Russia/Ukraine conflict

[SwedishAdvocate]

.../ If you really want to understand Russian culture and what is possible Kamil Galeev grew up in Russia and was recruited by the FSB. Instead he left and went to work for a Washington DC think tank. He analyzes culture for a living and he has lived Russian culture.
Latest Twitter Threads by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App

He has made the case a number of times that democracy for the entire country is impossible. However one of the realistic possible outcomes is the dissolution of Russia as a unified country. A number of the fragments may eventually become democracies, but the goal should be for stability and a lack of external ambitions. [My underline.] /...

I have read some of his writings that have been posted in this thread. But that is not enough to determine if what you write here about Galeev is true or not. But if what you write about Galeev is true then it sounds like he's a rather cleverly placed RuSSian agent...

 

[RobStark]

I did a quick search and maybe I found Q2 results from a previous year? EV sales are still in single digits percentage-wise, the Biden administration is shooting for 50% by 2030. If we're aggressive that might be possible.

That's just 50% of new car sales. Most of the ICE sold in 2030 will still be on the road in the 2040s.

2021 Q2 was 2.7% BEV market share according to Cox Automotive. With Tesla at ~2.1%. Experian or whoever has to estimate for some product lines that have multiple powertrains. Because many automakers won't give a breakdown between ICEv,HEV, PHEV and BEV

EV sales are growing and ICEv sales are falling. In part because legacy OEMs are prioritizing chips/supplies for BEVs over some ICEv. Growing BEV sales makes Wall Street happy. Falling share of a dying market (ICEv), even if profitable, is ok if you are growing share in the market of the future.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

.../ In a dictatorship the dictator becomes the state and the state becomes the dictator. Putin did start this war, but the rhetoric coming out of the Kremlin is tailored to punch the buttons in the heads of most Russians. [My underline.] /...

...or to punch the buttons in as many Russians as possible. And no-one knows how many those are. It is impossible to know. Putler and the Kremlin doesn't need a majority of the population to continue to stay in power. They 'only' need a certain critical number. And no-one know what that critical number is. And that critical number will possibly also vary over the coming months (or years).

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Dreaming about Russia turning into a liberal democracy is not realistic. /...

And who are you to determine what is "realistic" or not? Again: Prepare for the worst but WORK towards the best possible outcome!!!

For the Russians their short experiment with [democracy] in the 90s was a disaster. Those who remember that time think democracy is a weak form of government. /...

This is merely your OPINION! If the 90s was a disaster – which it was – then how would you describe RuSSia under Putler with a Genocide on Georgians and Ukrainians as well as a large part of his own RuSSian army?... Democracy is STILL the best form of government available on Planet Earth! Right?...

 

[wdolson]

Not really our problem, it is a matter for the Russians themselves to decide if what they are doing is working. I doubt life is thsst great there, when Ukraine joins the EU, life in Ukraine will be significantly better than life in Russia.

The people with voices we hear are the ruling elite, in every country there is a lot of variation in terms of personality types, life experience, and opinions. When a system falls apart, supressed opinions msy bubble to the surface.

If people can get out of Russia, they probably will. We do need to let Russia work out their own problems, but the world community needs to stop anybody who messes with their neighbors.

According to Kamil Galeev the supressed opinions in Russia that might bubble to the surface might include some that are acceptable to the west, but they are not all ideas the west would like. Russia is a very different culture with very different attitudes from the west. The roots of the Ukrainian/Russian culture clash is that Ukraine is a European culture that originally was in Byzantium's orbit until that empire vanished. Russia's roots come a bit of Viking but much more from the Mongol Hoarde. They are a central Asian culture with some European trappings. Their answer to what comes next after Putin will come out of that cultural root.

I have read some of his writings that have been posted in this thread. But that is not enough to determine if what you write here about Galeev is true or not. But if what you write about Galeev is true then it sounds like he's a rather cleverly placed RuSSian agent...

He definitely isn't. He is part Tartar, which is an oppressed ethnic group. He is very anti-Putin and he would like to see Russia peacefully Balkanize. He knows Russian culture and has studied Chinese economics as well as lived in the UK and the US. He has a lot of perspective on the differences between cultures and how we're misunderstanding each other.

Understanding another culture prevents tunnel thinking assuming they are going to do what your culture would do. It might give insights into how to hurt the other culture in conflict also.

