Great setup! I love the ticker in the speaker, they're great!
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Great setup! I love the ticker in the speaker, they're great!
Sometimes I put the Tickr on my wife's desk and say "if that stays green for a year I'll buy you a house..."
KEF LS50 Wireless II for the audiophiles... but they would know that already... KC62 sub-woofer under the desk...
Looks like $200 for close, eh?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Algorithmic generally means that a mathematical algorithm can solve it - so practically, we could create a computer program to come up with the same thing (or if a few possibilities exist, the computer program can spit them out). You are suggesting EW is much more subjective and possibly can't be programmed ?
We're not just "making a recovery". We're near the end of what is typically considered a reasonable recovery, considering where we were before the drop, why the drop happened, and where the drop took us. There are different stages to this bounce, periods of directional moves separated by basing periods. Right now I'd say that we're in the 2nd basing before what probably is going to be the last push before a sizeable correction. So you need to look at the road you've travelled vs the road ahead. We've gone $25 with about $10 more ahead of us. Will you risk the $25 profit on your entire position for the promise of the last $10? Don't try to milk the last drop is all I'm saying. That's just my read of the chart anyway. I can be wrong.
I never sell at a loss and then rebuy the same options contract.
The Premium for 200 strike Calls for today are VERY different than 200 strike Calls for July, so they are very different things (if they were the same, the premium would be the same). So wash sale rules don't apply. Fidelity figures all that stuff out for me and I get tax forms from them.
Edit: The only time it matters is if you "take a loss" at the end of December with a new position, and then close that position before the end of January, then you pull it to the following year.
Update - just finished the 2nd reading. The tail end 1/3rd or 1/4th of the book is about translating the wave identification and patterns from the front chunk of the book into a trading system. I had forgotten that part from the first reading - its a really good transition from reading a chart, and into a (not THE) decision making process for both entering and exiting trades. At least for me it pulls the concepts together.
Maybe I'll start the 3rd reading tonight
Thanks. Good stuff.
1) I take it then that now is not the time to sell new puts either since need to confirm over $206 for a new sustainable bullish leg. That might be time to sell short puts. If so, you’re right, now is likely time to BTC any short puts with gains and watch and perhaps re-sell them at the bottom of the upcoming correction, or sell them again if we pass and hold above $206. About right?
2) What do you have in mind for the sizable correction?
EWT all boils down to fib ratios. At the micro level, that part is as objective as can be. The problem is there are tens, if not hundreds of micro movements that make up movements of a higher degree that make up movements of an even higher degree. Since EW allows for a number of different fib relationships between different waves of the same degree, oftentimes we run into trouble, not knowing if a countertrend move is simply a "crease" within a larger move (A) or if it's part of a bigger countertrend move of the same degree as A. For example: the 2nd wave of an impulse typically retraces 0.381x to 0.618x of the 1st wave because the 1st wave is typically not caught on by market participants so the countertrend 2nd wave can go deep. However, in instances where the 1st wave is massive, as there was some news that came out and took everyone by surprise, the 2nd wave might retrace 0.15x only. Now we're going argue about whether the 1st wave is still going on and that 0.15x retracement is just part of the 1st wave, or if the 1st wave is over and that 0.15x countertrend move is the 2nd wave and now we're looking at the 3rd wave.
So "subjective" is not the word I'd use to describe it. EW is a tool but not a comprehensive tool that you can use for every job in every situation. Once you bring on other tools, then it'll become more useful. A computer program that tries to automate this tool by itself will not be reliable.
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Can retrace the entire run from 175.
your ticker on top of the speaker!
Me too... Actually I ordered one after seeing it (TickrMeter) in that photo, didn't know they existed!
Yeah, this is where the Ouija Board stuff comes into play... but DL's explanation upthread was logical, people follow trends, and I guess algos too, I think they just amplify similar movements, so then you get this "crowd psychology" thing going on - when it's stated like that I can buy-into the conceptUpdate - just finished the 2nd reading. The tail end 1/3rd or 1/4th of the book is about translating the wave identification and patterns from the front chunk of the book into a trading system. I had forgotten that part from the first reading - its a really good transition from reading a chart, and into a (not THE) decision making process for both entering and exiting trades. At least for me it pulls the concepts together.
Maybe I'll start the 3rd reading tonight
So for my 100X -200CC for next Friday. I decided to roll half of them to July 250 strike for $5.3 credit, which is .22/week. Not too bad, and if we are above 250 in July, many of my BPSs will be gone and life will be good.
TSLA held today despite the NASDAQ being down over the hot PPI. If macros recover next week I can see TSLA going higher. Then I will have 50X contracts left for Friday and 250X new contracts I can write to help dig those out.
TSLA held today despite the NASDAQ being down over the hot PPI. If macros recover next week I can see TSLA going higher. Then I will have 50X contracts left for Friday and 250X new contracts I can write to help dig those out.
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I would certainly say that (EW is not algorithmic). You could certainly apply your own logic, the larger EW logic, and write your own program!
EW provides patterns, and rules that help describe the patterns, but most of the time there are at least 2 possibilities for how things develop forward in time. EW can put some guard rails around that, that are more true than not, but (as I see it) its another form of pattern trading. For me - what I like about it is that its a longer pattern, and that enables a more detailed peer into how the future pattern is likely to develop. It also helps identify when things are muddy, and why, and therefore just sit off to the side for developments to fit into a recognizable pattern that is sufficiently distinct and reliable as to be tradeable.
And its well beyond aggregate metrics that attempt to reduce the current state of an issue to a single value. I.e. the IV% - it tells you what the current IV is, relative to a longer period (I think ttm), but it doesn't say anything about how we arrived at the current iv% (using that as a made up example).
So it’s quantification of human psychology (markets) which is always interesting.
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Decided to close out for pennies when SP spiked at 2:30, and then of course SP immediately dumped $2 into safe territory. Oh well, no worries, was still below btc cost of the half I did on Wednesday. Will digest over the weekend and sell next week taking account of the last few days’ rise.
For those interested: TickrMeter: Physical Stock Tickers on your desk
Was a Shark Tank success in Denmark and the dude that created the device has some serious physical disabilities, but clearly a sharp mind!
So, in the final 30 minutes:
- rolled 100x 3/1 -c185 -> 9/20 -c240 (net -20c)
- STO 60x 3/23 -p200 -> BTC 10x 3/1 -c185 -> the trade here, at the low of the day was 40x for 10x, but missed it...
And all that after three "good" beers...
Was a Shark Tank success in Denmark and the dude that created the device has some serious physical disabilities, but clearly a sharp mind!
So, in the final 30 minutes:
- rolled 100x 3/1 -c185 -> 9/20 -c240 (net -20c)
- STO 60x 3/23 -p200 -> BTC 10x 3/1 -c185 -> the trade here, at the low of the day was 40x for 10x, but missed it...
And all that after three "good" beers...
Sometimes the fib levels can feel somewhat intuitive. For example: if a stock is strong and you want to buy the pullback, you probably wanna buy before it hits the 50% mark as you feel like 50% is what a "normal" stock should retrace to but this one is "strong" so maybe you do it at 40%, just enough to get yourself a sizeable discount without having to compete with all other plebs who are foolishly waiting for it just 10% lower. And then a few little tiny switches in your brain go off in mysterious ways and then you end up buying at 38.1% instead of 40%.
Thank you (I don't see a like button for other people's posts). I read that the wash sale rule applies to options with different strike dates of the same underlying stock (i.e., TSLA). If that is the case, will the cost basis of my most recently purchased TSLA related security be adjusted up and I can only realize the capital losses if I stop trading for a full 30 days?
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