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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
It will be interesting to see what it predicts for tomorrow, FOMC day. Wicked Stocks shows $261.53 as containment or the down pivot point. I hope that heās right, at least as this weekās containment.
Anyone else open anything or is everyone closed out? I opened a small IC position: 9/22 +p250/-p260/-c270/+c280 just for fun. Iāll probably lose it, as itās an aggressive bet on IV collapse and not SP change. Otherwise, I still have all my shares covered by short CCs, a few 1-3 weeks out, but most into 2024/5 -c300 to -c310s. Iām still worried about a drop back to 220s before returning to 300s+ next year.
I guess you'd calls it "straddles on steroids"
But essentially it's just four calendar spreads, a bull call and a bear put, just that the short strike for each happens for be the same strike and expiry, this is where I'm heading:
30x Dec 2025 +c200 / 30x Jan 2024 -c300 + 30x Dec 2025 +p270 / 30x Sep 2024 -p300
90x Dec 2025 +c200 / 90x Jan 2024 -c300 + 90x Dec 2025 +p270 / 90x Sep 2024 -p300
The September 2024 strike was chosen as I already had 54x DITM -c200's and could flip those to 105x -c300's for free, plus I didn't want to put all my eggs into the Jan 2024 basket, if the SP were to dump I wouldn't have enough cash for 120x put assignments at $300 - yes they're covered by the long puts, but not linked in any way, would get a margin-call that would need to be resolved and I just don't want to go there
I actually think the stock will trend up over time, but with plenty of chop and sideways movement along the way. It's this weekly froth that gives us profits, then occasionally takes them away, sometimes all the profits from the previous 10 weeks, as we know
There's +$65 premium in the January straddle and +$110 in the September, meaning a lot of wiggle-room for profits. If we got a massive move then I'd probably buy back the winning side and rewrite on recovery, that's the benefit with writing monthlies, you can trade in/out of the position without too much stress
If the short puts go ITM I'm sure they're recover, if the short calls go ITM, well I can roll for credit until I can't, and the underlying long LEAPS have plenty of profit baked-in, so wouldn't be a disaster to sell those either, although would generate huge profits and subsequent tax bill, would prefer to generate enough cash over the next couple of years to exercise those LEAPS at expiry, then I can flip to weekly shitcall/put strategy
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the bottom trendline, the 0.5 fib from 243 to 279 and the previous breakout lvl all converged at 261.
How low a strike would you sell calls for 9/22 and 9/29 and would you go beyond into October given how you see PA playing out?
Here's the QTA generated ranges for today. Notice the confluence of Range low, Weekly Support and Max Pain at $262 area. That creates a strong pull in that direction absent massive buying/positive news event driven run.
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SpeedyEddy
Active Member
It will stay boring until 14:00 and especially 14:30-15:00. Until that: Only theta in play.
{edit} that comment disturbed somebody's sleep I guess {/edit}
{edit} that comment disturbed somebody's sleep I guess {/edit}
So will you be out of near-term weeklies? I think itās a good strategy, though seems to be biased to the SP rising from here to $300. The risk I see is that the SP dumps back to $200 in 2024 (not that I expect it, but itās a risk, especially if the Fed decides that inflation hasnāt been whipped into submission). In such a scenario, the calls will theta decay but not the short puts, especially if the SP eventually pins near $280. Also, Iāve noticed that longer term spreads and straddles donāt really decay very much, and often the āwrongā side seems to decay faster. Thatās why I prefer <3 DTE ICs (basically what you are doing, only on a much smaller, shorter timeframe scale). Just a thought.I guess you'd calls it "straddles on steroids"
But essentially it's just four calendar spreads, a bull call and a bear put, just that the short strike for each happens for be the same strike and expiry, this is where I'm heading:
30x Dec 2025 +c200 / 30x Jan 2024 -c300 + 30x Dec 2025 +p270 / 30x Sep 2024 -p300
90x Dec 2025 +c200 / 90x Jan 2024 -c300 + 90x Dec 2025 +p270 / 90x Sep 2024 -p300
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I don't rule out weekly trades, but they'll be more for fun than anything too serious - like the +p200's I bought to cover the quarter end and sold short puts against
Incidentally, I closed out the 100x -p255 short puts on the pop today for +$1 profit, that's a nice $10k from nowhere... will stay out until FOMC has hit, even if they pause or eve drop rates, we could get a sell-the-news
I also bought +20x Dec 2025 +p270's on the pop, initially to cover this week's -p270's in case of a huge sell-off, otherwise I'l going to roll those until they expire, then will sell some more Sep 2024 puts
The long puts are financed by the initial premiums, so depending how they expire you can end up with free long puts to write against all the way to end 2025
FWIW lots of confluences at the $261 area (see circled area -- QTA range low, weekly support, Max Pain) which implies good support.
