Oh look, someone who thinks he can time the market
Your feedback is appreciated, this thread is for timing the market lol.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Your feedback is appreciated, this thread is for timing the market lol.
bballshinobi
Member
I think your color lenses are just red right now because the stock is doing so bad. When Tesla raised prices last year, did you think ātesla canāt control its cost!ā or ādemand must be through the roof!ā. Maybe, just maybe, Tesla is lowering price in China because it can, because inflation is coming down and costs in china are getting lower as people need jobs and suppliers need to survive. Just maybe.
Hopefully Iām not posting in the wrong thread. Thought this was the Wheel Options thread, not the main chit chat one.Letās try to keep it that way. Anyway, did the roll on todayās pop, freeing up enough cash to fill out a lot in two accounts, then sold 11/11 -c190s. Damn, never been that brazen before, so I guess this is a B/W dare you to take āem. Iām rapidly approaching 1:2 put/call ratio on my account with all this buying, so wonāt be too upset to lose a few, but still planning to roll weekly for credit just for practice to keep in the game. Most straddles are at 12/16 200s, but now also have a few at 190, 192.50, and 195 (various 11/11-12/09).
What Iām learning is: that even 30 DTE straddles seem to require DAILY monitoring and adjustments to keep the strike in contact with the SP with the massive price variations that are common with TSLA. Must be mentally divorced from āowningā TSLA, have full cash/share backing and plenty of free cash for rolling. However, still love the premiums. Hopefully this helps others.
Edit: just looked at the Fibonacci series and voila, 190 is the 78% level, so perhaps a target for Friday. If that breaks, then itās 200, maybe even up to 50% at $207.50. Hopefully this is the bounce that weāre all wanting.
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How do you adjust your straddles? Do you always go out another week, and roll closer to sp?
Opened 200 strike cc for 11/18 @ 3 (shares around 186). This is on about 1/4th of my possible positions. My plan of the moment, constantly being adjusted, is that I'd like to add another 1/4th of possible positions for 11/25 sooner than later, with a target of having as many as 1/2 of my possible cc's open, spread out over 2 weeks. In practice I expect good early close opportunities and will have a tough time actually having 2 of these positions open at a time.
My initial trading rules - I won't open 2 of these positions on the same day. I am willing to close both of these positions on the same day though. By putting opens on 2 different days I will better handle any circumstances where I get 2 strong days up in a row.
EDIT: its completely irrational, but part of the 200 strike cc strategy is to taunt the share price to come get me. I've got a much bigger put side position right now, so these cc's going ITM will be a big net win
With all of my cc's I'd much rather be at the 230+ strike, but this is where we're at.
Should one of these start going ITM and get tough to roll, I've got another 1/4th position I'm ready to open to either continue the income while the first 1/4th gets assigned or to help that first 1/4th with a debit roll to improve the strike by a lot.
Yes - this basic idea comes to me from @MaxPain, and I like it.
When current csp / bps get cleared up I plan to start something similar with those positions.
My initial trading rules - I won't open 2 of these positions on the same day. I am willing to close both of these positions on the same day though. By putting opens on 2 different days I will better handle any circumstances where I get 2 strong days up in a row.
EDIT: its completely irrational, but part of the 200 strike cc strategy is to taunt the share price to come get me. I've got a much bigger put side position right now, so these cc's going ITM will be a big net win
With all of my cc's I'd much rather be at the 230+ strike, but this is where we're at.
Should one of these start going ITM and get tough to roll, I've got another 1/4th position I'm ready to open to either continue the income while the first 1/4th gets assigned or to help that first 1/4th with a debit roll to improve the strike by a lot.
Yes - this basic idea comes to me from @MaxPain, and I like it.
When current csp / bps get cleared up I plan to start something similar with those positions.
Today I have an example of one of the incremental risks taken on when rolling a position. Yesterday I had 185/155 bps expiring tomorrow. When shares dipped below 180 I rolled them out to next week 183/153 bps. I decided that I couldn't risk the share price continuing even further down and losing access to a strike improving roll.
