Russia/Ukraine conflict

[X Fan]

We often talk here about the battlefield and political details but let's not forget about the war crimes that Putin and his minions have impacted the Ukr people. This Telegraph article discusses kidnapped children: Ukraine stolen children: The ones who escaped Putin's grasp

 

[SmokyPeat]

That's probably the least likely type of weapon. The Russians took to scanning every vehicle entering the bridge after the first attack. Russian news said it was drone boats right after it happened, but some video that claims to be of the attack happening shows anti-aircraft trying to engage something that hit the bridge. It may have been a couple of Storm Shadows.

Yeah, I was just citing your Twitter source. Probably drone boats. I'd expect more/different damage from storm shadows.

 

[nativewolf]

Lots of storm shadow launches yesterday, the one in Luhansk but also 2 outside Mariupol and another on the coast. The Luhansk was likely ammo not command centers but it seems that 2 others were command centers.

 

[JRP3]

Russian news said it was drone boats right after it happened, but some video that claims to be of the attack happening shows anti-aircraft trying to engage something that hit the bridge. It may have been a couple of Storm Shadows.

I haven't seen anything that looks like damage from above, looks mostly like supports were taken out from below and the road surface just dropped.

 

[petit_bateau]

Transnistria ...... The Communist Party of the Russian Federation reported the murder of the leader of the Transnistrian Communist Party, Oleg Khorzhan, on July 17 in his home.

Russian Communist Party claims Transnistrian Communist Party leader has been murdered

The press service of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation has reported that Oleg Khorzhan, the leader of the Transnistrian Communist Party, has been murdered. Source: RIA Novosti, a Kremlin-aligned Russian news outlet; Communist Party of the Russian Federation on Telegram Quote from the...

news.yahoo.com

or

Killing of opposition leader in Moldova's breakaway Transnistria region is under investigation

Moldova’s national police force has opened a homicide investigation after an opposition leader in the Russia-backed breakaway region of Transnistria was found fatally shot at his home.

apnews.com

Grain deal .......

Zelenskyi responded to the onesided termination of the grain agreement by Russia.

"There were two agreements: Ukraine-Türkiye-UN and Russia-Türkiye-UN.”

“Therefore, when Russia says that it is stopping, it breaks its agreements with UN Secretary General Guterres and with President Erdogan.”

“Not with us. We did not have any agreements with them," he said.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680932696086794240

 

[bo3bdar]

Best image I've seen of damage to the Kerch bridge:

Side view:

 

[petit_bateau]

Best image I've seen of damage to the Kerch bridge:

View attachment 957120


Side view:

View attachment 957121

Earlier reports were they hit it in two places separated a fair ways apart. The other hit took out the other lane apparently. But I've not been able to find photos that I can be sure are of a second location so this is not confirmed. (Personally I don't know)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680993220623233029

Traffic jams are going viral

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681005115044696064

Grain deal not looking good

Russia says decision not to extend Black Sea grain deal is final

No more talks planned, says official, despite Turkish leader expressing hope of progress at UN meeting

www.theguardian.com

 

[melvladimir]

It may have been a couple of Storm Shadows

Most likely it was a water drone, possibly several ones. I remember several months ago there was a "crowdfunding campaign" for such things, the total budget was around 10 mln$. I guess soon we'll see the official statements.

How about something like this instead, driven in reverse

There are several concepts in the field testing stage. Mostly they use disks or a roller with spikes and by making enough pressure these tools trigger mines to explode. But in any case, engineers (sappers) have to check fields after that manually and thoroughly.
I guess later we'll see a lot of concepts and solutions under real testing in Ukraine fields. Unfortunately, there is plenty of room for that.

 

[wdolson]

I haven't seen anything that looks like damage from above, looks mostly like supports were taken out from below and the road surface just dropped.

The best covered section of damage on the westbound lanes looks like a section was lifted up from below and shoved outward. One thing I noted is that there is very little signs of scorching to any of the structure that I can see. I think the explosion happened well underwater with the intent to damage the support and the damage to the roadway was just secondary from the water thrown up during the blast.

If the Ukrainians compromised the integrity of the support under water, then the Russians will have to replace it. That will take time.

Transnistria ...... The Communist Party of the Russian Federation reported the murder of the leader of the Transnistrian Communist Party, Oleg Khorzhan, on July 17 in his home.

Russian Communist Party claims Transnistrian Communist Party leader has been murdered

The press service of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation has reported that Oleg Khorzhan, the leader of the Transnistrian Communist Party, has been murdered. Source: RIA Novosti, a Kremlin-aligned Russian news outlet; Communist Party of the Russian Federation on Telegram Quote from the...

news.yahoo.com

or

Killing of opposition leader in Moldova's breakaway Transnistria region is under investigation

Moldova’s national police force has opened a homicide investigation after an opposition leader in the Russia-backed breakaway region of Transnistria was found fatally shot at his home.

apnews.com

This is very interesting. The Russian presence in Transnistria is probably difficult for them to maintain as it is.

