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Safety Score
- Thread starter ScottNY
- Start date
Thank God I have my ICE Blazer and my wife's 3--with a measly 97 SS--to drive while my MYP 100 sits safe and sound in the garage. You can tell she's all excited for her upgrade tonight.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
To be fair, it could be the end result, at least for a very long time. But we all hope it is not. Hopefully everyone will be extremely careful.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
There is near zero chance this is the end result for a long time.
I've posted this question before but why did Elon write 100/100? Did he mean every drive had to be a 100 or just the total safety score had to be 100?
I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out the smaller then expected number (1k-1.2K) estimated to be added after midnight tonight is because Tesla only selected safety scores with every drive a 100. We shall see.
My score is 100 but I had two drives below 100 (98 & 99) so I'm managing my expectations assuming I won't be added overnight.
I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out the smaller then expected number (1k-1.2K) estimated to be added after midnight tonight is because Tesla only selected safety scores with every drive a 100. We shall see.
My score is 100 but I had two drives below 100 (98 & 99) so I'm managing my expectations assuming I won't be added overnight.
HighZ
Member
I truly believe this is not the case. Tesla would have used a safety score in the app with one decimal place otherwise if they were going to get that granular, and he expected a lot of new 100 drivers between yesterday and tonight.
My concern is that Tesla will find perhaps 1500 or more drivers managed to get their scores up to a perfect 100, and whether they will still upgrade ‘all perfect scores’.
powertoold
Active Member
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Don't overthink this. This would be an extremely small number of people, completely inconsistent with the 1000 people mentioned.
This is definitive enough at this point that the only thing I think we're likely to see is a short delay on the release (for example, it might get delayed a day or two or even few more if the software isn't ready - but I think even this isn't that likely at this point)
I guess I should define "long time." I think there's a decent chance that this could be it for over a year, but I think it would take a catastrophic event for that to occur, and for there to not be further expansion of the beta. Do I think it's likely that this is the last expansion? No. But I don't think it is "near zero chance." Again, I hope people are extremely careful. It's very difficult to predict what might happen. There will be accidents when FSD is in use, eventually. The question will be the severity and whether FSD played any significant role (since the driver of course will still be driving, it could be driver error).
HighZ
Member
I sure hope not. I would be 18 miles short of a 100 and I really don’t feel like getting in my car to play safety score roulette at night.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I think @powertoold was just suggesting that you might need 7 days minimum with a score. Not that just the first seven days or the most recent seven days would be counted.
jebinc
Well-Known Member
^^^^ THIS ^^^^
I'm expecting the game's rules to change before release, whenever that may come.
If too many people score 100, the only fair and sensible way to choose would be to start with those who pushed the button first. You know, me!
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I expect the rollout to continue or fsd beta testing stopped (i.e. revoked / withdrawn) in case of a catastrophic event. So, I consider rollout to 1k people continuing for a year extremely unlikely - even in the case of catastrophic event.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I don't think there is a big difference between 1,200 and 1,500 for this purpose. They will roll with it. He not only tweeted it - but talked about it in the company meeting.
BTW, I don't think its easy for people to improve and get to 100 - because of the miles needing to be driven today to correct 13 days of driving.
jeffdom1978
Member
I'm pretty sure the code has been written already to send to all cars who have a 100 score. Would be a lot more work for them to segment that up.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I mean I agree that it's possible that FSD Beta testing could be revoked, but that qualifies to me as this particular expansion being the "end result" for the purpose of the conversation we were having (I've always been saying it could easily be the high water mark!). The "near zero chance" I was taking issue with was the idea that there's "near zero chance" that they won't further expand the beta and eventually (but quite soon, within a year) go to wide release.
Apparently you were saying that this isn't the end result because they might withdraw the beta? I don't see how that assuages @Ramphex 's concern!!!
There's also a chance they could have a week or two of good safety data and expand the testers to include people with 99, and then this would be the new "end result" (though I think we can agree that wouldn't be much different).
More generally, I mean it seems entirely possible that a very limited beta tester expansion to include people with only above a certain, quite high Safety Score is the "end result" for another year - meaning no wide release of FSD for a year or more. The risk of this being the end state (or high water mark!) goes up the broader the tester expansion becomes.
I have no idea how to assign likelihood, and I really don't know, but I can say to me it doesn't seem like "near zero chance."
powertoold
Active Member
This is around the time Elon tweets to say sorry folks, two more weeks! No tweet so far. Can't wait to get onboard the beta rollercoaster. In the past, I didn't want it, but I guess 10.2 will have to do.
MarkS22
Member
I agree. If someone was able to get to 100 today, it means they were close to 99.51 already. If someone drove a perfect 100+ miles to hit 100, they still deserve it. Fixing a very low score would be impossible in the time given and a "bad" driver wouldn't be able to do a perfect 100-mile trip.
By way of example, if you had a 98.25 (a reasonable score) with 250 miles (a moderate mileage), you would need 700 perfect miles in one day. A 98.75 (which would display as a 99 Safety Score) would need 400 perfect miles.
If we're talking about excluding ~300 people, the negative press and social media would be far worse. I believe he was helping all the people who were very close get over the finish line.
jebinc
Well-Known Member
Guess we may begin to see what methodology was used, beginning in four hours....
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