I probably should have considered a >1 week roll as well in case we stayed down.
BUT most of the time on strong moves like these they bounce right back. I have no regrets on the decision that I made, but if I hadn't rolled I would probably be able to close the position today for break even with it expiring tomorrow. Certainly I'd be a lot closer to break even than what I am holding for next week.
The incremental risk is that because the position is for next week it carries a large unrealized loss right now. Holding into next week could mean that the good close that -would- have been available today is as good as I get for this week and next, and I get to repeat the drama next week. Or even have it get worse. A break even close today would enable a nice open tomorrow on a down day - maybe something closer to a 150/120 or 155/125 sort of bps.
But I don't have that break even close available right now.
Sometimes more time isn't on our side.
I probably should have considered a >1 week roll as well in case we stayed down.
BUT most of the time on strong moves like these they bounce right back. I have no regrets on the decision that I made, but if I hadn't rolled I would probably be able to close the position today for break even with it expiring tomorrow. Certainly I'd be a lot closer to break even than what I am holding for next week.
The incremental risk is that because the position is for next week it carries a large unrealized loss right now. Holding into next week could mean that the good close that -would- have been available today is as good as I get for this week and next, and I get to repeat the drama next week. Or even have it get worse. A break even close today would enable a nice open tomorrow on a down day - maybe something closer to a 150/120 or 155/125 sort of bps.
But I don't have that break even close available right now.
Sometimes more time isn't on our side.
MaxPain or MaxPlaid???Opened 200 strike cc for 11/18 @ 3 (shares around 186). This is on about 1/4th of my possible positions. My plan of the moment, constantly being adjusted, is that I'd like to add another 1/4th of possible positions for 11/25 sooner than later, with a target of having as many as 1/2 of my possible cc's open, spread out over 2 weeks. In practice I expect good early close opportunities and will have a tough time actually having 2 of these positions open at a time.
My initial trading rules - I won't open 2 of these positions on the same day. I am willing to close both of these positions on the same day though. By putting opens on 2 different days I will better handle any circumstances where I get 2 strong days up in a row.
EDIT: its completely irrational, but part of the 200 strike cc strategy is to taunt the share price to come get me. I've got a much bigger put side position right now, so these cc's going ITM will be a big net win
With all of my cc's I'd much rather be at the 230+ strike, but this is where we're at.
Should one of these start going ITM and get tough to roll, I've got another 1/4th position I'm ready to open to either continue the income while the first 1/4th gets assigned or to help that first 1/4th with a debit roll to improve the strike by a lot.
Yes - this basic idea comes to me from @MaxPain, and I like it.
When current csp / bps get cleared up I plan to start something similar with those positions.
So, took advantage of today to roll this week's -p200 down to -p195 next week, net $0
Also, I'm very wary that this might not continue, so STO 10x 11/18 -c180 @$11.1 -> TBH I totally ballsed this up, I had a sell order for $15.1 sitting there most of the day, which eventually missed by 5c at the 191 top, so I let it be, then set $14.1, then the SP dumped to 185's and was looking very weak compared to the indices, so I sold for $11.1
Same for STO 5x 11/18 -c195 to straddle the rolled puts, was after $6.5, but gave-in and sold for $4.1
Immediately following these two trades, the SP has shot up from $185 to $190 almost in s straight line
UR Welcome
Still, I have a little downside cover now
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Usually go out one week, sometimes two (unusual). Yes, always adjust closer to SP, usually $5 increment, but $10 isnāt out of the question given some of these crazy drops. Unfortunately, most are now pushed out to 12/16 which I consider too far (not enough theta decay). In a dropping SP environment, this means some cash is released from the CSP (e.g., $500/contract for a $5 drop), which I have been using to buy shares, say 2 shares/contract in the previous example. As long as Iām buying stock at below the strike, it feels like a win. Today purchased shares in the $180s, yesterday $179, and I have CCs or straddles at 190, 192.50, 195, and 200. Also, try to keep enough free cash to buyback the losing side and roll out. Iām probably a bit too close to the SP since itās near the 2-yr low, but will adjust as needed, probably keeping the expiration at 12/16 or closer. Iām worried about the SP running up into the new year.
