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Safety: how would the Model S handle this?

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The vehicle you were in wouldn't have made a bit of difference.. The 200 pound chunk of steel went through the windshield. Such a freak accident. Condolences to the woman's family, friends, and students.

The only chance of surviving something like this would be if you were driving in a much taller vehicle (lifted pickup) where the manhole cover hits the front grill instead of windshield.
 
No car on the road today or in the next few years would save you from that.

Maybe 20-50 years from now AI and imaging systems could improve enough to trigger the brakes and airbag(s) simultaneously reducing the closing speed and giving a collapsing bag the opportunity to absorb some of the momentum of the cover or better deflecting it and she ends up with crushed legs or an arm and a leg instead of dying?

Even then it might not be enough to guarantee that it doesn't just punch through the bag.
 
The shallower windshield angle means a little more tendency to deflect it over, and the shorter car might move the impact up closer to the top of the windshield if the S was in the exact same spot (where the hardened roof structure is much sturdier than the glass) - but when it comes to a 200 pound chunk of iron at ~100 ft per second (freeway speeds) hitting the windshield, there's not much any car can do.

That cover is large enough that it'd make a solid radar target, though - which means that TACC/AEB might be able to slow the impact if the programming is quick enough off the mark when the cover comes flying up.

Strangest accident I've read about in years.