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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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I really don't know where the SP is going. On the one hand, TSLA is so undervalued it is ridiculous. On the other hand, I don't like how much the market in general has rallied going into FED hikes next week. So I re-entered the 1X 206CC for Jan 2024 to fund 2x Jan 2024 200 strike Puts for protection. If the SP rises I will lose some money on the trade buying back the CC and selling the Puts, but some money lost on a climb is better than a Margin call and liquidation next week on a drop.
 
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I really don't know where the SP is going. On the one hand, TSLA is so undervalued it is ridiculous. On the other hand, I don't like how much the market in general has rallied going into FED hikes next week. So I re-entered the 1X CC for Jan 2024 @ 206 to fund 2x Jan 2024 200 strike Puts for protection. If the SP rises I will lose some money on the trade buying back the CC and selling the Puts, but some money lost on a climb is better than a Margin call and liquidation next week on a drop.
True dat! I think this is a great move in your situation. I’ve given up on understanding the SP moves. AAPL is killing it today after dumping AH, on a modest beat. TESLA dumps after massive growth and guidance.🤷‍♂️ I’m selling straddles exclusively now so that at least I can profit from theta decay, which is the only certainty here. My 11/18 -c/-p 230s are doing awesome. Printed 2 week’s expenses in the past two days. I’ll just roll up/down and out as needed.
 
Calls paying so little for my liking, given how bullish I am on TSLA so I'm sticking to naked short puts for now. 210P until things become clearer. We can clearly see TSLA hit its local top as the stock was not participating in today's rally to an appropriate degree. A quick dump at the open to finish out a small bear flag hit the trendline @ 217 before recovering. Next time we visit this trendline I don't expect it to hold and 207 will be in play then.
1666987529505.png

I don't want to be a permabear but SPX is looking like a giant bull trap right now. That's probably why TSLA is not allowed to break out. More consolidation / downside ahead I reckon. Note the extreme similarities to the early June rally. Double bearish diversion on a 2h timeframe at the top of a rising wedge.
1666987937057.png
 
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So what happens if the Fed raises rates by 0.75 and says they’re looking at 0.5 next time then 0.25 then wait and see? I think the market could go bananas if the end of rates hikes comes into view. Certainly not a given — some more bad earnings forecasts could stick us back in the dumpster — but the chance of bad news from the Fed seems to be if they stay extra hawkish and is that even possible with mortgage demand going off a cliff? It seems like we’re getting into real damage now (typical mortgages +$1000/mo) and there’s still at least 100 basis points to come…
 
Update, my sell of 10x 11/11 -c220's @$14.1 triggered - seemed overly optimistic when we were capped at $223, but eventually got there

So no 10x 11/4 -c220's and 10x 11/11 -c220's in play, bit probably depend on the FED decisions and Powell's speech. I'm OK for one set to exercise, but will continue to roll them out of I can get enough premium

I'm doing two sets of 10x on alternating weeks, for the moment hits my weekly target with fairly low risk. If the SP were to take off then $1 strikes would become attractive and I'll write those too, not quite there yet, IMO
 
So what happens if the Fed raises rates by 0.75 and says they’re looking at 0.5 next time then 0.25 then wait and see? I think the market could go bananas if the end of rates hikes comes into view. Certainly not a given — some more bad earnings forecasts could stick us back in the dumpster — but the chance of bad news from the Fed seems to be if they stay extra hawkish and is that even possible with mortgage demand going off a cliff? It seems like we’re getting into real damage now (typical mortgages +$1000/mo) and there’s still at least 100 basis points to come…
Memories are short. Even if the Fed intends such a glide path, I expect their speeches will continue down a drumbeat bear warpath until they see a CPI number they like or they get to their pause point at 4.5 to 5 percent early next year. Then they will rage with stop inflation fever orations until they see what they want to see.

They don’t care so much about mortgage demand. What they fear is widespread foreclosures. But this will not happen as the vast majority of current mortgagees are locked in at generationally low interest rates. We were there for a solid two years. They know this. Dropping real estate prices due to lack of demand and a collapsing mortgage origination market does not concern them at the moment.

They are talking the talk and walking the walk right now and I am certain that their plan is to let actions speak louder than words when they finally pivot, cause they are all about talking down the markets. I think they might believe less burden may fall on the little people if they talk down the markets enough to to avoid a hike or two at the end of this, and we all know they take themselves very seriously. They may be right. Regardless, until data slowdown is confirmed, be wary of any calls of a pivot. And be equally wary of their speeches which are about to begin again. I will believe tales of dovish Fed speak when I hear it with my own ears.

My prediction is interest rates stay high into late next year before any cuts are on the table.
 
Update, my sell of 10x 11/11 -c220's @$14.1 triggered - seemed overly optimistic when we were capped at $223, but eventually got there

So no 10x 11/4 -c220's and 10x 11/11 -c220's in play, bit probably depend on the FED decisions and Powell's speech. I'm OK for one set to exercise, but will continue to roll them out of I can get enough premium

I'm doing two sets of 10x on alternating weeks, for the moment hits my weekly target with fairly low risk. If the SP were to take off then $1 strikes would become attractive and I'll write those too, not quite there yet, IMO
Checking to see if I'm understanding how your'e doing things right now, at least on the call side.