I dont think we have seen the high of this wave yet. currently sub wave 3 of 1 targeting 203 and then maybe we tag 207-215 before pulling back. Yesterday could have been THE low though its still early. What I know is if it was the low, a lot of loose ends was tied up and we can be on our way to an explosive EOY, despite what has transpired this last week.
Does breaking 191 after-hours count as breaking resistance?
My understanding is resistance levels need to be broken on volume. Right now this would be considered testing the resistance level.
My gut feeling is that we will be slightly down tomorrow on short term profit taking. But itās just a guess.
Gamma positive, we went from -0.08 to +0.03, 200 looks strong, maybe we'll spill over some? Next week too early to tell but I'll expect to close out and take profit, the read is -0.03 at the moment. I'll look for the local high Friday, slip in 215cc's. The block of shares I was assigned should be available tomorrow. Yesterday's low would have been the ideal time to STC the long leg of the nasty BPS blow-up. I may have another opportunity in the coming weeks, you never know. What I can't get myself to do though is sell those shares at half the cost I had them handed to me... 191.40. The plan is to earn it back with safe CC and CSP... event if it takes months, LOL.
The reason I said lots of loose ends were tied up is because the topping process in August - September was extremely confusing. It was impossible to tell with certainty whether TSLA was making a local top of an impulsive series, meaning 207 in June was the bottom. Like this:
Or the entire run up from 207 was a corrective series and TSLA was working on the first stage of another down leg in September, like this:
Now that the down leg scenario has played out, it seems obvious but 2 months ago it was confusing to everyone involved. The result was longs were hesitant to get out and shorts were hesitant to stay in. Coupled with Q3 P&D hype, TSLA was so damn strong relative to the market.
Once a new low was made @ 198.5, it became apparent that a lot of people were trapped up top and now they're trying to get out, which is why the initial bounce off 198.5 was so weak, only good for 35-39 points.
Maybe Elon's selling was known or at the minimum expected by bankers close to him. Maybe that's why we saw massive put bet on TSLA last Thursday just before the plunge. I demand answers!
Well, back to the plunge. It answered a few important questions:
1/ The double top formation in late August - September was the beginning of wave 1 and 2 of a large impulse series. It's not typical for wave 2 to retrace 100% of wave 1 like this but like I said, this was a confusing chart.
2/ The plunge since last Friday - early this week COULD HAVE BEEN wave 5 of this impulse series, meaning this could be THE low for TSLA. I don't expect any lower low to be made. I'm more sure of this than I did @ 198.5.
The complete picture:
The last stage of this correction began in early April and ended yesterday. It came in a zig zag formation: an impulse series, followed by a corrective expanded flat, follow by another impulse series. This is a complete formation.
The 2nd impulse series went 0.764x the length of the first impulse series
Wave 5 of the 2nd impulse series extended 1.618x of wave 4
Double bullish divergence was observed on the daily timeframe, showing exhaustive selling pressure. Kinda hard to believe considering Elon was selling the whole time but that's what the chart shows.
Bounced right at the channel support
Log scale support trendline right below @ 170. You can see how this support trendline has supported and rejected TSLA multiple times since 2010.
Confirmation: As I mentioned earlier. I want to see TSLA pulling back after 207-215. Might go as far as 230. This pullback will be deep, retracing at least 50% of the initial bounce from 175. However, at the end of the pullback, I want to see double bullish divergence on a 1h+ timeframe. It cannot go lower than 175, preferably no lower than 180. If something as impulsive as this week sell off happens, then we haven't seen the low yet and I have to rework the chart.