Grain deal .......

Zelenskyi responded to the onesided termination of the grain agreement by Russia.

"There were two agreements: Ukraine-Türkiye-UN and Russia-Türkiye-UN.”

“Therefore, when Russia says that it is stopping, it breaks its agreements with UN Secretary General Guterres and with President Erdogan.”

“Not with us. We did not have any agreements with them," he said.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680932696086794240

I read something a few weeks ago that if the Russians didn't renew the grain deal Turkey was going to escort Ukrainian grain ships in the black Sea. If Russia wanted to attack them, they would have to run the risk of hitting a Turkish ship and triggering article 5. Erdogan appears to be trying to make nice with the west again. I think he sees that Putin's regime has an expiration date.

Earlier reports were they hit it in two places separated a fair ways apart. The other hit took out the other lane apparently. But I've not been able to find photos that I can be sure are of a second location so this is not confirmed. (Personally I don't know)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680993220623233029

Traffic jams are going viral

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681005115044696064

Grain deal not looking good

Russia says decision not to extend Black Sea grain deal is final

No more talks planned, says official, despite Turkish leader expressing hope of progress at UN meeting

www.theguardian.com

I have seen images and video that clearly looks like a different location than the one that is heavily covered. I don't know which side of the bridge was damaged from the pictures.

Damaging the rail bridge would have had more effect on the war effort. Ukraine may have had a boat targeting that, but it had a problem and failed?

 

[wdolson]

Most likely it was a water drone, possibly several ones. I remember several months ago there was a "crowdfunding campaign" for such things, the total budget was around 10 mln$. I guess soon we'll see the official statements.

There are several concepts in the field testing stage. Mostly they use disks or a roller with spikes and by making enough pressure these tools trigger mines to explode. But in any case, engineers (sappers) have to check fields after that manually and thoroughly.
I guess later we'll see a lot of concepts and solutions under real testing in Ukraine fields. Unfortunately, there is plenty of room for that.

Ukraine has proven to be very creative with solutions. There was a video a few months ago that one farmer had come up with a modified plow to dig up mines. I think he wanted to plant and was frustrated the army couldn't get to his fields to check for mines so he came up with something himself.

It will take a while to demine Ukraine, but I expect we'll see some innovative solutions and a lot of dedication.

My biggest concern is that once the war is over the world's capitals will quit funding Ukraine. That would be a massive mistake. If the world keeps supporting Ukraine through its recovery, Ukraine is going to become a very strong economic power as well as a permanent thorn in the side of Russia if it stays together.

 

[iPlug]

...I read something a few weeks ago that if the Russians didn't renew the grain deal Turkey was going to escort Ukrainian grain ships in the black Sea. If Russia wanted to attack them, they would have to run the risk of hitting a Turkish ship and triggering article 5. Erdogan appears to be trying to make nice with the west again...

I certainly hope this will happen too, but have serious doubts as Erdogan primarily appears to be driven in transactional mode and not by broader ideals. Would much like to be wrong on this one.

 

[Surfer of Life]

 

[JRP3]

I have seen images and video that clearly looks like a different location than the one that is heavily covered. I don't know which side of the bridge was damaged from the pictures.

Damaging the rail bridge would have had more effect on the war effort. Ukraine may have had a boat targeting that, but it had a problem and failed?

Latest video from Denys shows a satellite image of 4 drone boats in the water, at the 4:40 mark

 

[SmokyPeat]

I have seen images and video that clearly looks like a different location than the one that is heavily covered. I don't know which side of the bridge was damaged from the pictures.

Damaging the rail bridge would have had more effect on the war effort. Ukraine may have had a boat targeting that, but it had a problem and failed?

I'm sure they'll get around to the rail bridge in due course. The piers for the rail bridge are probably substantially more robust. It's deck is also much higher above the water surface. I don't think it likely that the explosives detonated at any substantial depth underwater.

 

[RobStark]

My biggest concern is that once the war is over the world's capitals will quit funding Ukraine.

Breaking stuff and killing troops is in Washington DC's wheelhouse.

Putting stuff back together again is a job best led by Brussels.

The Marshall Plan was soooo loooong ago.

 

[EVCollies]

Pictures of the Crimean bridge in daylight are coming out

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680807335273582592

Some video of the damage. Looks like two different videos of the the two different parts damaged
https://twitter.com/search?q="Crimean Bridge"&src=trend_click&f=live&vertical=trends

Not that I agree with everything he says, Peter Zeihan claims the bridge had very limited rail capacity before this strike. I'm unable to find any verification.

 

[MC3OZ]

When they need to probe for mines manually, men are given wooden sticks and they crawl along the ground probe with the sticks.

Some sort of bot / drone is surely better than using men for this particular job.

In the middle of the war, with limited resources, that is hard to organise, so it is a topic relating to future clean up after the war.