Sell 10% of the possible cc's at an aggressive strike for ~2 weeks out. One week later, sell a new batch of about 10% of your possible cc's, again 2 weeks out.

Now you have 2 sets of 10% cc's expiring every other week. Manage them as typical for cc's, but being much more ready / eager to take assignment (and bring a 3rd batch of 10% of possible cc's in to replace the ones just assigned).

Simplistically the idea is that if 10% or 20% of your possible covering calls can generate all of your target income, then you've got most of your shares/leaps uncovered to take full advantage of the share price taking off. While continuing to fully generate target income from the minority subset that are covered.

Is that about right?


EDIT to add:
Similar idea could / would also work well on the put side.
 
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Seeking wisdom from the board. I had some some ITM LEAP cc's that I had to sell to cover a margin call last month. Now that the SP looks like it might have a chance to recover, hopefully slowly, I finally noticed that I had the following "straddle" position earlier this week:

jan '25 -240p/-200c

I was able to vertically roll them as pair into jan '25 -260p/-230c for a very slight debit (less than $1). Then as the SP continued to rise, I rolled them again into jan '25 -280p/-260c again for a very slight debit.

I tried doing the same thing with some Jun '23 -240p/-300c that I rolled into Jun '23 -250p/-310c, but this time for a decent credit of $4. It seems to me I could keep rolling this (for a credit) for a while as long as I keep the puts ITM and the calls OTM, as a methodical way to keep the covered call from going DITM. If the SP reverses, I can roll the pair down and out to bring the puts back inline to being only somewhat ITM. It seems too stable and "safe", so I know I'm missing something! What am I missing!?
 
Seeking wisdom from the board. I had some some ITM LEAP cc's that I had to sell to cover a margin call last month. Now that the SP looks like it might have a chance to recover, hopefully slowly, I finally noticed that I had the following "straddle" position earlier this week:

jan '25 -240p/-200c

I was able to vertically roll them as pair into jan '25 -260p/-230c for a very slight debit (less than $1). Then as the SP continued to rise, I rolled them again into jan '25 -280p/-260c again for a very slight debit.

I tried doing the same thing with some Jun '23 -240p/-300c that I rolled into Jun '23 -250p/-310c, but this time for a decent credit of $4. It seems to me I could keep rolling this (for a credit) for a while as long as I keep the puts ITM and the calls OTM, as a methodical way to keep the covered call from going DITM. If the SP reverses, I can roll the pair down and out to bring the puts back inline to being only somewhat ITM. It seems too stable and "safe", so I know I'm missing something! What am I missing!?
This is similar to what I’m doing, but only less than a month out, instead of your 6mo-2yr timeframe. Yes, as the SP rises just raise the strike on both sides, conversely when the SP drops. I think this works “better” for shorter durations vs LEAPS, but the daily volatility gets wild and really influences the shorter term options (especially the expiring week), plus it’s difficult to adjust for credit. When the SP runs away from the strike, I found it easy to roll forward a week, for a net credit (though paying a debit on the losing side). Once you get out too far into LEAP land, rolling a week doesn’t really increase premiums as much and it’s more difficult to get a credit. Remember, a tight short straddle/strangle is really just harvesting theta decay off of both and theta decay is lower the farther away you get from the expiration date. I’m just learning, but I think the sweet spot is somewhere around 20-30 DTE. To few days and it’s like riding a bucking bull, too long and the theta decay isn’t enough to harvest significant profit. I do think that you are right about it being stable and simple. The short put is betting that the SP goes up, and the short call is betting that the SP goes down. They balance each other. Just my 2 cents.
 
tsla MMD, is it for real? you betcha

backtesting 6/1 to 10/28 on 15-min time scale,
  • the probability of MMD or Low of Day happening on the 1st hour (930-1030am) is 66.7%
  • the probability of Low of Day happening on the first 15 mins (930-945am) is 32.4% (ie great for -p/+c)
  • the probability of High of Day happening on the first 15 mins (930-945am) is 36.2% (ie great for +p/-c)
  • the probability of Low of Day occurring earlier than High of Day is 47.6% (ie great for max range daytrading)
  • the probability of Low of Day happening on the last 30 mins (330-4pm) is 5.8% (ie end-of-day pushdown)
  • the probability of High of Day happening on the last 30 mins (330-4pm) is 11.5% (ie end-of-day surge)
1667089426431.png
 
tsla MMD, is it for real? you betcha

backtesting 6/1 to 10/28 on 15-min time scale,
  • the probability of MMD or Low of Day happening on the 1st hour (930-1030am) is 66.7%
  • the probability of Low of Day happening on the first 15 mins (930-945am) is 32.4% (ie great for -p/+c)
  • the probability of High of Day happening on the first 15 mins (930-945am) is 36.2% (ie great for +p/-c)
  • the probability of Low of Day occurring earlier than High of Day is 47.6% (ie great for max range daytrading)
  • the probability of Low of Day happening on the last 30 mins (330-4pm) is 5.8% (ie end-of-day pushdown)
  • the probability of High of Day happening on the last 30 mins (330-4pm) is 11.5% (ie end-of-day surge)
View attachment 868943
My goodness, this is an amazing analysis! Super kudos! I hope @Artful Dodger and @Papafox see this!
 
