Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

QTA levels for today

Wednesday Range High: $270.88
Wednesday Range Low: $261.72

TSLA so far rejected same place as yesterday:

 

[thenewguy1979]

made my bet 61x 200p exp 11-3. initial seed money that i rolled over from 12 x 200p exp 10-27 2 weeks ago. was trading on the up and down. showed how cheap puts gotten.

 

[thenewguy1979]

my decision is seeing index so hot this might be the last bounce before earning. also the green candles are not as strong as yesterday. showed potential wavering of strength. November 3rd should allow 3 weeks of downturn. Maybe not to 200 but the goal is to get out when thick in the weed. doggy sense.

 

[Max Plaid]

What odd market reaction, is this just a bull-trap being set??

I'm waiting for a dip to resell some puts, no rush though...

 

[thenewguy1979]

perhaps so....market been trending on upside lately. even on bad news but that may slowly be changing. They are making u turn after premarket very slowly

 

[thenewguy1979]

there you go guys. Market is reacting to ppi now. Get ready to roll out your plan. Have fun and good luck for all!!!

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I still see us bobbing around between 255 and 275 until earnings, so I opened 8 x short strangle p240 and c292.5 for next week. Netted $4.00. Also sold 2 more c292.5 for $2.00. All secured by cash or shares.

 

[elasalle]

Max Pain moved from 255 to 260

Past few mths I was tracking, CPI came in before PPI .... We have CPI tomorrow and market waiting for that ....
treasuries still red ..

 

[Max Plaid]

I'm eyeing-up -260 straddles for next week, looks like they'll pay around $20 which would make for a nice IV Crush - and I'm OK in rolling either side

Edit: Actually all the action is at 265, not 260...

 

[thenewguy1979]

I'm eyeing-up -260 straddles for next week, looks like they'll pay around $20 which would make for a nice IV Crush - and I'm OK in rolling either side

Edit: Actually all the action is at 265, not 260...

Ballzy

 

[elasalle]

Added back Jan 25 270 calls.

Limiting Factor had mentioned this a while back as well ... feeling optimistic (as usual ). The lines in Kato Rd are also supposed to get an upgrade soon(Nov)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1712141348038488439

 

[adiggs]

Closed out my 240p for next week. 90%+ gains and I see nothing but risk from here.

I haven't yet seen the Israel / Hamas situation having an effect on the market. I see the possibility of bad things, or at least bigger and badder, happening in the middle east with this as the catalyst. I have no direct translation back to the stock market in general, and TSLA in particular, except that I'm going to be particularly cautious.

 

[thenewguy1979]

My doggy sense is telling me this is a big bull trap.

1. Tesla earning will be subpar for Q3
2. Even if 1.8million shipment is made who know how much the price cut will affect margin
3. Cybertruck even announced may just trigger a slight upside as mass shipment wont begin till 2024
4. Assumption is reception will be positive but who know till pricing and feature are announced

With Tesla holding the announcement to close to earning or at all is a potential red flag.

Long term 2024 should be a good year but with the wars and all that's happening short term may not be that rosy as DI0003 predicted.

Again we are trying to make sense of the Casino. Just be vigilance and nimble. Stay away from the weeklies for now.

 

[Cherry Wine]

My doggy sense is telling me this is a big bull trap.

1. Tesla earning will be subpar for Q3
2. Even if 1.8million shipment is made who know how much the price cut will affect margin
3. Cybertruck even announced may just trigger a slight upside as mass shipment wont begin till 2024
4. Assumption is reception will be positive but who know till pricing and feature are announced

With Tesla holding the announcement to close to earning or at all is a potential red flag.

Long term 2024 should be a good year but with the wars and all that's happening short term may not be that rosy as DI0003 predicted.

Again we are trying to make sense of the Casino. Just be vigilance and nimble. Stay away from the weeklies for now.