TSLA bounced nicely off the range low yesterday. Whether it goes back there this week is unclear. Based on QTA data my best guess is that on Friday TSLA hangs out around the $263 area depending on the FOMC announcement today.
If $261 breaks then more aggressive selling will ensue.
I don't think there's something to take a directional trade on yet. IMO the directional edge for a scalp up was when it was at $262 yesterday.
We also have heavy $270 resistance including a sell wall that's been growing all morning:
Edit: I went flat at $265.72 this morning and caught some gains from the overnight. Still thinking about STO -C280 9/22, -C295 9/29, and -C300 10/20 but waiting for a spike to the $270 area, or higher if TSLA drills through, to sell them. But I may also miss the chance if we never spike.
TSLA bounced nicely off the range low yesterday. Whether it goes back there this week is unclear. Based on QTA data my best guess is that on Friday TSLA hangs out around the $263 area depending on the FOMC announcement today.
If $261 breaks then more aggressive selling will ensue.
I don't think there's something to take a directional trade on yet. IMO the directional edge for a scalp up was when it was at $262 yesterday.
We also have heavy $270 resistance including a sell wall that's been growing all morning:
Edit: I went flat at $265.72 this morning and caught some gains from the overnight. Still thinking about STO -C280 9/22, -C295 9/29, and -C300 10/20 but waiting for a spike to the $270 area, or higher if TSLA drills through, to sell them. But I may also miss the chance if we never spike.
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Not much has changed. Nothing more bearish or bullish has developed this week. So I don't think I should do anything drastic yet. 280Cs should be fine. October no.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Easiest day trade-day ever. I Buy shares @ 265.50 sell @ 268.00, rinse and repeat (plus sell any calls Friday @268 and buy back @ 265.50
But before 14:00 : close all positions (or take a bet on humongous intrestrate hike?). I guess we can make just one more ride toward 265.50, so did write some calls again.
[Edit] P.S. Got this idea by just looking at option walls for Friday and assuming that nobody will take risks now already to burn their fingers on anything outside option-walls. That will change of course, because nobody knows what the Fed will do and to complicate things does not have clue about what really is priced in already, so it can become a crazy hour.. As I write this PS (and edit) somebody is shaking up the bed already by probably messing op my third trade.[/Edit]
But before 14:00 : close all positions (or take a bet on humongous intrestrate hike?). I guess we can make just one more ride toward 265.50, so did write some calls again.
[Edit] P.S. Got this idea by just looking at option walls for Friday and assuming that nobody will take risks now already to burn their fingers on anything outside option-walls. That will change of course, because nobody knows what the Fed will do and to complicate things does not have clue about what really is priced in already, so it can become a crazy hour.. As I write this PS (and edit) somebody is shaking up the bed already by probably messing op my third trade.[/Edit]
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SpeedyEddy
Active Member
just in time I bought back the shares I had dumped for the last round down. (only missing a few dimes) Still being short (-C275 for Friday) maybe to roll them later. Has anybody any clue on the origin of this sudden Tesla-only-jump?
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Rivn is up a similiar amount, same with Generac. Perhaps something in the green/EV space?
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