Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

Believe it or not, what's happened the last 10 days and what's going to happen later today and tomorrow have been predicted 10 days ago.

Why do I even bother typing these?

In the moment our emotions seek confirmation. You have an excellent eye so you get bugged for confirming what we may be seeing

Please don’t take it personal.

Can you tell us if you’re selling into this and we may see $190-$195’ish again before $205 in this sequence or hang tight for more?

I’m asking because I BTC some short puts for profit at $201 and would like to re-STO if we’ll keep going up.

[Edit: Our posts crossed. Thanks for the update!]

 

[thenewguy1979]

Believe it or not, what's happened the last 10 days and what's going to happen later today and tomorrow have been predicted 10 days ago.

Why do I even bother typing these?

2hrs chart - not there at 201.3 yet

4hrs chart - RSI at 63. Need to be at 70

 

[Max Plaid]

Ballsy.

I sold some 210cc's for friday @ 0.94 (already underwater, they're at $1.00 right now) and I'm not feeling confident.

I already sold my 50x -c210's last week for $2.1, and just STO 50x 3/8 -c210 @$2.3 - too early it seems, but there you go

BTC 50x TSLA 3/1 -p190 @$1.45 (net +$2.65), might resell if it dips, otherwise looking at the same strike for 3/8, otherwise will add 10x -p200 to straddle with 10x -c200 I happen to have open

Plus BTC 10x NVDA 3/1 -p800 @$18.9 (net +$6.2) -> clawed back the money I lost on Friday's -p800 impulsive trade -> looking to resell -p775 or -p780's on a dip

Most EV stocks up, even Lucid and Riven, so perhaps a bit of rotation ongoing - didn't we see the same last week before it reversed?

 

[Yoona]

76% in 3.5 hrs, shutdown time

STO 1:36pm Fri

View attachment 1022084

don't be greedy: doing a lot of tiny (safe) trades is better than small number of large (risky) trades

View attachment 1022090

View attachment 1022086

closing another one; 6Δ Fri afternoon became 16Δ this morning at MMD (i don't like it, too close for comfort)

small steps will win the race

 

[dl003]

I sold 3/28 200C's for $11 on my extra long position. Cost basis on these is $207.
My long term shares I'll wait for the close.

 

[Jim Holder]

I sold 3/28 200C's for $11 on my extra long position. Cost basis on these is $207.

Because counting on reversion to ~$195 area into P&D first week of April as markets may de-risk, correct?

 

[Max Plaid]

BREAKING: Pelosi bought 1.5 Million worth of TSLA calls FWIW

Are you sure? Only reference I find is this Tweet and the guy was "joking" (har-fkin-har)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762151627283132739

 

[Jim Holder]

Are you sure? Only reference I find is this Tweet and the guy was "joking" (har-fkin-har)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762151627283132739

Yup, seems to be false. I saw it on X earlier. Seems that guy made a joke and everyone took it seriously

 

[dl003]

Just FYI, given the tenacity of the drop after ER, I've been modeling this bounce after the June 2022 bounce. During that bounce, the 4h RSI didn't touch 70 until after Q2 ER. Today's lack of strength also made me skittish. The 0.236 fib also acted as magnet back then. 175 is still bottom.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Just FYI, given the tenacity of the drop after ER, I've been modeling this bounce off of the June 2022 bounce. During that bounce, the 4h RSI didn't touch 70 until after Q2 ER. Today's lack of strength also made me skittish. The 0.236 fib also acted as magnet back then. 175 is still bottom.
View attachment 1022177

Seem like we ran out of Steam. Cannot hit 201.

SPY drop doesn't help either.....

 

[dl003]

Seem like we ran out of Steam. Cannot hit 201.

SPY drop doesn't help either.....

Look at LCID and RIVN and PANW. You'll see that the bounce today has more to do with oversold stocks getting some love / covering and less to do with SPY.

 

[MikeC]

Holding -c190/195/197.50 that I’ve been rolling for a few weeks. I’m bracing for a strong close and open tomorrow because volume is back up. But maybe then we’ll get another end of week fade?

 

[Jim Holder]

@dl003 When you say you want to watch action the close, can you share what time and action you begin observing?

 

[dl003]

@dl003 When you say you want to watch action the close, can you share what time and action you begin observing?

just general PA. It doesn't look strong enough to my liking. So sold 215C for 3/8.

 

[BornToFly]

Per Yoona's data, close to 50% chance of Red or Green tomorrow after a Green Monday. I'm tempted to sell 215CCs for Friday right now, but I will wait until tomorrow.

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[Max Plaid]

OK, did a little repositioning into close to close out some of my 30x TSLA 3/1 -c175's as the extrinsic has all but gone, and although I see very low risk of assignment, I don't see much point waiting until later in the week either, yes, maybe the SP drops and get a better roll, may it doesn't, so just roll them now and be done with it for a few weeks

So doubled my -c200's for the week, added puts to straddle, then rolled the -c175's out two weeks and reduced the number of contracts to 23x, break-even on cash

BTC 30x TSLA 3/1 -c175 @$24.8 (net -$9.7)
STO 23x TSLA 3/15 -c175 @$26
STO 10x TSLA 3/1 -c200 @$4.1
STO 20x TSLA 3/1 -p200 @$4.3

Slowly chipping-away at them... you can guaranteee when I finally close them out, the SP will fill that gap at $143

 

[Jim Holder]

Cary from Wicked Stocks FTW again:

 

[thenewguy1979]

Per Yoona's data, close to 50% chance of Red or Green tomorrow after a Green Monday. I'm tempted to sell 215CCs for Friday right now, but I will wait until tomorrow.

50% chance of green or red? So could either go up or down?

You know I cannot peed straight and now you teasing me with such a forecast?

 

[Jim Holder]

TSLA quite green up to $220, I wonder how this will play out

3/1

Supports @Yoona's earlier post re TSLA chance of 3/1 $210-$220
Be careful writing ITM CC's