I see the bots as costing perhaps $20,000-$30,000 each, expensive enough that you want to make losses the exception not the rule, but still way better than losing a human life, or having a human sustain major injures.

 

[wdolson]

I'm sure they'll get around to the rail bridge in due course. The piers for the rail bridge are probably substantially more robust. It's deck is also much higher above the water surface. I don't think it likely that the explosives detonated at any substantial depth underwater.

Where this attack happened the rail deck was about the same height as the road deck. That's why that video shot from the rail line is about the same height as the road.

Breaking stuff and killing troops is in Washington DC's wheelhouse.

Putting stuff back together again is a job best led by Brussels.

The Marshall Plan was soooo loooong ago.

Unfortunately. The Marshall Plan was one of the biggest wins for US foreign policy in its history.

Hmmm, I just thought the last name was missing a "c", and mispelled...

Not that I agree with everything he says, Peter Zeihan claims the bridge had very limited rail capacity before this strike. I'm unable to find any verification.

The rail line was limited for a time, but the Russians tore out the damaged section and replaced it over the winter. I think it was back to full capacity. Zeihan has some interesting information, but I have to check what he says. I've found him talking out of his hat at times. Other times he is onto something.

Some sort of bot / drone is surely better than using men for this particular job.

In the middle of the war, with limited resources, that is hard to organise, so it is a topic relating to future clean up after the war.

I see the bots as costing perhaps $20,000-$30,000 each, expensive enough that you want to make losses the exception not the rule, but still way better than losing a human life, or having a human sustain major injures.

I could see these replacing humans as bomb disposal officers in police departments. Western Europe still has a lot of bombs left over from WW II. Quite a few are found every year.

Ukraine is going to need methods to dispose of unexploded ordinance in bulk. They don't need many humanoid robots, they need large machines that can plow up fields and dispose of many explosives at once. They might be able to use a few in places where there is a booby trap or something that's a single, but tricky explosive.

 

[AudubonB]

Has anyone come across…or taken a stab at…how, assuming a clear, capital V Victory by Ukraine, the issue of reparations can be or has been intelligently and effectively addressed?
The poster child for egregious, vindictive, and ultimately world-shakingly catastrophic reparations is, as all surely know well, the 1919 Treaty of Versailles and its spawn: Locarno…Dawes…Young…Lausanne…but the gist of it is that much of WWII was foretold by the Treaty’s crippling of Germany.
I have no words of wisdom, but gladly would listen to some.

 

[wdolson]

Has anyone come across…or taken a stab at…how, assuming a clear, capital V Victory by Ukraine, the issue of reparations can be or has been intelligently and effectively addressed?
The poster child for egregious, vindictive, and ultimately world-shakingly catastrophic reparations is, as all surely know well, the 1919 Treaty of Versailles and its spawn: Locarno…Dawes…Young…Lausanne…but the gist of it is that much of WWII was foretold by the crippling of Germany.
I have no words of wisdom, but gladly would listen to some.

Ideally I would think it would be right for Russia to pay reparations to Ukraine, but realistically I don't think it's going to happen. The three big demands by Ukraine are:

1) Get their territory back
2) Get their kidnapped people back
3) Russia pays Ukraine for the damage they did

I think #1 is fairly likely, #2 may happen in part in a scenario where Russia balkanizes and some of the new countries want to curry favor with Ukraine and the rest of the world by returning kidnapped Ukrainians on their territory. Unfortunately I think that #3 is going to be getting blood out of a turnip. Russia has been able to stay in the fight without collapsing the economy through a lot of economic tricks, but countries that play those sorts of games eventually have to pay the piper.

Also the sanctions are unlikely to fully go away overnight. The west may start to ease sanctions here and there as a reward for Russia doing something after the war. It might be as a reward for returning kidnapped Ukrainians too. But easing sanctions for paying reparations is probably a bit unlikely. If Russia had enough resources to pay sanctions after the war they probably wouldn't be doing so to get sanctions relieved.

Wars just set a lot of cash on fire and unfortunately there is little chance to get it back again.

Realistically the rest of the world is going to have to do something to bring Russia back into the world community if they make an effort to move away from the murderous regime they have now after the war. It won't be a healthy liberal democracy, the best we can hope for is something better than Putin's Russia.

In other news big artillery losses for Ukraine today
https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2023...s-of-the-enemy-from-24-02-2022-to-18-07-2023/

The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 18.07.23 were approximately:
personnel ‒ about 239010 (+710) persons were liquidated,
tanks ‒ 4119 (+4),
APV ‒ 8051 (+17),
artillery systems – 4542 (+38),
MLRS – 689 (+4),
Anti-aircraft warfare systems ‒ 428 (+0),
aircraft – 315 (+0,
helicopters – 310 (+0),
UAV operational-tactical level – 3839 (+11),
cruise missiles ‒ 1273 (+0),
warships / boats ‒ 18 (+0),
vehicles and fuel tanks – 7086 (+27),
special equipment ‒ 677 (+0).