Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[dl003]

The bearish divergence cannot be more clear here.

2h more hours left in the day. Watch volume, if it's higher than yesterday and we close below the opening price, be careful.

 

[elasalle]

Sold CC's against personal shares .. Dec 15 320 for 0.20c each

If CT sell the rumor occurs, will reenter some calls for next week China number bump

 

[EVNow]

I've yet to roll 12/1 -c250 , would rather not , trying to make sense of what is going on. SHould I take the move now that the SP has come down some or wait it out? What I am most puzzled by is what to expect next week. Meaning, will the roll have a snowball effect?

Nothing we all don't already know. Continued call interest and loss of above and below 247.5 ... put call ratio .92 , highest call wall at c245, c250, puts even at 1/3 interest of those two peak, p235, p240

I've 260 CCs for Friday that I'll probably roll tomorrow - just to derisk. I also have 210 puts - which I'll buy back when it gets to 1 cent

Just not sure what would be a good strike to roll to for next week - considering strong resistance in 260s. May be I'll just buy back the CC tomorrow and open on Friday after looking at the CT reaction ... currently trading around the price I sold at.

 

[Jim Holder]

I think it's safe to err on the side of caution, on the premise that everything will go just as expected.
At least a big pull back in the next 2 weeks is what I'm expected, but a big pull back can always morph into something much more sinister.

Is this what you have in mind for pullback:

Big pullback: $220’s
Sinster pullback: $190’s
And maybe back up 2nd half of December

 

[dl003]

Is this what you have in mind for pullback:

Big pullback: $220’s
Sinster pullback: $190’s
And maybe back up 2nd half of December

the sinister scenario is a 3rd leg down to 170-180 by end of February. Red arrow scenario.

 

[BornToFly]

A friend of mine sent me this image. If it is real, we are definitely getting a sell off tomorrow. I'm going to look into buying Puts now....

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

A friend of mine sent me this image. If it is real, we are definitely getting a sell off tomorrow. I'm going to look into buying Puts now....

View attachment 994743

It's originally from MKHD, so I'd believe it. It's also at about a 90% SOC, so ~290miles predicted range (~300 EPA, which would be inline with original announcement).

 

[BornToFly]

Bought 100X Dec. 15 +225/-220 spread for 0.65 based on pic I posted above.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Bought 100X Dec. 15 +225/-220 spread for 0.65 based on pic I posted above.

So would this become profitable as long as TSLA drops? Or does it have to actually reach below $224.35 by Dec 15 to be profitable? And if SP doesn't drop much (or drops slowly), then the position would simply bleed out to nothing right?

 

[Jim Holder]

So would this become profitable as long as TSLA drops? Or does it have to actually reach below $224.35 by Dec 15 to be profitable? And if SP doesn't drop much (or drops slowly), then the position would simply bleed out to nothing right?

Here's how it looks (mine is 25 contracts):

TSLA Dec 8th 220/225 Bear Put Spread (25) | OptionStrat

View my options strategy on OptionStrat

optionstrat.com

 

[elasalle]

Bought 100X Dec. 15 +225/-220 spread for 0.65 based on pic I posted above.

We should get multiple range, battery pack and Cost $$right? .. like Standard, Long ...

Standard will be less range and more affordable, but I think initially they will come with the premium versions ...

if they can pin who leaked the pic, his invitation might be cancelled for tomorrow ...

 

[Jim Holder]

Dl003 algo...engaged:

 

[ninpb]

Bought 100X Dec. 15 +225/-220 spread for 0.65 based on pic I posted above.

The news already drafted their negative articles on undelivered CT promises with just the range and price left blank until announced tomorrow.

 

[Cherry Wine]

The news already drafted their negative articles on undelivered CT promises with just the range and price left blank until announced tomorrow.

Hedge funds are waiting to short and create the stench of fear, amplified by said articles...

 

[EnzoXYZ]

I can use a sell off tomorrow & Friday as I have a bunch of CCs that are 250+ and I do need these shares back that was called away over the weekend.
300 mile range CT would be super disappointing as I would expect nothing less than 400 for a truck. Hopefully beast mode are 400+.

 

[dl003]

I can use a sell off tomorrow & Friday as I have a bunch of CCs that are 250+ and I do need these shares back that was called away over the weekend.
300 mile range CT would be super disappointing as I would expect nothing less than 400 for a truck. Hopefully beast mode are 400+.

123 kwh and 300 miles seem about right.
Lucid air with 133 kwh under a lighter car can only go 422 miles.

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Here's how it looks (mine is 25 contracts):

TSLA Dec 8th 220/225 Bear Put Spread (25) | OptionStrat

View my options strategy on OptionStrat

optionstrat.com

View attachment 994758

Am I reading this right? By Friday, if SP drops off a STN (down to $239), then profits are $973 per spread?!?!

 

[Jim Holder]

Am I reading this right? By Friday, if SP drops off a STN (down to $239), then profits are $973 per spread?!?!

The profits shown are for 25 contracts.

As an aside, not sure why I didn't just buy straight puts (without the -C225 leg) since the sold leg eats up lots of the gains and is like trying to run a race while carrying a sack of bricks. I guess it protects from a surprise upside (like yesterday) and helps with cost, but not sure I should have added that leg after we saw the reject at 252 today and bearish divergence.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

the sinister scenario is a 3rd leg down to 170-180 by end of February. Red arrow scenario.

Important sidenote to that I wish to make today:
I just was following daylies back in time and because I have MA's 20, 50, 200 and 365 rolling something scrolling across has struck me.
Since 2015 (before that the stock in % moved a lot but not in dollars)
ALWAYS when these MA's converged within a few dollars of each other a huge, merely uninterrupted, drop or rise has followed (no later than three days after optimum in convergence (that will be today or later in this week almost surely if you see where they lay now. The range between lowest (365 MA) and highest (50 MA) is now about 13 dollars.)) We have time to react but it is of extreme importance that you do not bet against this move if history repeats, because it was always between +212% and - 64% so you will run out of options if it repeats once more.
I have the only 4 (so extreme seldom occurrence) times the convergence was comparably close (at the date it can be measured at the narrowest!!):
2018/07/27 (first a dip compensated and leading to a net) 28% rise in 7 days
2019/01/03 a 44% drop in about 3 months)
2019/10/19 a 212% rise in just over 3 months
and we all remember the last one very well
2022/9/29 a 64% drop in just over 3 months
The MA's at the moment are the dotted lines below which I have emphasized a bit

My theory is that there is always a force that wil move these lines apart, because traders ALWAYS have other interests than HODL-ers and the than banks an other than institutional and hedgers vice versa!! so convergence can not hold for long because of these conflicts. So something short term wil diverge and that is as we know terrain of HEDGERS or that of (BIG!!) traders. Hence the longer than expected trendbreak after convergence!!!!!!
This was a very important find WITH a logical explanation to me. So if I see divergence developing the next days I will know what to
do.
[IMPORTANT EDIT!!] IN ALL CASES AFTER THE BIG MOVE IT FLIPPED ABRUPT AND DECISIVE which is logical as well, because the short-thermers will overdo it and the others then take their moment and step out (or in), the HODL-ers and Institutionals will BUY (after a drop) or SELL (after a delusional rise) [/Edit]