. It signals to allied regimes that they need to act in concert or they will not actually be counted as an allied regime. 5. It signals to neutrals that there is no such thing as true neutrality in a globalised world (which we have known now for ~150-years, so even the slowcoaches ought to have gotten the message by now). 6. It signals to our own populations in the allied Western nations, that we too need to accept pain in order to prevent the needless deaths we are witnessing, and that there is no pain-free and risk-free pathway. In all this, the more we do, and the faster we do it, the better the outcome. Just imho)
Tiger
Active Member
It is funny, though, that if Russia were to use nuclear weaphons, the European countries would finally do a 100% embargo on all Russian products. Seems like waiting for that is a fools errand?
The KGB educated Putin may have some serious issues with the new anti-propaganda digitally weaponized Ukraine. This article is remarkable in that it will provide indisputable evidence for the ICC of war crimes that even identifies the individuals committing these crimes. It also will provide the Russian citizens proof of what is really happening. They then can either continue drinking vodka and pretend they are OK or take some positive actions to preserve what is left of Russia. President Biden has made some great moves here.
The best weapons used to be ink on paper; now its bits in cyberspace. I only see positive results here thanks to the Ukrainians and all the countries that are supporting them.
time.com
The best weapons used to be ink on paper; now its bits in cyberspace. I only see positive results here thanks to the Ukrainians and all the countries that are supporting them.
How Ukraine Is Crowdsourcing Digital Evidence of War Crimes
It's a systematic effort unlike any in the history of modern warfare
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
I guess one argument is that the West 'still' has 'additional consequences' if Putin would do the unthinkable and go nuclear. If he were to go nuclear then that hammer – a 100% embargo on all Russian products – could drop.
In a world were there is a 100% guarantee that Putin won't do the unthinkable I support a 100% embargo on all Russian products. Do we live in that world? I guess I for one don't know...
Tiger
Active Member
That is just cool-aid served by Russia, they will continue until they are stopped. 100% embargo will make Putin fall and someone else take the leadership, someone who can negotiate free from the Embargos. If they would go nuclear they would suffer indefinite embargo and probably all countries will join the embargo.
glhs272
Unnamed plug faced villian
The way to prevent nukes being used, is to reiterate that it would trigger a reciprocal response, i.e. a nuke being dropped on them... Mutually Assured Destruction. ..and say it loudly.
Re: having citizens report enemy troop movements. What then will keep Russian soldiers from classifying them as spies, not civilians, and mistreating them accordingly? And yes, of course, they already are; and I'm sure we all see the distinction - I just fear that will make things "complicated" during the trials. Those mis-informed, ill-trained invaders may be able to make a case that they had reason to consider their victims un-uniformed soldiers.The KGB educated Putin may have some serious issues with the new anti-propaganda digitally weaponized Ukraine. This article is remarkable in that it will provide indisputable evidence for the ICC of war crimes that even identifies the individuals committing these crimes. It also will provide the Russian citizens proof of what is really happening. They then can either continue drinking vodka and pretend they are OK or take some positive actions to preserve what is left of Russia. President Biden has made some great moves here.
The best weapons used to be ink on paper; now its bits in cyberspace. I only see positive results here thanks to the Ukrainians and all the countries that are supporting them.
How Ukraine Is Crowdsourcing Digital Evidence of War Crimes
It's a systematic effort unlike any in the history of modern warfare
