Russia/Ukraine conflict

[SwedishAdvocate]

Various channels are sharing the picture of the badly damaged tail section of a plane which could be Il-22M at the airfield of Anapa, Russia. I believe this to be genuine, including the potential geolocation the buildings in the background, [...] but treat this is unconfirmed, yet.

45° 0'21.71"N, 37°20'54.45"E

twitter.com/Tendar/status/1746875653968863696

https://twitter.com/x/status/1746875653968863696

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

According to some Swedish dude who allegedly knows about this stuff, that much shrapnel damage in the vertical stabilizer is too much to be coming from an AAM (air-to-air missile). So he says that it's some kind of SAM.

Sources in Swedish:

twitter.com/dejjvid/status/1746875554391797764?s=20

"Splash one Mainstay"

Uppgifter sprids om att ett ryskt A-50 Mainstay flygande radarplan skjutits ner över Azovsjön och att ett IL-22M flygande stridsledningscentral skadats och tvingats nödlanda med skadade ombord. Uppgifterna styrks delvis av radiotrafik och delvis av satellitbilder på kondensstrimmor, men är förstås i

cornucopia.se

 

[SmokyPeat]

That doesn't look like an IL-22M tail section to me.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

That doesn't look like an IL-22M tail section to me.

There are a few variants but from what I've seen it is a IL-22

 

[SmokyPeat]

There are a few variants but from what I've seen it is a IL-22

Looks more like an IL-20M to me.

 

[wdolson]

All the prior one-off, partially effective airstrip bombings of one or two planes have had me chafing at the bit wondering when Ukraine was going to end these measly half-way strikes and replace them with the necessary total obliteration of Russian airfields and seaports that leaves absolute nothing of value and no one remaining, like Russia has done to Ukraine's cities and towns.

In fact, THAT is how this war must end: with Ukraine obliterating all Rusian institutions, people, and production of war materials, and taking any that remain back to Ukraine forf it's own security.

Ukraine hasn't had the means to hit many of these targets until fairly recently. Even then they have had very limited launch platforms and limited number of missiles. If the US loaned Ukraine the use of a couple of air wings with full use of the US missile inventory, then they might be able to do much of what you are advocating, but that would make the US a direct participant in the war and that's not going to happen.

Ukraine is getting F-16s, but only a relative handful initially because they are pilot limited. More pilots are in training, but even under wartime training regimes those pilots are not going to be ready for another year or two.

Even with unlimited arms Ukraine is not going to be able to reach a lot of Russia's production. In 1941 the USSR moved a large chunk of their production much further east. They built brand new factories in record time in what had been the hinterland. Much of their military production is still there today.

That's out of range of pretty much anything that Ukraine has or could have. It's the nature of a large power attacking a smaller one. All of Ukraine is within the range of Russian weapons, but the opposite is not true.

According to some Swedish dude who allegedly knows about this stuff, that much shrapnel damage in the vertical stabilizer is too much to be coming from an AAM (air-to-air missile). So he says that it's some kind of SAM.

Sources in Swedish:

twitter.com/dejjvid/status/1746875554391797764?s=20

"Splash one Mainstay"

Uppgifter sprids om att ett ryskt A-50 Mainstay flygande radarplan skjutits ner över Azovsjön och att ett IL-22M flygande stridsledningscentral skadats och tvingats nödlanda med skadade ombord. Uppgifterna styrks delvis av radiotrafik och delvis av satellitbilder på kondensstrimmor, men är förstås i

cornucopia.se

I was thinking the plane was damaged on the ground. Pravda Ukraine has that picture and is linking it to the damaged Il-22M reported the other day, though it could be another aircraft.
Ukraine’s Air Force spokesman shows damaged Russian Il-22: It cannot be restored – photo

Looks more like an IL-20M to me.

It could be the lighting, but it does look like the vertical stabilizer is missing the bulbous housing at the top that the IL-22M has, so that does hint at it being something else, but the part of the tail just under the rudder doesn't look like an IL-20M
Ilyushin IL-20M

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Looks more like an IL-20M to me.

How?

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Tail no. Is shown in some photos and checks out as a IL-22M11. You can Google it - RF-95678

 

[glhs272]

Various channels are sharing the picture of the badly damaged tail section of a plane which could be Il-22M at the airfield of Anapa, Russia. I believe this to be genuine, including the potential geolocation the buildings in the background, [...] but treat this is unconfirmed, yet.

45° 0'21.71"N, 37°20'54.45"E

twitter.com/Tendar/status/1746875653968863696

https://twitter.com/x/status/1746875653968863696

To me, this looks like a Patriot PAC-2 missile, as the PAC-3 are direct kill (no explosives). It appears this shoot down was farther out than the publically advertised range of the patriot. But the actual effective range of the Patriot appears to be far longer than what the US military publicly discloses...

