What does CPI stand for?
Calls
Possibly
In the money
Overal 0.1% under expectations, core in line.
Calls
Possibly
In the money
Overal 0.1% under expectations, core in line.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
In hindsight derisking yesterday wasn't necessary for us put sellers, but better to be safe than sorry and live another day.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
going -P is too soon IMHO as stated yesterday. False flags are being placed right now. I might be wrong but I will stick to my earlier plan. Buyback -CC and stock tomorrow or friday into the pre-ER rally. With a premium gain and profit on stock (i.e. cheaper than sold)
[Edit best to go -P on a bigger low ;-) /Edit]
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SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Closing yesterday's gap-up already and again bounced off my famous purple danger zone, as a resistance this time.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
I sold some 210cc's for next week at $2.5. I am going to wait and sell more covered calls next week hoping that the IV goes up and the FOMO kicks in but it doesn't seem like MM's want to let the stock run so that's why I sold some CC's early.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
It was so evidently clear that I sold some more stocks on the way down (@188.78), of course to buy them back around 174 (or any other lower than 188 price today, if this was the low already) as I don't want to be out of my normal stock# overnight ever again.
[Edit] Story ain't over yet, because all of this is happening with very low volume, so be ready for a move up suddenly (maybe on FED minutes, that likely will have an effect). Big boys leave their powder dry.
Keep on closely watching, more surprises (either way) may be ahead. React, don't predict . I of course still say "down"into next days. No advice...[/Edit]
[Edit] Story ain't over yet, because all of this is happening with very low volume, so be ready for a move up suddenly (maybe on FED minutes, that likely will have an effect). Big boys leave their powder dry.
Keep on closely watching, more surprises (either way) may be ahead. React, don't predict . I of course still say "down"into next days. No advice...[/Edit]
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SpeedyEddy
Active Member
No 0DTE SPY updates today, because they don't matter at all (low volumes, out of fear I guess, which in itself strengthened my yesterday's and today's posts, which coincided with our Elliot wave wizard's vision, that often is accurate. )
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Back in business around $183.25 on all of my stock for the moment, saw everything except TSLA go up (while TSLA did best on uptrends the last days.) and got some cold feet.
Shorters at work during lunch-hour I think, but they can not stand the heat after lunch I think, maybe they will let it run again. All in all I am up 25% in stock count this year on day trades and options, not bad. (Meanwhile I sea I was a bit too early, but I also cannot predict the bottom for sure (still think 174. Will sell friday puts 155 or so at that point for sure). TSLA still doing far worse..for nothing?
Shorters at work during lunch-hour I think, but they can not stand the heat after lunch I think, maybe they will let it run again. All in all I am up 25% in stock count this year on day trades and options, not bad. (Meanwhile I sea I was a bit too early, but I also cannot predict the bottom for sure (still think 174. Will sell friday puts 155 or so at that point for sure). TSLA still doing far worse..for nothing?
Just being silly is all.why? you predicted the likes...
According to my most recent intense mental acrobatic exercise which is too complicated to describe on screen, I think the bottom before ER should be around 174-170, with the option to extend to 160 after ER. If it's really bad, may see 153 intraday. Due to the structure of this 2nd leg having morphed into a 3 wave zigzag from a 5 wave impulse, it doesn't have to reach 160 anymore. As long as 170 is reached, we could be in the bottoming zone. I'm not saying 170 will be the bottom. I'm saying maybe close your CCs at 170.
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SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Wrong on this call. Options seems to have put on the magic brake on the way down, I was only 1 dollar and a bit off the bottom for now.
So I will do a 0DTE update (never thought it would be this significant, even on days like this)
-Parties struggling to hold for a +410 SPY:
[SPY 409.60 Trading activity mostly: D 410-412 W 410-412 Maxpain for D 409 for W 406]
- so if FED minutes don't move the market, today as most important day for markets will set the course for SPY and the week will (dep)end (a bit lower) on bank earnings, next friday (expected to be not good).
[TSLA 183.70 W Trading levels=maxpain=187.5 M maxpain is lower] Low trading volume.
Could be up a bit from here. But options seem to predict "Sell the ER news"
Opened 15 x short strangle p160/c210 4/21 for $3.06. With one catalyst out of the way I feel confident enough to open this position. I may adjust the strikes if the stock makes a strong move in either direction before earnings.
Added 4 x short strangle p150/c220 4/21 for $1.31.
Ha, so did I get wrong-footed or what! Closing out decent pile of -c185's and -c195's yesterday for "risk management" looked like a sound strategy in pre-market and early trading, but then... and perusing the options I decided that 190 would be the weekly target, so went for some -190 straddles, got the put sell in just before the dump, but missed the call side until the "recovery" back to 185. Well better than a poke in the eye and the roll to next week looks pretty easy with IV being so high
If I don't need to roll anything from this week, next week thinking of 180/200's, we'll see...
