I'll echo this. I had -p300 for Apr 2023 that had less than a dollar of extrinsic at the close yesterday. I was anticipating getting assigned, but was able to roll this morning to Sep 2023 -p260 by adding a contract. Bought myself $13 more of extrinsic and hopefully time to recover from the this abyss.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Xepa777
Banned
I keep saying this, Dan Ives was pumping Nikola when it IPOd. That shows you he actually knows nothing. Just because he’s a bull doesn’t mean he knows what he’s saying.
Ives is a fundamental analyst, and what is happening now has more to do with technicals and macro/extraneous factors, than the fundamentals. In terms of 1-year and out targets based on fundamentals, nothing has changed, and if anything has only gotten better with improved efficiencies at GigaChina, etc. So in my view Dan is letting the emotions of the moment get to him a bit.. but I do appreciate his analysis more than other WS analysts.
dc_h
Active Member
Anyone else watching and thinking Elon will sell some more, or something will send us back down? I am not selling CCs for next week at this point, but hard to get confidence high for a sustained recovery.
Monday I opened a 11/25 200 straddle for $22. At this point I’m leaning toward letting one side getting assigned, and then either doing a Put of Call to clean up the side that loses. Actually, I sold a 12/9 180C yesterday for $13, so if the 200 Put from the straddle gets assigned, those shares cover the 180 call with still a small profit overall on the lower half, and full profit on the 200C of the straddle.
In the short term, I'm looking for a bounce anywhere in the 186-182.5 zone. Lower than 182.5 and we need to get defensive. For sign of a sustained rally, I want to see double bullish divergence on a 1H time frame. Once 200 - 207 is touched, we should pull back sharply for wave 2, making a higher low, dcb, then a lower, but still higher low. That's when a divergence can be observed which signals selling pressure has subsided. The chart doesn't look that bullish. We are going to need some sort of assurance from Elon and I don't know what else. TSLA's underperforming its beta from a fresh 52W low. Sad.
Today is a good day to sell some SQQQ naked puts ~ 45 strike for next week. This is for income. For hedging, maybe 47-48. I also sold 215 CC for next week. I don't see us breaking and holding 215 through next week just yet. Even 210 will work wonder.
Moreover, like I mentioned above, if you want to get back in, don't do it right now. Wait for the divergence on a higher timeframe before jumping back in will maximize your risk : reward.
Moreover, like I mentioned above, if you want to get back in, don't do it right now. Wait for the divergence on a higher timeframe before jumping back in will maximize your risk : reward.
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Xepa777
Banned
That’s even worse. If you were a fundamental analyst you would know that Milton’s numbers he was spouting about his hydrogen truck were so far off that they were clear fraud territory. Or his wishy washy approach to electric and hydrogen drive trains and capex + r&d commitment to invest in them. Or a look at the history of its factory progress. The red signs
were all over the effing place pre IPO.That’s not a “whoops he got one wrong” moment like what many Wall Street analysts do. That’s straight up discrediting.
I sold some $202.5cc and $205 for $0.5 and $0.35 for tomorrow earlier today. So far up 50% I think I am going to close tjem today in case we keep going up tomorrow or we get some good Elon news.
On the other hand, qualitative factors work both ways. While numbers still look great, a distracted Elon raises questions if those numbers won't be adversely affected.
Furthermore, we all know PTs are mostly bogus. What not bogus is Ives' tendency to cover his ass in the event more selling will come from Elon. At this point, 250 is a ways away and if needed Ives can always raise it back but for now, Elon is really making it hard for institutions to rally behind him. I'm an Elon fanboi and this is painful. Tesla has come a long way since 2020 and Elon made it all happen but most people who bought in the last 2 years based on moderate analyses like those from Gary Black are all underwater and again it's for a large part due to Elon. 2 years is a long time for many people.
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Papafox thinks somebody is selling today - Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable.
Strong agree. Unfortunately, we will also now have to contend with potential demand concerns out of China for this quarter and beyond. Weekly registrations could put those to bed, and, barring that, sustained margins at Q1 earnings. But in the meantime, those concerns could easily suppress any rally.
It's just been a helluva year, unfortunately. Almost the mirror to 2021.
wow, he called it hrs before it happened... Prev Day Open 190.78 is indeed the ceiling so far
in other news: fibs 50 and 61 very nice today on 5-min, got $4 instead of the usual $1/day
edit: and 50EMA providing supp
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SebastienBonny
Member
STO 205CC for next friday for 2.
Planning on using the strategy posted here a few days ago and rolling + adding an extra contract if needed.
Planning on using the strategy posted here a few days ago and rolling + adding an extra contract if needed.
Another price drop rumor from China. I sold half of my TSLA shares and I’m at peace with my decision. No regrets if it goes parabolic here. In fact I might even sell more if we somehow start going up more. Yes it’s rumors but when there are macro concerns you have to give it some credence. Will be trading small size for the rest of the year. Mostly ICs etc.
Even if Elon comes out tonight and says he is done selling the damage is already done and based how he explains the new round of selling we could be in for a rough 2-3 month ride at the very least.
It sure feels a majority of the bulls are sub consciously ignoring the macro situation. Who cares about FSD now if we are not going to be able to sell metal at good margins? I’m posting my thoughts here only because we care about short term price movements.
How are you guys assessing all these events?
Even if Elon comes out tonight and says he is done selling the damage is already done and based how he explains the new round of selling we could be in for a rough 2-3 month ride at the very least.
It sure feels a majority of the bulls are sub consciously ignoring the macro situation. Who cares about FSD now if we are not going to be able to sell metal at good margins? I’m posting my thoughts here only because we care about short term price movements.
How are you guys assessing all these events?
Xepa777
Banned
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