In WWII the US and Japanese had vast depths in the understanding of one another. One of Japan's top admirals Isoroku Yamamoto had lived in the US and understood US culture better than anyone else near the top. He predicted the course of the war very accurately when nobody listened to his warnings about attacking the US.

The US also made mistakes from not understanding the Japanese, though the US ended up listening more to people who did understand Japanese culture.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

He definitely isn't. He is part Tartar, which is an oppressed ethnic group. He is very anti-Putin and he would like to see Russia peacefully Balkanize. He knows Russian culture and has studied Chinese economics as well as lived in the UK and the US. He has a lot of perspective on the differences between cultures and how we're misunderstanding each other. /...

Regardless of who Galeev is – he is not some modern male variant of the Oracle of Delphi! He can not see the future any more than anyone else. He could be right. But he could also be wrong.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

.../ Russia is a very different culture with very different attitudes from the west. The roots of the Ukrainian/Russian culture clash is that Ukraine is a European culture that originally was in Byzantium's orbit until that empire vanished. Russia's roots come a bit of Viking but much more from the Mongol Hoarde. They are a central Asian culture with some European trappings. Their answer to what comes next after Putin will come out of that cultural root. /...

IMO you place way, way, way too much emphasis on this stuff! This was more than 500 years ago for crying out loud!...

 

[jerry33]

This is merely your OPINION! If the 90s was a disaster – which it was – then how would you describe RuSSia under Putler with a Genocide on Georgians and Ukrainians as well as a large part of his own RuSSian army?... Democracy is STILL the best form of government available on Planet Earth! Right?...

Only if there is an educated populace. Unfortunately, certain interests have been working against this since the 1950s in the U.S. because an uneducated populace is much easier to manipulate.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Only if there is an educated populace. Unfortunately, certain interests have been working against this since the 1950s in the U.S. because an uneducated populace is much easier to manipulate.

So in your opinion – what is better than Democracy?

Also: Keep in mind that the US variant of democracy seems like total crap to someone living in Sweden. You do not have proportionately representative elections. And your system is rigged so elections can still be won with a minority of the vote whereas the one who got the majority of the popular vote is declared to have lost(!) (aka the electoral system)... As a result you only really have two political parties(!) That is not a whole lot better than just one... As a comparison Sweden currently has eight political parties in our only legislature and supreme decision-making body. Imagine if there was no Senate and the House had some eight political parties as a result of proportionately representative elections where every party that got more than 4% (or some such) of the popular vote had representation...

I guess there are some over-simplification in the above – but the basic arguments still stand...

 

[jerry33]

So in your opinion – what is better than Democracy?

A Democracy with an Educated Populace.

 

[lolachampcar]

Capitalism is the very best democratic approach.
Unregulated Capitalism is the very worst democratic approach (it brings out the worst of human nature).

Sorry for such extreme views but (relying on my Swedish sayings) if the map and terrain disagree, believe the terrain.

 

[JRP3]

China speaking out about the Zaporizhzhia situation:

China urges Putin to end Russian roulette at Ukrainian nuclear plant after disaster near-miss

Beijing warns just one incident might cause a serious nuclear accident 'with irreversible consequences for the ecosystem and public health of Ukraine and its neighbouring countries'

inews.co.uk

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The average age of a car in the US is 12 years. At the rate of replacement if we had 100% EV production today, we would reach 50% EVs on the road around 2034. Currently about 1% of US sales are BEVs. We have no replacement for most naval and air uses of fossil fuels.

Fossil fuel usage may be showing some clear signs of decline in 5 years, but it will be far from dead.

Progress is happening but it's going to be slower than many people would like.

Coal is ubiquitous as a vital form of energy production across the globe. That industry has been dead for 5 years.

5 years from now, oil & gas profits will be so low for Russia that the oligarchs are likely to just flee to their chateau's never to be seen again.

In the wake of their yachts will likely be a couple decades of chaos.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

So in your opinion – what is better than Democracy?