Edit: I don't rule-out ATM straddles either, big premiums to be had there, allowing a +/- 9% move
Edit 2: other potential strategy is to allow the -p190's to exercise this week and sell a pile of -c190's for next, again, will see where things land by Friday, if we're heading down then some trading shares would be nice
If I don't need to roll anything from this week, next week thinking of 180/200's, we'll see...
Edit: I don't rule-out ATM straddles either, big premiums to be had there, allowing a +/- 9% move
Edit 2: other potential strategy is to allow the -p190's to exercise this week and sell a pile of -c190's for next, again, will see where things land by Friday, if we're heading down then some trading shares would be nice
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I’m trying to understand something here. I’m still short a lot of c666.65 for January 2024 (the result of a roll last year to get out of trouble) and I simply can’t understand why they are still trading at $0.72.
Earlier this week I saw that I could get $0.72 for short calls which were 12 points OTM expiring this Friday, so a 5% move in one trading week.
My short calls still have 40 weeks to go, but they are a whopping 474 points OTM, which is coincidently also almost 12 points per week. Is the market really thinking a 12 point move this week is as (un)likely as a 12 point move per week for 40 weeks in a row?!?
Earlier this week I saw that I could get $0.72 for short calls which were 12 points OTM expiring this Friday, so a 5% move in one trading week.
My short calls still have 40 weeks to go, but they are a whopping 474 points OTM, which is coincidently also almost 12 points per week. Is the market really thinking a 12 point move this week is as (un)likely as a 12 point move per week for 40 weeks in a row?!?
Not trying to answer but I definitely just went and checked those to see the O.I. and I think a couple more people than you have those open...
I am looking at buying some ATM calls for next week tomorrow or later today to capture the FOMO and IV increase leading up to earnings.
Nothing big - may 5-10 contracts around $185C - would look to offload at roughly double my cost basis or Tuesday if I'm losing money.
With the shares down at 183ish, opened next week 160/152.50s for .72. I felt that the options for this week weren't paying enough - maybe .20 for 170s, and I like being all the way down at 160. Heh - even writing that I keep thinking its a typo and I really meant 170
Anyway - the main thing I'm watching for right now isn't the usual macro stuff of late. I'm looking for a short attack, or even just regular old fashioned bad investor reaction, to the Reuters article about Tesla employees mis using auto pilot video. I saw the inevitable class action lawsuit was filed 2 days later - no surprise there.
My surprise at this point is that misuse of data hasn't yet been the basis for a serious attack - which has me thinking its still coming.
The big problem as a long term investor, as I see it, is that I see that article as an example of quality journalism. This wasn't bad actors slinging mud at the wall to see if anything will stick. The motivation might be a bad one (and might not), and the actors might be bad ones, but the article and journalism itself hops over my bar for quality journalism. I may learn something new that changes that view. For now I see the article as being consistent with a deeper piece with research behind it. In particular the article talks about the methodology, how they know what they're reporting, what they don't know - the sort of info that a reader needs to form their own view into the news.
And taken at face value this is something that goes to an important component of Tesla's value proposition. The reverberations I foresee, with varying degrees of likelihood:
- European data / privacy organization gets involved (GDPR?). Worst case - Tesla is required to stop collecting data / video from cars in Europe due to lax / bad data handling practices. That would be a major blow to Tesla's autonomous driving ambition in Europe. (Involvement practically guaranteed - consequence unknown)
- China decides that on balance, they can keep Tesla building cars in the country that is helping their EV ambitions, while sticking the US in the eye by doing something similar. Even requiring that Tesla stop installing cameras / using the cameras at all (national security). Could be a nothingburger, could be an opportunity that provides coverage for ongoing China / US politics.
-- And don't forget US privacy interests / politics. Could be good cover for them to attack Tesla as well.
-- Heck - they might not even need it for cover for an attack. It could just be good straight up government oversight of a company behaving badly towards consumers.
- US consumers (every country's consumers really) in sufficient numbers decide that they don't like the idea that their Teslas are spying on them, and possibly even collecting and transmitting video that they haven't authorized, and some combination of (1) don't buy, (2) sell and not replace existing car, (3) don't buy FSD where they otherwise would have, and (4) stop using FSD happens. Not that this will be a revolution - only sufficient numbers to change the demand and revenue trajectory.
My personal stance on actual privacy when looking at electronic data is to ask myself - is the information I want private discoverable by law enforcement. My working assumption is that if it is discoverable via warrant, then it is also accessible without a warrant, and that if its really sensitive then I assume that it IS being accessed without a warrant.
Which also means that company employees have access, and that absent a really strong culture of data protection, company employees ARE accessing it. My bar may be exceptionally high. This article tells me that Tesla's message about data privacy and protection, an important part of the business model, isn't backed up in the company culture.
One example - the company uses geofencing to enable service to access cars for service purposes. This tells me that the company has the ability to open up our cars anytime they like, and its the culture behind this capability that makes the idea anathema. This report on behavior inside the company tells me that the culture is not in place that makes this sort of abuse anathema. I have no reason to believe that the capability is actually being abused - that's different. My trust that it won't be abused, or that if it is abused then we can count on Tesla to land like a palette of bricks on the abuser, has been shaken.