I think CT announcement is pretty priced in at this point. I actually think some of this week's action was fueled by speculation over the imminent announcement of a delivery event, which is starting to look more like a mid-to-late Q4 thing. No one is expecting an amazing earnings - EPS estimates are being revised slightly down going into next week's call. So what else was there to fuel this week's bullish action? Macro sentiment, I suppose?

I remain highly defensive going into next week, still holding:

20x 10/13 -c270s (avg. price: $2.46 / current price $1.10) - may look to close half of these by EOD today.
10x 10/27 +p200s (avg. price: $1.51 / current price $0.35) - sitting on substantial losses on these. Looking to roll to 11/17 or later if stock price breaches $270.
40x 11/17 +p200s (avg. price: $2.12 / current price $1.33) - moderate losses on this position, which was worth $6.00 per share at one point.

On the chart I'm looking at the same thing everyone else is, I think - hard to see us breaking out of this pattern in advance of earnings, but something is going to give at earnings.

I am hoping to close my 10/13 -c270s for pennies and open a new position at 12/15 $330 or something similar to capture IV going into earnings. I feel comfortable with that strike to be able to manage my way out of a positive surprise from earnings, and that's a happier problem than dealing with the opposite.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Went beyond defensive, selling most shares and increasing all (thus)naked short positions, arguments were the same as immediately above posted ones, more and more evidence incoming of a very big threat of more than one major disrupting events at the same time, I called as perfect storm yesterday. A see of black swans might be below the clouds that we still fly above. PLTR will be safe I guess. Sofi maybe. Novo Nordisk is a new find, that I maybe bought too early if there is a see of black swans. Doubled down on short NVDA.

 

[juanmedina]

Went beyond defensive, selling most shares and increasing all (thus)naked short positions, arguments were the same as immediately above posted ones, more and more evidence incoming of a very big threat of more than one major disrupting events at the same time, I called as perfect storm yesterday. A see of black swans might be below the clouds that we still fly above. PLTR will be safe I guess. Sofi maybe. Novo Nordisk is a new find, that I maybe bought too early if there is a see of black swans. Doubled down on short NVDA.

I want to lose my shares at $270 but it doesn't seem like it is going to happen by Friday. We are still a week from ER and I think we will get another pump. It would be really funny if the stock goes up after ER and we are all wrong again.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Closed out my 240p for next week. 90%+ gains and I see nothing but risk from here.

I haven't yet seen the Israel / Hamas situation having an effect on the market. I see the possibility of bad things, or at least bigger and badder, happening in the middle east with this as the catalyst. I have no direct translation back to the stock market in general, and TSLA in particular, except that I'm going to be particularly cautious.

Smart.
As usual I am not making big bets as we have earnings next week. If I do, it will be deep out of money and/or much smaller in quantity of contracts.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I want to lose my shares at $270 but it doesn't seem like it is going to happen by Friday. We are still a week from ER and I think we will get another pump. It would be really funny if the stock goes up after ER and we are all wrong again.

I think there's enough different viewpoints that we won't ALL be wrong.

I've got -235p/-270c for next week. It's a wide enough spread that I think it'll do fine. and if the stock runs on me after earnings, at least 270 was a price that I'm willing to let the shares go at.

 

[adiggs]

I want to lose my shares at $270 but it doesn't seem like it is going to happen by Friday. We are still a week from ER and I think we will get another pump. It would be really funny if the stock goes up after ER and we are all wrong again.

Something I've learned - if you actually want to sell shares at some price and that price is available, then just sell the shares rather than trying to earn the call premium from selling cc.

Awhile back I wanted to sell some shares, but sold cc instead. I chose the same week and went about $30 ITM to make sure I got them sold. That week the shares fell below my strike. I got a HUGE cc premium - like $48, and now $200 later, I still haven't sold the shares. That's why when I recently decided to sell some shares and leaps, I just sold them rather than trying to get some cc premium as well.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Unless CPI is cool or some good macro news. It should not pump before earning. It currently weaker then macro now. But again Im just a small dog trying to play with the big boy