The bounce in TSLA did indeed go much higher than the one seen in SEDG and now we have a bearish divergence on the daily timeframe. However, it has to be confirmed by a gap down & the gap not filled on the same day to call the top at 215. The consolidation phase seen in SEDG is considered bullish and I'm expecting the one in TSLA to be even more bullish.Remember this chart? This is it now. Feel old yet?
All joking aside. I don't think TSLA will follow the SEDG chart on the right exactly. More specifically, I think the rebound next week and the week after will go much higher, to 213 at least, before really correcting.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
STO - 06/16 $250P's for $55 each - BTO June 2025 $250 C's at $65 each (with a little extra cash)
Did this as I see a good pop with earnings / investor day and hitting $250 before June and I really like loading up on leaps.
Did this as I see a good pop with earnings / investor day and hitting $250 before June and I really like loading up on leaps.
That was a pretty bullish close I'd say! They tried to keep it below 214 and failed. And it wasn't a last-minute pop, strong and steady buying through the power-hour
Sorry, can you elaborate? we saw the bearish divergence when we dipped back to 210 @ 3pm EST. Then it was all out to close at the high of the day...Please dont stop the music....
The bearish divergence developed as soon as we stopped spiking at 215. Look at the 2 red arrows on MACD and RSISorry, can you elaborate? we saw the bearish divergence when we dipped back to 210 @ 3pm EST. Then it was all out to close at the high of the day...Please dont stop the music....
MACD and RSI are rolling momentum indicators. When we make new highs on the SP but MACD and RSI fail to make new highs of their own, it means the initial upward momentum that carried TSLA up to 213 last week has run out of steam and is now slowly being replaced by a sideway momentum. That's what topping looks like. First we have buyers overwhelming sellers. Then we have buyers and sellers at an equilibrium. Then we have sellers overwhelming buyers.
The white wedge shape is the manifestation of the previous upward momentum. As TSLA fell out of the wedge, it fell out of the previous momentum train. The last 5 days can be looked at as basing. You know what we say, "the longer the base, the bigger the breakout." Well, we've been basing for 5 days - longer than every other basing period since 102 <- this is key - but the breakout only managed to overtake the previous high by $2. Tomorrow we can still go up, don't get me wrong, but we have to go up by a magnitude that can justify the 5 day consolidation. If not, it's just a sign of running out of buyers at this level.
Today close by itself is bullish, however a few things concern me.
1. It's not choppy today. I want to see a choppy day, not a boring day, before a spike.
2. IV fell significantly into the close
3. Many meme stocks are flying today while SPY is flat. This is suspicious and smells like distribution onto retails.
So yes, I'm leaning on more gains tomorrow, but the topping process is well underway IMHO. TSLA is just half the picture. The market (SPY) also makes me think we're topping out. Market is not looking pretty. CPI reading wasn't pretty. Something doesn't smell right with this (meme stock) rally. If TSLA was running alone then I'd be much more bullish short term. I don't like when TSLA runs with meme stocks. Sorry for the rant.
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This kinda sums it up well I think:
Ok you got me on my toes about to be ready to roll my CCs back in. Even Pierre Roberge sold his TSLA Friday.
Are you sure he sold? The title of todays video is:
Staying above 205.15 looking good to go further"
and he said at the end "let's just ride this pony into the horizon"
His targets are $233 and $250.
Are you sure he sold? The title of todays video is:
Staying above 205.15 looking good to go further"
and he said at the end "let's just ride this pony into the horizon"
His targets are $233 and $250.
On his members-only longer TA video this Sunday he mentioned that he sold because he noticed some weakness and TSLA might begin to retreat, though it could be he hopped back in given the clarity of direction since then, along with stochastic over 60 on the 1-Hr chart.
Selling at tops or near-tops and buying at bottoms or near-bottoms is a good way to double and triple holdings, and it’s what he specializes in doing. Not a perfect science and he doesn’t claim it to be, but he has it pretty well figured out. Watch some of his videos. I personally enjoy and respect his work.
Are you sure he sold? The title of todays video is:
Staying above 205.15 looking good to go further"
and he said at the end "let's just ride this pony into the horizon"
He sold. Yes.
His targets are $233 and $250.
When asked if he sold Thursday if Friday when stochastic was lost on the 1hr chart he answered he did.
I told myself I would follow his calls and see where that brings me. So I am thinking about closing my +50% -p250 Jan2025 and rolling my CCs back in. Just need to see more profit taking and more puts options buying on the options flow to convince me. Retails are FOMOing in big time and that’s when smart money is going to cash in I guess.
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Curious if Investor Day has a gravitational force on the stock over the next few weeks for yet another classic sell the news event?
Curious if Investor Day has a gravitational force on the stock over the next few weeks for yet another classic sell the news event?
Looks like we may still have some room left to run.
Pre-market curently $217.41 has cleared the 200 Day EMA and then we've got the 200 Day SMA at $224.67 and the upper BB at $229.64. Now it all depends on the PPI not tanking the market and we could enjoy a bit more upside before the market makers try to rest control for Friday.
Pre-market curently $217.41 has cleared the 200 Day EMA and then we've got the 200 Day SMA at $224.67 and the upper BB at $229.64. Now it all depends on the PPI not tanking the market and we could enjoy a bit more upside before the market makers try to rest control for Friday.
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scubastevo80
Member
Personal opinion - everyone is ignoring the fact that TSLA is up over 100% in under 2 months from the lows. The market has gone from it could be a mild landing or bad, to its a mild landing and risk on. There's been so much "chartology" attempting to justify the continued run of all companies, TSLA included, that earnings/valuation realities are detaching from stock prices yet again. I certainly could be jaded here (still rolling 152.5 calls) but I just can't justify a rally of this magnitude amidst higher interest rates.
The PPI just came in hot. Also labor market status quo - hot.
I don’t see a FED meeting without a quarter point increase until CPI comes in around 4 or a softening labor market. Will that happen this year?
You are ignoring the fact that we should have never hit that low. TSLA should still be 300+ right now if you look at its earnings and growth, and compare to other companies like AMZN, etc.
I'm not going to say that macros might save my 227.5CC for tomorrow..., because doing so could jinx it....
SebastienBonny
Member
Well even today might give us a chance to close CC's early.
This - the drop from 300 to 200 was a self-inflicted wound, missing on Q3 deliveries, then all the Twitter mess, selling more shares on open market, etc., not saying it was justified, but you can see some reasons behind it
Falling from 200 to 100, that was unjustified, pure manipulation by Wall Street to flush-out retail with margin calls then suck up shares cheap, all this rally has done is correct that
From here, who knows, but it's all good news for Tesla right now and the growth-story is back on again. Lots of institutional buying which would accelerate if Moodys were't playing their games. FOMO all over the place. Short squeeze, Gamma squeeze, Investor Day, it's all happening
Interest rates? Who cares. Tesla have little or no debt, don't need to raise, will grow as much as they can regardless of the FED. All smoke and mirrors, which the bears cling onto and spout at every opportunity
ICE is finished, it's over, regardless of the legislation progressively banning them, people don't want them any more. Bet against this and to be honest you're a bit stupid, well more than a bit
Still very cautious with CC:
- Against <25% of shares
- Rolled a B-W (17Feb$195 —> 3Mar$205, $195 cost, $0.10 debit to gain $10)
- A small new B-W 3Mar$230 at $8, $227 cost (juicy for 16 DTE)
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