But the most significant development is that it appears that the Ukrainians are getting very good at "Sniper Mode" for patriots. First, the shootdowns of those helicopters in Russia back in May. Then, those 3 SU-34s in December. Now, AWACS and Signals Intelligence planes. This will put the fear into the VKS like nothing else. Even though Ukraine cannot cover the entirety of Ukraine with Patriots, it can still be as effective as if it were. By keeping a patriot missile battery mobile and "off" in stealth mode, the Russians have no idea where it is. They keep the radars off, and by using other non-patriot radars, they can notify patriot battery when there is a target in range. They turn on the radar, launch a few missiles, then relocate (shoot-&-scoot). This technique appears to be pioneered by the Ukrainians. It makes the patriot an even more effective system than how the US uses it (static defense only).

 

[SmokyPeat]

How?

All of the IL-22M11 photos I've seen have a pod on top of the tail fin. It probably got blown off by the missile. The other photos show that it is indeed an IL-22M11(according to people who say they are familiar with the identification numbers).

 

[wdolson]

All of the IL-22M11 photos I've seen have a pod on top of the tail fin. It probably got blown off by the missile. The other photos show that it is indeed an IL-22M11.

The picture is not taken in good lighting. It's possible the pod is there and just didn't show up in the picture.

 

[SmokyPeat]

The picture is not taken in good lighting. It's possible the pod is there and just didn't show up in the picture.

I've seen photos from multiple angles now. The pod is definitely missing.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Before and after KABOOM!

Original brightened up to show extensive mangling:

Some Russian 'experts' are claiming friendly fire was responsible for both hits. They just can't admit to themselves that Ukraine has the capability, so that explanation is easier to swallow. That's telling in itself.

 

[AudubonB]

Before and after KABOOM!

View attachment 1009349

Original brightened up to show extensive mangling:

View attachment 1009350

Some Russian 'experts' are claiming friendly fire was responsible for both hits. They just can't admit to themselves that Ukraine has the capability, so that explanation is easier to swallow. That's telling in itself.

That is taking “shooting oneself in the foot” to be as close to its literal meaning as to make no difference; I don’t think even old King Pyrrhus would have been able to come up with a more apposite term for it!

 

[navguy12]

And a self-professed ultra-conservative, so his opinions in this piece are no surprise. Check out what he has said about COVID for more details.

You know, I’m on a small road trip and have been off line for the past day.

Last night, I had dinner with some old friends and acquaintances.

It is a very conservative, rural setting and the guests at the dinner table all lean on the right side of the political spectrum.

As the conversation waxed and waned, it became evident that the social media ecosystem that all the guests adhere to have convinced all of them that Russia is in the right, the leadership in Ukraine is corrupt and that Ukraine had it coming because NATO started this whole thing.

The COVID discussion was as I imagine the “self-professed ultra-conservative” chap has had about COVID.

Even the Israel/Hamas situation conversation was painting much blame on Israel.

It really feels like 1930s Germany…

 

[madodel]

You know, I’m on a small road trip and have been off line for the past day.

Last night, I had dinner with some old friends and acquaintances.

It is a very conservative, rural setting and the guests at the dinner table all lean on the right side of the political spectrum.

As the conversation waxed and waned, it became evident that the social media ecosystem that all the guests adhere to have convinced all of them that Russia is in the right, the leadership in Ukraine is corrupt and that Ukraine had it coming because NATO started this whole thing.

The COVID discussion was as I imagine the “self-professed ultra-conservative” chap has had about COVID.

Even the Israel/Hamas situation conversation was painting much blame on Israel.

It really feels like 1930s Germany…

Yep. This isn't really directly political anymore because the extreme left is pretty much in agreement with the ultra right on those very same issues. It's all about the manipulation. Putin may suck royally at military tactics and strategy but his KGB training has made him really appreciate promoting lies everywhere. No matter how stupid the lies there are a lot of people who will believe anything.

 

[madodel]

Not sure if this violates the Geneva Convention. Anyone familiar with putting POWs on trial?
Russia Says Sentenced Over 200 Ukrainian POWs

 

[lolachampcar]

Judo
Use your opponent's momentum against them (in our/US' case, stupidity).

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

French President Emmanuel Macron announced in a press conference that France will send another 40 SCALP-EG cruise missiles to Ukraine. Additionally, “hundreds of bombs” of an undisclosed type will be added as well.

twitter.com/Tendar/status/1747387573977088102

https://twitter.com/x/status/1747387573977088102

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

This was retweeted by Ben Hodges. Would be really nice if it could gain traction.

Bashkortostan right now. One of the poor provinces of Russia. Of course, its governor is fully supportive of war & hateful of the "decadent" West. And of course, his daughter lives in Austria.

twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1747556600775090443

https://twitter.com/x/status/1747556600775090443