I STO -c195 first thing this morning. I dont expect a major run today before the CPI. Might close at the end of the day if gaining >40% or let it run till the end of the week.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
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SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Already have been selling some shares , Alas still no 190+ to go -C and I don't expect SP to rise significantly today.
Will buy back in portions on SP below 184 increasingly. No big risks this week, although the stage is set as described above. But you never know for sure.
My -C on Meta, NVDA, SPY and QQQ will have to do the rest. I think really shorting Tesla is risky in this always up-looking month of april although WS usually screws SP up on 1st quarter "misses".
Will buy back in portions on SP below 184 increasingly. No big risks this week, although the stage is set as described above. But you never know for sure.
My -C on Meta, NVDA, SPY and QQQ will have to do the rest. I think really shorting Tesla is risky in this always up-looking month of april although WS usually screws SP up on 1st quarter "misses".
Looks like an expanded flat with last Friday as the first leg up. I dont think today is the first leg up because that means we have to dump after CPI, then rally, then crash again. Too much drama.
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Heres SPY right now
Heres SPY 2 months ago
Heres SPY in early 2022
Its running on the same MO. Once the top is in and after the first dump, a flat variation retracement occurs before the 2nd dump. its just happening on a smaller and smaller timeframe. First time 10 months, 2nd time 5 weeks. This time probably 7-10 days. So at least now SPY and TSLA look well-synced in the short term.
Heres SPY 2 months ago
Heres SPY in early 2022
Its running on the same MO. Once the top is in and after the first dump, a flat variation retracement occurs before the 2nd dump. its just happening on a smaller and smaller timeframe. First time 10 months, 2nd time 5 weeks. This time probably 7-10 days. So at least now SPY and TSLA look well-synced in the short term.
Are you suggesting we’re heading to $160 area over the next few days/week before 200 or one more (fake) run to 200 then down?
Thanks again for sharing your insights with us!
The next time we see 200 its likely not gonna be fake so Im mostly betting on 160 now.
I’m guessing then elevator down starts tomorrow with CPI and 2pm Powell trigger.
Further guessing this means close all CSPs today and sell -C over 195 for 4/21 (unless earning can surprise and the visit to 160 will be short and brief?).
What are you seeing as to timeline/velocity?
technically we have till next Tuesday to find a bottom but since ER is right around the corner I guess you can say next Friday.
Wow! That means no FOMO run into earnings is likely, and continued down after (earnings is next Wednesday). Does it therefore make sense to close all CSP’s and sell -C195s for 4/21 (NFA)?
How are you playing it?
Thanks again!
Im actually agnostic about ER. Its a window. The low can occur before ER. Having ER just extends the theoretical window a bit. Im not really doing much, just converting my -207.5C this week to -232.33C next week at a 3:1 ratio. This is because Im taking cash out of my account for a big purchase. If I was making bets, I would buy puts here. Selling options into a double triple event isnt helping me sleep at night.
BTC 15 x p177.5 4/14 for $0.80, a profit of 80%.
I’m getting out of the way of the CPI report and want to avoid being forced to roll to next week, a bullet I dodged yesterday when we dropped to 176.
I’m one of those who think the drastic price cuts will bring margins down to 15% and that’s something the market will not like. My long shares are hoping that I’m wrong, but I’m not taking any chances. Ofcourse I would like to take advantage of the high IV, but if I take a position for 4/21 it will be far OTM.
I’m getting out of the way of the CPI report and want to avoid being forced to roll to next week, a bullet I dodged yesterday when we dropped to 176.
I’m one of those who think the drastic price cuts will bring margins down to 15% and that’s something the market will not like. My long shares are hoping that I’m wrong, but I’m not taking any chances. Ofcourse I would like to take advantage of the high IV, but if I take a position for 4/21 it will be far OTM.
Excellent, thanks.
I BTO x4 P160 4/28 @$2.10 and 2x P170 4/28 @ $4.00.
(I’m keeping several $195 and $200 -C 4/14 and 4/21 open on shares I want taken away at those prices. Will watch market and either let them expire/exercise or BTC on weakness.)
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Don't assume what happens with ER. Tesla has a lot of leeway in terms of recognizing regulatory credits and they have been doing just that to beat consensus the last several quarters.
Closed out all this week's positions ahead of CPI, will look to re-enter with something tomorrow, if opportunity presents itself
Since CPI is tomorrow, sharing some data from Cary Atrec that was just posted:
TLDW: A close tomorrow below $185.30 is bearish and brings $146.06 within 2-3 weeks or sooner.
Also opening below $185.30 tomorrow is a sell signal. May have first stop at $172.92 intra-day, with $146.06 within 2-3 weeks or sooner.
For upside, if we close above $195.62 (fat chance…
) then $216.81 within reach by end of next week.
GLTA
TLDW: A close tomorrow below $185.30 is bearish and brings $146.06 within 2-3 weeks or sooner.
Also opening below $185.30 tomorrow is a sell signal. May have first stop at $172.92 intra-day, with $146.06 within 2-3 weeks or sooner.
For upside, if we close above $195.62 (fat chance…
) then $216.81 within reach by end of next week. GLTA
^^^
I sat on my hands yesterday and today, will sell calls tomorrow post CPI, staying away from spreads this week! We are again gamma positive today, some OI action down under, will see better in the morning when OI is updated. Most notable are p185 and p170, and c190.
I sat on my hands yesterday and today, will sell calls tomorrow post CPI, staying away from spreads this week! We are again gamma positive today, some OI action down under, will see better in the morning when OI is updated. Most notable are p185 and p170, and c190.
I think the only way we see $146 is with an earnings miss. But with consensus at 0.86, and earnings probably coming in >$1, I predict a massive beat.Since CPI is tomorrow, sharing some data from Cary Atrec that was just posted:
TLDW: A close tomorrow below $185.30 is bearish and brings $146.06 within 2-3 weeks or sooner.
Also opening below $185.30 tomorrow is a sell signal. May have first stop at $172.92 intra-day, with $146.06 within 2-3 weeks or sooner.
For upside, if we close above $195.62 (fat chance…
GLTA
EVNow
Well-Known Member
petit_bateau
Active Member
Yeah but if you apply the >10% over-optimism adjustment that I typically score then my forecast EPS of $1.06 collapses to $0.96 .
(Why people think I am the pessimist beats me)
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
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