Also: Keep in mind that the US variant of democracy seems like total crap to someone living in Sweden. You do not have proportionately representative elections. And your system is rigged so elections can still be won with a minority of the vote whereas the one who got the majority of the popular vote is declared to have lost(!) (aka the electoral system)... As a result you only really have two political parties(!) That is not a whole lot better than just one... As a comparison Sweden currently has eight political parties in our only legislature and supreme decision-making body. Imagine if there was no Senate and the House had some eight political parties as a result of proportionately representative elections where every party that got more than 4% (or some such) of the popular vote had representation...

I guess there are some over-simplification in the above – but the basic arguments still stand...

Don't turn this thread into one about US politics. Standing policy on TMC.

Second note: please dispend with words like 'Putler' and 'RuSSia'. This isn't Twitter.

 

[iPlug]

Ukrainian troops begin counter-offensive in Kherson region, says military command​

Ukraine has started a long-awaited counter-offensive in the country’s south, its southern military command has announced, amid reports that Ukrainian troops were able to break through Russian lines in the Kherson region. ​

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Ukraine’s southern command spokesperson, Natalia Humeniuk, was cited by Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne as saying:​

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Today we started offensive actions in various directions, including in the Kherson region.​

...​

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Soldiers deployed on the front lines have reportedly said they managed to break through the first line of Russian defence in the region.​

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The Guardian has not been able to verify these reports.​

Russia-Ukraine war live: Ukrainian troops begin counter-offensive in south, says military command

 

[petit_bateau]

Ukrainian troops begin counter-offensive in Kherson region, says military command​

Ukraine has started a long-awaited counter-offensive in the country’s south, its southern military command has announced, amid reports that Ukrainian troops were able to break through Russian lines in the Kherson region. ​

​

Ukraine’s southern command spokesperson, Natalia Humeniuk, was cited by Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne as saying:​

​

...​

​

Soldiers deployed on the front lines have reportedly said they managed to break through the first line of Russian defence in the region.​

​

The Guardian has not been able to verify these reports.​

Russia-Ukraine war live: Ukrainian troops begin counter-offensive in south, says military command

There appears to be quite a lot going on down south

https://twitter.com/x/status/1564182803704586240

 

[iPlug]

Ukrainian troops took back 4 villages in the south from Russian occupation, military source tells CNN​

From CNN's Olga Konovalova and Bex Wright

Ukrainian troops have taken four villages back from Russian occupation in the south near the city of Kherson, a Ukrainian military source tells CNN. Their main “target” is Kherson, the source added.

“The operation began at night with massive shelling of Russian positions and the rear,” the source, who CNN is not naming for security reasons, said.

“The main direction of the attack was on Pravdyne. We hit their infantry from the DNR (Donetsk People's Republic) and LNR (Luhansk People's Republic), and they fled. The Russian landing force fled after them," the source told CNN.
“We have now liberated four villages. Their first line of defense has been broken through in three places,” the military source said.
The source said the village names are Nova Dmytrivka, Arkhanhel's'ke, Tomyna Balka and Pravdyne.
“Many of them were killed and captured, and a lot of [Russian] military vehicles [were destroyed].”
“We'll see how it goes from here. Our target is Kherson," according to the source.

Ukrainian troops took back 4 villages in the south from Russian occupation, military source tells CNN

 

[petit_bateau]

Seems a plausible sitrep

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@emilkastehelmi: Kherson counterattack - What's happening? Continuous updates with latest information 1/🧵 Hersonin vastahyökkäys - mitä tapahtuu? Päivittyvä ketju, normaalista poiketen englanniksi. 1/🧵 Background: O...…

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and

https://twitter.com/x/status/1564260164483547137

https://twitter.com/x/status/1564258204439175170

https://twitter.com/x/status/1564255392292651009

https://twitter.com/x/status/1564272154006413314

https://twitter.com/x/status/1564274795146932224

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1564280809196064768?

https://twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/1564294689494372355?

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1564340663872782337?

 

[bobby g]

And who are you to determine what is "realistic" or not? Again: Prepare for the worst but WORK towards the best possible outcome!!!



This is merely your OPINION! If the 90s was a disaster – which it was – then how would you describe RuSSia under Putler with a Genocide on Georgians and Ukrainians as well as a large part of his own RuSSian army?... Democracy is STILL the best form of government available on Planet Earth! Right?...

What was the quote? Democracy is the worst form of government, except when compared to the others. Or words like that

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I like this guy in the red car. Rocket hits 2 inches from the bridge he's on.....continues driving.