Long screed. My primary concern here is very specifically on the short(er) term impact on the share price and how it will be used to push it down. This is also an issue for my longer term investment thesis, so its not something I expect to stop watching any time soon. I'd say this is my new #1 concern with the long term prospects for the company, and is a bigger #1 than my previous #1 (now #2).
Anyway - the main thing I'm watching for right now isn't the usual macro stuff of late. I'm looking for a short attack, or even just regular old fashioned bad investor reaction, to the Reuters article about Tesla employees mis using auto pilot video. I saw the inevitable class action lawsuit was filed 2 days later - no surprise there.
My surprise at this point is that misuse of data hasn't yet been the basis for a serious attack - which has me thinking its still coming.
The big problem as a long term investor, as I see it, is that I see that article as an example of quality journalism. This wasn't bad actors slinging mud at the wall to see if anything will stick. The motivation might be a bad one (and might not), and the actors might be bad ones, but the article and journalism itself hops over my bar for quality journalism. I may learn something new that changes that view. For now I see the article as being consistent with a deeper piece with research behind it. In particular the article talks about the methodology, how they know what they're reporting, what they don't know - the sort of info that a reader needs to form their own view into the news.
And taken at face value this is something that goes to an important component of Tesla's value proposition. The reverberations I foresee, with varying degrees of likelihood:
- European data / privacy organization gets involved (GDPR?). Worst case - Tesla is required to stop collecting data / video from cars in Europe due to lax / bad data handling practices. That would be a major blow to Tesla's autonomous driving ambition in Europe. (Involvement practically guaranteed - consequence unknown)
- China decides that on balance, they can keep Tesla building cars in the country that is helping their EV ambitions, while sticking the US in the eye by doing something similar. Even requiring that Tesla stop installing cameras / using the cameras at all (national security). Could be a nothingburger, could be an opportunity that provides coverage for ongoing China / US politics.
-- And don't forget US privacy interests / politics. Could be good cover for them to attack Tesla as well.
-- Heck - they might not even need it for cover for an attack. It could just be good straight up government oversight of a company behaving badly towards consumers.
- US consumers (every country's consumers really) in sufficient numbers decide that they don't like the idea that their Teslas are spying on them, and possibly even collecting and transmitting video that they haven't authorized, and some combination of (1) don't buy, (2) sell and not replace existing car, (3) don't buy FSD where they otherwise would have, and (4) stop using FSD happens. Not that this will be a revolution - only sufficient numbers to change the demand and revenue trajectory.
My personal stance on actual privacy when looking at electronic data is to ask myself - is the information I want private discoverable by law enforcement. My working assumption is that if it is discoverable via warrant, then it is also accessible without a warrant, and that if its really sensitive then I assume that it IS being accessed without a warrant.
Which also means that company employees have access, and that absent a really strong culture of data protection, company employees ARE accessing it. My bar may be exceptionally high
. This article tells me that Tesla's message about data privacy and protection, an important part of the business model, isn't backed up in the company culture.One example - the company uses geofencing to enable service to access cars for service purposes. This tells me that the company has the ability to open up our cars anytime they like, and its the culture behind this capability that makes the idea anathema. This report on behavior inside the company tells me that the culture is not in place that makes this sort of abuse anathema. I have no reason to believe that the capability is actually being abused - that's different. My trust that it won't be abused, or that if it is abused then we can count on Tesla to land like a palette of bricks on the abuser, has been shaken.
Long screed
. My primary concern here is very specifically on the short(er) term impact on the share price and how it will be used to push it down. This is also an issue for my longer term investment thesis, so its not something I expect to stop watching any time soon. I'd say this is my new #1 concern with the long term prospects for the company, and is a bigger #1 than my previous #1 (now #2).
If I had 666 cc trading at .72, I'd be looking at taking the early close!
I agree that its unlikely that they go ITM between now and then, but the opportunity could make for some sleepless nights. Hopefully at .72 you have recovered all of the losses accumulated getting into that roll, and you can end that position for break even or even a bit of profit at this point.
Really long dated options are rarely priced under $1. The leverage is just too high to risk. If Tesla were to announce great earnings, and guide to decreased cost of manufacturing leading to the ability to keep dropping price for demand purposes while maintaining high margins, right through the possible recession we're talking about... that could kick off kind of a fast jump in price.
It doesn't even have to push that position into the money for it to increase the value enough that you're effectively locked into the position until a whole lot closer to January.
Just one way to think about it. You've got .72/share left to earn in the position right now. Another way to think about it - if you close early, can you earn that .72 by selling new cc closer in? Heck - you could roll those down to 400s if you think that's a safe strike, and pick up some pretty significant coin if you still like the Jan '24 expiration. Not-advice - just ideas to consider. I don't know what I'd be doing, but this has gotten me thinking about some 3-9 month sorts of strikes at a really high strike. Might get me some income now and if share backed then I can also get a strike that will make me happy later to sell at...
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