Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[adiggs]

EW is too hard to get for me.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07B4XLRPV/ref=kinw_myk_ro_title

This is the book on Elliot Waves that has helped make the ideas and patterns start to make sense for me. Kindle Unlimited or $3 or so - its 100 pages and short / easy enough to read that I was able to just read it through without trying to focus on each individual idea as it came up and make sure I understood it before I moved to the next.

My plan was, and is, to read it at least 1 more time with a similar mindset. I know there are a lot more details and nuances, but this is easily enough to get past that initial "omg - so many rules and patterns and guides and overwhelm!". At least it has been for me.


So read it once, fast, for an overview. Read it at least once more time for a more detailed understanding.

 

[dl003]

TSLA registered an overbought reading on the 2h RSI. Will top today's high soon-ish.

 

[dl003]

Team - whatever you do keep the below date in minds.

I plan to close all my open Contracts (TSLA -QQQ - QPY) before ER. Riding the hype wagon but don't want to risk it into ER.

Rather late to catch the ride then crash and burn guessing the direction.

I repeat = Be extremely cautious of that black leather jacket....

View attachment 1019040

It's not as big a day for me. I already have some idea what the market and TSLA are going to do for the next 4 weeks.

EDIT: the ER not going to blow the market up or crash it. Unless SPY can take out 503.6, I expect it to grind down to 483 by end of March before curling up again.

 

[Jim Holder]

I already have some idea what the market and TSLA are going to do for the next 4 weeks.

 

[phantasms]

Rolled my $200c out a month. I was ok getting out of all my shares. But then I figured rolling out the month would net me about 4.5% on my exit amount in a month. So, above or below 200 I’m all good. If we’re in the same range maybe I’ll roll again. I don’t care what any of the talking heads say, I don’t see the market not having a major correction from all this Covid insanity at some point.

 

[elasalle]

Rolled my $200c out a month. I was ok getting out of all my shares. But then I figured rolling out the month would net me about 4.5% on my exit amount in a month. So, above or below 200 I’m all good. If we’re in the same range maybe I’ll roll again. I don’t care what any of the talking heads say, I don’t see the market not having a major correction from all this Covid insanity at some point.

covid

 

[Jim Holder]

Question:

If we don’t hold $205-$210 and it seems TSLA will try for a rotation down say to $180-$175, what’s the best way to capture about $18k gains in short puts instead of watching them evaporate?

I have:
15x -P280 1/2025, around $15k gains
10x -P300 6/2025, around $11k gains

To flip to short calls seems I’ll need a ton of them and I have a bunch already used for other strikes >$220-$230 coming off in 3-5 weeks.

Any suggestions how to take advantage of a retracement down?

Thanks in advance

 

[dl003]

Question:

If we don’t hold $205-$210 and it seems TSLA will try for a rotation down say to $180-$175, what’s the best way to capture about $18k gains in short puts instead of watching them evaporate?

I have:
15x -P280 1/2025, around $15k gains
10x -P300 6/2025, around $11k gains

To flip to short calls seems I’ll need a ton of them and I have a bunch already used for other strikes >$220-$230 coming off in 3-5 weeks.

Any suggestions how to take advantage of a retracement down?

Thanks in advance

This might sound radical and even dangerous, but hear me out. How about just take the profit now?

 

[Jim Holder]

This might sound radical and even dangerous, but hear me out. How about just take the profit now?

I can but it’ll then use about $125k on margin which I’m loathe to do in this environment.

Edit: Also if we’re about to launch one would think it’s usually the time to sell puts and not exit/buy to close sold puts. Tough call really.

 

[Max Plaid]

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07B4XLRPV/ref=kinw_myk_ro_title

This is the book on Elliot Waves that has helped make the ideas and patterns start to make sense for me. Kindle Unlimited or $3 or so - its 100 pages and short / easy enough to read that I was able to just read it through without trying to focus on each individual idea as it came up and make sure I understood it before I moved to the next.

My plan was, and is, to read it at least 1 more time with a similar mindset. I know there are a lot more details and nuances, but this is easily enough to get past that initial "omg - so many rules and patterns and guides and overwhelm!". At least it has been for me.


So read it once, fast, for an overview. Read it at least once more time for a more detailed understanding.

Dumb question... also for @dl003 - this EW theory is essentially algorithmic, right, with a little bit of individual interpretation/voodoo thrown in - I see DL debating whether it's wave 3 or wave 4, etc. so it's not an exact science

But nevertheless, shouldn't here be readily available software to show all the potential permutations, no need to read a book??

As for TSLA today, I missed the first dip this morning and hadn't yet worked out the trades/limit orders I wanted, then set a BTO on 40x 2/23 -p200 @$6.1 & BTC 10x 3/1 -c175 @$24, a straight swap - would have triggered in the first dip, but every dip since then hasn't quite made it, needs mid to low $197's before close...

Also decided better to roll the 100x c185's, but every time a dip came I wasn't at my computer, meh!

 

[Max Plaid]

This might sound radical and even dangerous, but hear me out. How about just take the profit now?

50% profit is better than no profit, 10% profit is better than no profit, zero profit is better than booking a loss...

Advice!

 

[Jim Holder]

50% profit is better than no profit, 10% profit is better than no profit, zero profit is better than booking a loss...

Advice!

Yes! The question was rather than a straight “buy to close” for profit what could be paired with it to benefit from a ride down/chop?