Checking to see if I'm understanding how your'e doing things right now, at least on the call side.

Sell 10% of the possible cc's at an aggressive strike for ~2 weeks out. One week later, sell a new batch of about 10% of your possible cc's, again 2 weeks out.

Now you have 2 sets of 10% cc's expiring every other week. Manage them as typical for cc's, but being much more ready / eager to take assignment (and bring a 3rd batch of 10% of possible cc's in to replace the ones just assigned).

Simplistically the idea is that if 10% or 20% of your possible covering calls can generate all of your target income, then you've got most of your shares/leaps uncovered to take full advantage of the share price taking off. While continuing to fully generate target income from the minority subset that are covered.

Is that about right?


EDIT to add:
Similar idea could / would also work well on the put side.
You got it!

If we were trading higher in the 200's, I'd write -c300, or higher, weeklies and take my chances, on the basis that my shares were mostly bought at $300

But I have 1000 $TSLA from -p240's, which are already profitable if I let them go at -c220 and 1500 I straight FOMO bought for pre-split 878, I've taken around $55 premium on these, so again wouldn't be a drama if 1000 of them got sold at 220, although I prefer to keep hold of those

I think the chances of the SP going to 300 or back to 200 are a coin-flip, so I'm a bit wary of writing -c260's against all my shares as there's a chance they go ITM fast, then it's a big management to recover. If I allow 1000 to exercise at 220 then I've mitigated risk in the current climate by increasing my cash-on-hand, and I can consider writing puts against that extra capital, which will bring in more premium, worst-case is I get 1000 shares assigned back, but at a lower cost-basis -> I have avoided writing puts recently because I didn't want to deplete my cash further

The other 10x -c220, which I don't really want to exercise, I always have the option to roll them up and out 6 months to -c300, or whatever, and still be left with 80% of my shares at a much higher SP, and the ability to write shitcalls at a comfortable strike

Small difference for the moment is that I prefer to hold these shares long, I'm hyper-bullish on Tesla, but know full-well that TSLA doesn't always follow along

Note I also wrote 15x Jan 24 -c300's last week against my 15x Jan 24 +c233's. Rationale here is that those LEAP's are 50% down right now, with no guarantee they'll come good. Worst-case is that the -c300's go ITM, but then the delta between the two positions + the premium I took, recuperates my initial investment. They're also a small downside hedge and I'll re-buy the position if we dump again, resell when it recovers - I can also decide to cover those with shares if necessary and sell the LEAPS if they go big, then start to roll them up and out, that's another possibility
 
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A few things i'm trying to do to improve success rate based on learnings from a painful year.
- Choose strike and timing of entry based on sp rather than premium (much easier said than done)
- Don't fly as close to the sun (seems to be the cause of most issues)
- Don't do BPS on TSLA on margin anymore (too volatile, too dangerous)
- Live to trade another day

Since I have margin rather than cash collateral I've decided to only do BPS on SPY/QQQ for a while, in addition to selling CC's. I feel comfortable escaping CC and CSP positions that go south but BPS positions that go ITM have resulted in a painful margin death spiral for me, much less easy to escape. Have been caught a couple of times and have lost shares as a result. I have some margin debt to pay off but my account is still in ok shape all things considered, that's where living to trade another day comes in. This is all MHO, specific to my situation and maybe obvious to you folks but sharing in case anyone finds useful ✌️
 
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Very quiet in here today.🤨

My portfolio margin finally got back to the point where I can trade CC without a massive Initial Margin hit. So in and out for a quick daytrade earlier with a $1.60 difference on $230CC. (peak difference ended up close to $3 but Ill take what I can get).

I also opened a few BPS at $187.5/202.5 and $185/200 for $0.75 and $.60 respectively. Again not the bottom of the MMD but now getting reasonably profitable.
 
Very quiet in here today.🤨

My portfolio margin finally got back to the point where I can trade CC without a massive Initial Margin hit. So in and out for a quick daytrade earlier with a $1.60 difference on $230CC. (peak difference ended up close to $3 but Ill take what I can get).

I also opened a few BPS at $187.5/202.5 and $185/200 for $0.75 and $.60 respectively. Again not the bottom of the MMD but now getting reasonably profitable.
Everyone's bored to death with the SP action...
 
watching (and learning from) the algobots making their somewhat predictable morning moves

as of this morning,
  • sp retraced to 50% of today's Hi/Lo
  • then, it went to the 50% of the 10am MMD from 229 to 222.8
  • then, it went to today's fib 61.8%, as expected
what does this mean to me? if i had 1000 shares, this was an easy quick $4,000 profit - just watch the price action and predict where the bots are going... they are going to the fibs

1667230521797.png
 
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