In other news, Ukraine continues to expand Russia’s submarine fleet:
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I figure GDP is misleading in the context of a war economy, just as it is misleading in the context of a natural disaster and that recovery from the disaster.
Yes there is a fantastic level of economic activity associated with both situations. However the proportion of that economic activity that yields improved / maintained infrastructure - the ongoing expansion of the economy's ability to generate further wealth is destroyed.
In the case of a war economy, the fruit of all that economic activity gets shipped off and destroyed on a battle field. There is no enduring economic capacity or benefit.
In the case of natural disaster that infrastructure / capacity for further economic activity starts by being destroyed. That recovery effort is exactly that - a whole bunch of economic activity that produces nothing except restoration of the state of affairs prior to the natural disaster.
Do you not think that Russia could duplicate the economic boom that propelled the US economy after WWII ?
France is donating Mirage 2000 jets. Interesting.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Do you remember their little adventure in Afghanistan? How did their economy do after that? This is worse.
Russia will be lucky to become a vassal state of China instead of a vassal state of N Korea.
Some important differences there. One that comes to mind is that America wasn't bombed into the stone age during ww2.
DanCar
Active Member
Much of the rest of the industrialized world was bombed, except for the U.S. Will be interesting if Russia bombs China.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Former Supreme Allied Commander Europe (NATO) – Gen. Philip Breedlove interviewed on Times Radio.
One point from 35:09 into the video:
The Democratic West is willing to sacrifice Ukrainian Soldiers, Ukrainian Civilians and Ukrainian land to keep this bottle up:ed [inside of the 1991 borders of Ukraine].
One point from 35:09 into the video:
The Democratic West is willing to sacrifice Ukrainian Soldiers, Ukrainian Civilians and Ukrainian land to keep this bottle up:ed [inside of the 1991 borders of Ukraine].
DanCar
Active Member
That is why if Russia escalates, outside of Ukraine, it would be good for Ukraine.
Wrong thread, but hire the arsonists to rebuild, brilliant!They should be put in charge of Gaza reconstruction when Israel finally agrees to a permanent ceasefire deal.
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navguy12
Active Member
adiggs
Well-Known Member
The way I see it that's a different thing. New infrastructure / economic capability was being built in that economic boom AFTER the war. But I stand by the idea for the war economy, whether US or Germany or whoever else. The airplanes, ships, guns, bullets, and on and on that were consumed by the war - those look great in GDP numbers and represent 100% waste (economically).
I do think that Russia could duplicate the economic boom AFTER the war, after the war economy is done. When the economy gets back to building and maintaining facilities that themselves produce economic results, rather than building war material that is 100% waste (economically speaking). At least in theory - whether they actually will is a different conversation.
The US boom after WW II was caused by the rest of the world economy. The US had 50% of the world's manufacturing capacity in 1940 and it was close to 90% by 1945. The US was the only major participant in WW II which had no damage to its industry. The world was trying to rebuild in 1946 and there was only one supplier for what those countries needed: the US.
The US maintained that dominance in manufacturing (those the percentage of world capacity did decline) until the early 1970s.
The US also was very lavish in benefits to the veterans of the war. A huge number of veterans went to college on the GI Bill and VA home loans fueled a housing boom that is unparalleled in world history. Because the US had so many college graduates, it was able to become a world leader in many technologies in the 1950s and 60s. As the manufacturing declined, the US continued to dominate in intellectual industries. The US is losing that edge today because universities are not producing enough STEM graduates to fill all the needs. But the US is still dominant in many fields.
Russia has none of those advantages. They are feeding the war economy on a sugar high. The veterans of this war will be thrown on the trash heap of history just as the Soviet vets of WW II were. I have read that well into the 70s badly maimed WW II vets were begging on the streets of Soviet cities because the government gave them very little. In war the Russians don't care about their people and they don't care in peace either.
Russia has curbed the corruption a bit due to the war and its necessities, but once the war is over the black market freebooters will be back at work skimming whatever they can for their own pockets. Any attempts to turn swords into plowshares will be consumed by the grifters.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
No; Russia's economy was/is a resource extraction economy rather than a versatile industrial economy like the US.
Dreadnought
Member
And this is the foundation for the kleptocracy that Kasparov alluded to in the previous post. In a diversified economy, creation of wealth is distributed over many businesses, owned by an even higher number of individuals. In Russia, the majority of wealth is created from oil and gas extraction, which enables the government / Mafia bosses to divert large portions into their own pockets. (Yes, there is also uranium, gold and other resources but these are not the decisive factors.)
Everybody is talking about how oil funds the Russian war machine - which is true - but in war or peace, it's also the foundation for their mafia-like government. Obviously, autocratic regimes do not only exist in countries where the economy depends on resource extraction and there are examples of resource rich democracies but there is a clear correlation. Russia has a better chance to become a democratic country if nobody buys their oil. The way things are going, Putin's successor is likely to become the next Godfather.
This is Russia's economy pre-war.
RUSSIA Trade Summary 2021 | WITS | Text
Fuels is the largest chunk, but there are a lot of other commodities too. Agricultural products and other mined mineral predominate, but they also had a relatively strong military export business that might be in the "Miscellaneous" category. They have been in the top 10 military exporters for years.
Arms industry - Wikipedia
The poor performance of their weapons in Ukraine has dried up interest in their military exports. Perun covered this about a year ago.
This will have knock on effects on their military. Russia's own military has gotten new equipment only when their arms industry has secured enough export orders to pay off the development costs. If they can't secure export orders, the weapon never goes into production. That's the primary problem with the T-14. Countries bought upgraded T-90s instead, so that remained in production.
After this war is over, if no country buys Russian weapons, their defense industry will likely curl up and die. Otherwise they will have to keep spending most of their budget rebuilding weapons to replace those lost in the war. Maintaining a war economy when there is no war won't be popular.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
A 'rather large' part of why "Russians don't care" is that the Military Dictator and his minions are preventing them from caring in any meaningful or impactful way. That is what a Military Dictatorships does...
The really sad part is that Russians as an entity didn't care enough way back when they still were able(?) to prevent Russia from once again becoming the Military Dictatorship it currently is.
As has been written about before in this thread – it turned out that deploying a Neo-liberal Economic Shock Doctrine on a previously Socialist/Communist country probably isn't free from considerable risks to the Civil Liberties/Democracy(?) in said country...
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