And if it’s stupid to BTC now if we might launch.

 

[dl003]

Dumb question... also for @dl003 - this EW theory is essentially algorithmic, right, with a little bit of individual interpretation/voodoo thrown in - I see DL debating whether it's wave 3 or wave 4, etc. so it's not an exact science

But nevertheless, shouldn't here be readily available software to show all the potential permutations, no need to read a book??

As for TSLA today, I missed the first dip this morning and hadn't yet worked out the trades/limit orders I wanted, then set a BTO on 40x 2/23 -p200 @$6.1 & BTC 10x 3/1 -c175 @$24, a straight swap - would have triggered in the first dip, but every dip since then hasn't quite made it, needs mid to low $197's before close...

Also decided better to roll the 100x c185's, but every time a dip came I wasn't at my computer, meh!

No, I wouldn't call it algorithmic as that would imply, correct me if I'm wrong, an intentional design. Wave theory is the result of observing price behavior as a reflection of the collective sentiment of market participants. For example, Ralph Nelson Elliott found that, as a group, we like to buy a stock after it has retraced 0.381x from a peak. There's no way to explain this except, and this is the voodoo sounding part, we as humans are influenced by the same biology. Our synapses fire at more or less the same rate. We're made from the same atoms. Much like countless phenomenon observed in nature to display traits that follow the same fib ratios, we as a group behave the same way when it comes to numbers. We as a group decide the fair price, which often correlates to a fib level, without even knowing it!

Since it's not an algorithm, there's nobody who can say with authority their count is the way it should be counted. That's why I don't lead with EW. EW is best combined with other indicators and best utilized as a visualization of the collective sentiment. I didn't count 175 as end of wave 5 just because I felt like it. I was looking for a bullish divergence - reliable and a reclaim of 10 SMA - also reliable, behaviors of wave 5 in TSLA. Both of these conditions show a massive exhaustion of downward momentum and an inability to keep the SP under the fast moving average, signaling a reversal. It did not manifest before 175. It dropped $90 and only at 175 did the stock show some life. So I called it wave 5, the last wave of a crash.

 

[BornToFly]

The 100X 205CC I had sold this morning for .34 just closed for .02.

 

[Jim Holder]

The 100X 205CC I had sold this morning for .34 just closed for .02.

Good for you! That was a bit daring

 

[AM21]

Hi everyone,

Thanks to all the gurus here. I’m been learning a lot from the knowledgeable community here and slowly improving my understanding of options trading.

I have a question related to the tax implications for my after-tax trading account in the US, primarily used for TSLA and its options. Under the wash sale rule, capital losses from one trade get added to the cost basis of new TSLA-related acquisitions. However, I actively trade and rarely have a 30-day window without any TSLA-related activity.

Considering this, I'm curious: what strategies do other traders use to eventually realize these capital losses for tax purposes? Any insights or advice would be highly appreciated!

 

[Max Plaid]

No, I wouldn't call it algorithmic as that would imply, correct me if I'm wrong, an intentional design. Wave theory is the result of observing price behavior as a reflection of the collective sentiment of market participants. For example, Ralph Nelson Elliott found that, as a group, we like to buy a stock after it has retraced 0.381x from a peak. There's no way to explain this except, and this is the voodoo sounding part, we as humans are influenced by the same biology. Our synapses fire at more or less the same rate. We're made from the same atoms. Much like countless phenomenon observed in nature to display traits that follow the same fib ratios, we as a group behave the same way when it comes to numbers. We as a group decide the fair price, which often correlates to a fib level, without even knowing it!

Since it's not an algorithm, there's nobody who can say with authority their count is the way it should be counted. That's why I don't lead with EW. EW is best combined with other indicators and best utilized as a visualization of the collective sentiment. I didn't count 175 as end of wave 5 just because I felt like it. I was looking for a bullish divergence - reliable and a reclaim of 10 SMA - also reliable, behaviors of wave 5 in TSLA. Both of these conditions show a massive exhaustion of downward momentum and an inability to keep the SP under the fast moving average, signaling a reversal. It did not manifest before 175. It dropped $90 and only at 175 did the stock showed some life. So I called it wave 5, the last wave of a crash.

This makes a lot of sense, thanks!

 

[dl003]

I can but it’ll then use about $125k on margin which I’m loathe to do in this environment.

Edit: Also if we’re about to launch one would think it’s usually the time to sell puts and not exit/buy to close sold puts. Tough call really.

To make money you need to stay alive first. If you feel uneasy about a position, you should take care of it and derisk while you still can.

 

[Max Plaid]

Another crazy week on TSLA! It's beer-o'clock in Europe, cheers!!

 

[Jim Holder]

To make money you need to stay alive first. If you feel uneasy about a position, you should take care of it and derisk while you still can.

I'm not worried about the position, it can survive down to $165 or so. Even then I could buy some **SUGAR** puts and avoid a maintenance call.

I guess my questions are:

1) Is it good practice to close a short put position now when it appears we are making a recovery [especially if we finished Wave 5 @$175 and are done with the drop] and the position can survive down to $165 or so. Only reason I’m thinking to BTC now is if we may top here and go down to $180-$175 again, draining the gains.

2) If choosing to buy to close now to capture the gains, is there anything to pair it with so it doesn't use margin to BTC and can also benefit from a ride down.