Can I guarantee the low is in? No. But, all the ingredients are finally here in term of price and structure. Now we just need TSLA to execute Q4 and Elon to say he's done selling. Well, if you subscribe to the idea that someone always knows, then maybe someone already knows Elon is close to being done. That's why the stock got to where it got to but not any lower.
Or the entire run up from 207 was a corrective series and TSLA was working on the first stage of another down leg in September, like this:
Now that the down leg scenario has played out, it seems obvious but 2 months ago it was confusing to everyone involved. The result was longs were hesitant to get out and shorts were hesitant to stay in. Coupled with Q3 P&D hype, TSLA was so damn strong relative to the market.
Once a new low was made @ 198.5, it became apparent that a lot of people were trapped up top and now they're trying to get out, which is why the initial bounce off 198.5 was so weak, only good for 35-39 points.
Maybe Elon's selling was known or at the minimum expected by bankers close to him. Maybe that's why we saw massive put bet on TSLA last Thursday just before the plunge. I demand answers!
Well, back to the plunge. It answered a few important questions:
1/ The double top formation in late August - September was the beginning of wave 1 and 2 of a large impulse series. It's not typical for wave 2 to retrace 100% of wave 1 like this but like I said, this was a confusing chart.
2/ The plunge since last Friday - early this week COULD HAVE BEEN wave 5 of this impulse series, meaning this could be THE low for TSLA. I don't expect any lower low to be made. I'm more sure of this than I did @ 198.5.
The complete picture:
The last stage of this correction began in early April and ended yesterday. It came in a zig zag formation: an impulse series, followed by a corrective expanded flat, follow by another impulse series. This is a complete formation.
The 2nd impulse series went 0.764x the length of the first impulse series
Wave 5 of the 2nd impulse series extended 1.618x of wave 4
Double bullish divergence was observed on the daily timeframe, showing exhaustive selling pressure. Kinda hard to believe considering Elon was selling the whole time but that's what the chart shows.
Bounced right at the channel support
Log scale support trendline right below @ 170. You can see how this support trendline has supported and rejected TSLA multiple times since 2010.
Confirmation: As I mentioned earlier. I want to see TSLA pulling back after 207-215. Might go as far as 230. This pullback will be deep, retracing at least 50% of the initial bounce from 175. However, at the end of the pullback, I want to see double bullish divergence on a 1h+ timeframe. It cannot go lower than 175, preferably no lower than 180. If something as impulsive as this week sell off happens, then we haven't seen the low yet and I have to rework the chart.
Can I guarantee the low is in? No. But, all the ingredients are finally here in term of price and structure. Now we just need TSLA to execute Q4 and Elon to say he's done selling. Well, if you subscribe to the idea that someone always knows, then maybe someone already knows Elon is close to being done. That's why the stock got to where it got to but not any lower.
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Seems it will cost me a lot of cash to walk in the streets of Montreal. I am a man of my word. Who is homeless here before I go out take a walk?
Sold 11/11 200CCs this morning. I hope I have to roll them tomorrow.
Attachments
Concern about possible drop in SP and/or IV tomorrow prompted sale of half the planned CC ā 1118-c$207.50 for $2.21 at 12:24 pm (~$191), thinking we might be done with the rise for today. Turns out that was right. Will do other half tomorrow at +10% OTM also for 11/18.
IV of 11/18 is at 76.90% and there is a chance of 11/18 Close being +/- 17.21 from today's Close (173.51-207.93)
not exact science, just probability
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I believe that particular dumpster fire is fully priced into the TSLA share price already.
TSLA Hour of Day Seasonality
in 2022, 11:30am-12:30pm is the least green (best time to "buy low" and then "sell high" the next hour?)
i will be paying more attention to this stat and drill down further, if daytrading is to be the majority source of my income
in 2022, 11:30am-12:30pm is the least green (best time to "buy low" and then "sell high" the next hour?)
i will be paying more attention to this stat and drill down further, if daytrading is to be the majority source of my income
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