Russia/Ukraine conflict

[nativewolf]

In addition to attacks in the north to free the subjugated people of bilhroad Russian bloggers are reporting attacks in the south, several settlements captured by Ukraine. The nature of this reminds me of Kherson. The talk for months, the deep strikes, etc etc. next, probing assaults and occupation of strategically useful settlements. The difference this time is storm shadow and glide launched bombs are the enabling factor.

I expect all the usual bloggers will be posting dozens of reports tomorrow on this.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Elon is a fantastic engineer and his issues give him tremendous target fixation which really helps engineers/engineering managers get things done. All that said, what kind of human is he? I'm really beginning to question this.

Looks like it was flagged "sensitive content" which, depending on how unrestful the retweeted civil unrest post was, i.e. if it had a video with some form of violence in it, then it looks like things are working as intended, from the screenshot he posted (it mentions violence as one of the possible reasons for the flag)? Being flagged sensitive isn't removing the content, just putting a warning on it and/or requiring someone to confirm they want to see it. Seems like a nothingburger.

 

[Ogre]

Elon is a fantastic engineer and his issues give him tremendous target fixation which really helps engineers/engineering managers get things done. All that said, what kind of human is he? I'm really beginning to question this.

Where were they sensored, what did the tweets contain?

Not enough information here to say what happened, let alone what kind of person Elon is.

Twitter complies with local laws. In Russia Twitter will comply with the governments requests where they have to in order to avoid getting shut down.

 

[madodel]

Belarus’ Lukashenko: ‘The only mistake we made’ was not finishing off Ukraine with Russia in 2014
Belarusian dictator completes transformation into Putin’s puppet.

 

[navguy12]

How limbs lost to the war effort are being replaced:

Toronto Star ePaper

Toronto Star ePaper

torontostarreplica.pressreader.com

 

[BitJam]

... another problem with an escalation ladder model, which is you may have an information asymmetry where two sides simply see the situation differently. You might think, for example, that you have more than enough military power to deter your opponent. But if the opposing leadership mistakenly believes that their dogs--t army is actually the best thing ever and hasn't had all its equipment worn down by corruption and its institutions rotten from the inside out then perhaps even though they should hypothetically be deterred by the risk of escalation, they may choose to escalate regardless. ​

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Where were they sensored, what did the tweets contain?

Not enough information here to say what happened, let alone what kind of person Elon is.

Twitter complies with local laws. In Russia Twitter will comply with the governments requests where they have to in order to avoid getting shut down.

Twitter has already been shut down in the Dictator's Russia.

"As of February 2022, the governments of China, Iran, Myanmar, North Korea, Russia, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have blocked access to Twitter."

Censorship of Twitter - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Maybe Twitter is worried about getting throttled in Russia or Hungary Or China

I guess I can't tell if you are joking or not, but Twitter has already been shut down in the Military Dictatorship that is China. See the post above.

 

[wdolson]

Mark Hertling has weighed in on the offensive
Thread by @MarkHertling on Thread Reader App

 

[heltok]

Regarding the blocked post. I have a feeling it's like FSD with some neural networks and some software 1.0. Here we had a video that was labelled sensitive and it got lots of bots[read users] flagging it. Maybe some heurisitic blocked it. In the future some neural network will just have a long list of post to block and not block and then do its best to classify if a new post should be blocked or not. Sometimes it will fail, sometimes not. Then they add these failures to the dataset and the neural network becomes better over time. People can argue about the dataset, but likely twitter will have pretty damned good reasons for why things in the dataset are labelled as they are, decided by experts not by amateurs like we are. But for now it's heuristic. Elon cannot make Twitter into Tesla in a few months, cut him some slack. It took karpathy 5 years at Tesla and they still have some legacy c++ code left that people whine about whenever the system does things it should not.

 

[heltok]

Russian army attacks Wagner. Wagner captures the Russian army forces:

 

[nativewolf]

So basically we have a free for all between Wagner and the Chechins who both want to get the heck away from the Ukrainians so they want to get inside the illegally occupied & suppressed Bilhorod republic? So they can claim to do something while avoiding fighting. Anyway...a civil war brewing. How interesting.

 

[Ogre]

I think at this point, Prigozhin just wants to get out of Russia and set up HQ in Sudan or CAR and wants to get as many of his experienced troops out of Russia before the storm comes. Seemed like he was going to get involved in the chaos earlier in the war, but at this point I think he just wants to punch out.

 

[heltok]

I have a feeling we will soon see lots of looting all around Russia. People have been suffering economically with both covid and now the war. Even before the war the country was far from moral, stable and trusting. Now with the army suffering people are gonna be sensing the weakness and knowing how soldiers plundered washing machines from Ukraine, how Putin and his oligarchs have plundered the country, it seems like the country is very vulnerable for mass plundering:

 

[Artful Dodger]

Russian losses seem awfully high for a force that is largely now in a defensive posture

How many of those were in railyards, or already loaded onto railcars? Russia is bleeding from its logistics arteries.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I think today(May 5th) is the day. Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!

 

[Dreadnought]

I think today(May 5th) is the day. Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!

I think you're right about that today's the day. Although the article says June 4th.

Russia claims to block Ukrainian offensive in south Donetsk direction

Russian Defense Ministry claimed to have thwarted a major Ukrainian offensive in the Donetsk region on the morning of June 4, according to a Telegram update cited by the BBC.

kyivindependent.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

04 Jun: Finally! Ukrainians TOOK BY STORM THE SOUTHERN FRONT | War in Ukraine Explained | Reporting From Ukraine (5 min ago)

 

[BitJam]

04 Jun: Finally! Ukrainians TOOK BY STORM THE SOUTHERN FRONT | War in Ukraine Explained | Reporting From Ukraine (5 min ago)

Excellent news! But this is not yet the counter-offensive. The attacks in the south were by unseasoned troops and without heavy Western weaponry. I expect more probing attacks and more feints ramping up in the coming days. IMO when "the" counter-offensive starts it will be unmistakable.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I think today(May 5th) is the day. Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!

Make that June 5th! Cinco de Juno