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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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i feel like algobots are playing ping pong right now. No obvious momentum in either direction. But I would guess an upward move followed by a close around $162-3
Yeah, I can't decide. I'm thinking a lot of short selling went into today's drop, so they may try to cover before the close (as they succeeded in getting shares from people like me). Then they can do it again tomorrow if there is any weakness in the QQQ at the open.
 
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I set limit orders to buy the shares back (that I had sold at 159). I kept missing it by like .2. Finally got them back at 161.5, and sold 160CC at the same time for $6.05. So I'm up $3.55 and have that to play with. If the SP goes up, I can basically roll up and out to a higher strike for a $3.55 debit without losing any money, and keep my shares. If the SP drop again tomorrow, I can sell them again at 156 and not have lost any money. Now I'll have to see if I can stick to the plan....
 
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So today we got a backtest of the falling wedge. It held.

Since we made a new low, I'm expecting the hourly 200 EMA to act as resistance at least once more @ 180 sometimes this Friday - next Monday. What we are seeing is a rounding bottom developing with each new low looking less scary than the last.

If you're selling CC's now, as did, expect a strong bounce to 180 before pulling back. Close your CC @ 170 in that case. Though I said it was a bad time to sell CC's, a new low negates that.
1670965371324.png
 
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Wow, wild ride today. I guess 150 isn't a distraction after all, it is a thing! The pull down continued, maybe 2:1 put heavy, still feeling good about the mid 170's the next couple days.

I closed all my CCs, sold 12/16 +126.67/-146.67 for .80.
Tried rolling two DITM BPS to Jan '25, no go. Although I set a decent limit for each, the price kept going up (from 7.50 , ended closer to 8.50) , yet the price of the underlying moved +/- $1 ... maybe had to do with IV ???

TSLA-TotalGamma-13Dec2022.png
TSLA-TotalGamma-12Dec2022.png
 
TSLA during FOMC days, is it volatile?

In 2022,
  • there is 71% probability that the morning is green (before rate is released)
  • there is 57% probability that 2-230pm is red (rate is released)
  • there is 57% probability that 230-4pm is green (Fed speech about the release)
  • there is 57% probability that the day is green (Close-Open)
  • there is 57% probability that next day is red
View attachment 869981
TSLA on FOMC Days

tsla tanked the last 2 times the Fed spoke

1670969184897.png
 
So today we got a backtest of the falling wedge. It held.

Since we made a new low, I'm expecting the hourly 200 EMA to act as resistance at least once more @ 180 sometimes this Friday - next Monday. What we are seeing is a rounding bottom developing with each new low looking less scary than the last.

If you're selling CC's now, as did, expect a strong bounce to 180 before pulling back. Close your CC @ 170 in that case. Though I said it was a bad time to sell CC's, a new low negates that.
View attachment 884610

Thanks for this.

Where do you see the pullback landing and taking us in 2023. Some are talking about $150 and $120, even $60. For some of us stuck with margin (not always deliberate) that’s scary as hell 🫣