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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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May be I'll just buy back the CC tomorrow and open on Friday after looking at the CT reaction ... currently trading around the price I sold at.
Thanks for this perspective, I like it a lot. While my 250s are not at what I sold them for, buy back is safer and certain.

EDIT: Bought back for .10 debit , no sweat, will sleep and reposition Thursday/Friday. Also, I've not rolled the -p220/+p225 debit spread to next week, same strike. Seems 50/50 either way, leaning towards down more than up, just how quick in either direction is the question.
 
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I think is just silly that the stock will go down because the range is lower than expected which I highly doubt it. Here is my buddies Rivian's R1S:

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The EPA numbers will be higher. I think this just might be an early sell the news event...
 
I think is just silly that the stock will go down because the range is lower than expected which I highly doubt it. Here is my buddies Rivian's R1S:

View attachment 994791

The EPA numbers will be higher. I think this just might be an early sell the news event...

I think the point is - its all about actuals vs expectations. Range (and to me the range vs capacity), price, features ... all play into this. Not to forget Elon's tone and future promises / announcements. I just hope he won't be as bad as he was at the Semi event.
 
So would this become profitable as long as TSLA drops? Or does it have to actually reach below $224.35 by Dec 15 to be profitable? And if SP doesn't drop much (or drops slowly), then the position would simply bleed out to nothing right?
It is already profitable because the SP has dropped a little since I opened it. It will be most profitable at SP under 220 in two weeks. If the SP rises, and doesn't look like it will fall, I will close it out for a small loss.
 
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Right at the death, STO 10x 12/1 -p245 @$4.6 -> BTC 3x 12/1 -c230 @$14.75

Still 32x -c230's to get dispose of, maybe the SP comes back down to them, maybe not, I assume it won't until it does and act accordingly

Decided to hold the 100x 12/8 -c260's I sold earlier, don't really care if the SP goes up there, can also sell the underlying for some profits too
 
Thanks for your opinion. So if we break 252 tomorrow, making a new local high, without RSI reaching a new high, that would confirm the suspicion of a drop after the new high?
The 4H is firmly pointing down, no question there. Unless we go up to like 265 tomorrow and hold, the 4H divergence is going to hold it down.
The question is whether the Daily is going to come into play. See above, we need 260+ and hold tomorrow or I suspect the new peak will quickly get sold into. Look at the daily RSI. Unless this is a bona fide bull run, we're at that resistance on the RSI. Every dead cat bounce has terminated at this level of daily RSI. Today speaks volume, but tomorrow will decide.
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Wicked Stocks update:

Today's trading and closing price threw cold water on the rally. Need over $250.29 to see more upside. Opening or trading below $242.84 can see $238.73 intraday which may contain daily selling pressure. A close below that can yield $231.92 and below.

Over $242.84=$250.29 || =$259.97=265.58
Below $242.84=238.73=231.92 || =226=208.19


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Yes - if the strike is above cost basis, its not a loss. Besides you can keep rolling (as I did for a quarter this year).

As to @BornToFly comment, essentially you have two ways to make money on options
- Bet on a direction
- Bet on limited change

"Be the house" implies the second. Betting on direction is just trading.
Generally people should be betting a small % of their capital on trades (like 1%) - but "be the house" can be a larger % of capital if the delta is low.

Thanks EVNOW - one of the best post I read today. Those directional bet are exhausting as you're basically gambling with 50/50 chance of winning. No matter how good the conviction are.

I'm quitting the formal and doing more of the latter moving forwards. Else I'm never going to be peeing straight.....