Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[thenewguy1979]

TSLA quite green up to $220, I wonder how this will play out

3/1

View attachment 1022247


Supports @Yoona's earlier post re TSLA chance of 3/1 $210-$220
Be careful writing ITM CC's

View attachment 1022252

Jim I thinks it's just folks piling in due to fake Pelosi news or trying to catch the bounce.

What the MP for 3/1 based on today stat?

 

[thenewguy1979]

 

[CHGolferJim]

Tempted to roll my 1Mar$205 and $215, but total btc cost is $6k, so gonna hold a day or two longer to assess odds these will expire.

 

[thenewguy1979]

We got some big data this week along with retails earnings.

Durable Good/ Consumer Confident - Tuesday AM
GDP - Wednesday
Core PCE - Thursday 8:30am

Anything can happen..........

NVDA did went to red today AH so did SPY/QQQ.

 

[MikeC]

TSLA quite green up to $220, I wonder how this will play out

3/1

View attachment 1022247


Supports @Yoona's earlier post re TSLA chance of 3/1 $210-$220
Be careful writing ITM CC's

View attachment 1022252

Wouldn’t this graph suggest it should go down to 190 based on max pain theory?

 

[Jim Holder]

Wouldn’t this graph suggest it should go down to 190 based on max pain theory?

I'd think so too, though there's so much green to the right that **may** hinder price moving down too much.

From a GEX perspective, latest (below) implies that if the market begins selling down tomorrow to re-test the breakout area, dealers will join the selling which will aid price in moving down toward $192.50 (this might be the MP move ).

Conversely, if the market is bullish tomorrow and bids the price up, then it shows that the dealers will join along in the buying (adding fuel) and they'll stop at $202.50 (small red bar). If market pushes over, it'll run more until $207.50 where dealers will start selling into the strength (the next red bars).

Would be interesting to see if @Yoona 's Vanna/GEX tool shows same/similar.

 

[Yoona]

I'd think so too, though there's so much green to the right that **may** hinder price moving down too much.

From a GEX perspective, latest (below) implies that if the market begins selling down tomorrow to re-test the breakout area, dealers will join the selling which will aid price in moving down toward $192.50 (this might be the MP move ).

Conversely, if the market is bullish tomorrow and bids the price up, then it shows that the dealers will join along in the buying (adding fuel) and they'll stop at $202.50 (small red bar). If market pushes over, it'll run more until $207.50 where dealers will start selling into the strength (the next red bars).

Would be interesting to see if @Yoona 's Vanna/GEX tool shows same/similar.

View attachment 1022275

190-210, chance of 220

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[BornToFly]

50% chance of green or red? So could either go up or down?

You know I cannot peed straight and now you teasing me with such a forecast?

Without Yoona's data, I would have said a Green Monday is usually followed by a Red Tuesday, but that is not the case.

Part of the rally may be due to the recent news from BYD saying that battery costs are going to be cut in half. Clearly margins for EVs are going to improve.

 

[BornToFly]

Great stuff from AJ. Rolling Puts to Jan 2026 should finally get them OTM if needed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762234365814145187

 

[juanmedina]

We are 5 weeks from P&D, we know Q1 is usually weak and Troy as of right has us missing the consensus. Are you guys planning on buying any protection?

Also, why Tesla cannot do something like this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762198338823155838

 

[Jim Holder]

Interesting observation:

Credit: Banana3stocks

 

[BornToFly]

We are 5 weeks from P&D, we know Q1 is usually weak and Troy as of right has us missing the consensus. Are you guys planning on buying any protection?

Also, why Tesla cannot do something like this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762198338823155838

What is Troy estimating? Not that I really care because he is often way off until all the data is in with 1-2 days left in the quarter.
Everything I've seen on X says that deliveries are very strong for a Q1 and will be a Q1 record.

 

[juanmedina]

What is Troy estimating? Not that I really care because he is often way off until all the data is in with 1-2 days left in the quarter.
Everything I've seen on X says that deliveries are very strong for a Q1 and will be a Q1 record.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1759407927130018135

 

[BornToFly]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1759407927130018135

So he is estimating that we crush last year's Q1 deliveries (422,875). Excellent.

Edit: His Cybertruck estimates for each quarter are a joke.

 

[Jim Holder]

For the EW crowd, here's SW's view on what to look for off a bottom for TSLA:

Wave (3) should be an ABC move, with A of (3) ideally targeting the $365 region (from OML to $160s). The challenge (from here especially) is that IF TSLA is starting the A, it can be either a-b-c (three wave segments) or i-ii-iii-iv-v (five wave segments), so we might not get a clean 5-up-3-down off a low for (2). A stronger reversal off OML to the $160s is still the most ideal and would be far more reliable as a bottom.


TSLA Macro View

TSLA Primary Analysis

A close above $206 shifts the odds of the 2/5/24 $175 low being ALL of (2) and confirms that was the bottom. Wave (3) should be an ABC move with A of (3) targeting the $300+ region.

 

[Patrick66]

Edit: His Cybertruck estimates for each quarter are a joke.

Yeah, it seems like we are hitting ~100/day CT production sporadically. I would have a hard time believing a CT estimate under 3,600 on the production side, although deliveries are a little trickier to guess at this point.

 

[Knightshade]

Yeah, it seems like we are hitting ~100/day CT production sporadically. I would have a hard time believing a CT estimate under 3,600 on the production side, although deliveries are a little trickier to guess at this point.

As of ~2 weeks ago DMV VIN data had CT production barely above 100 per week, so I think 100/day currently is...optimistic.

Same data shows Highland refresh in the US is also going really slowly in ramping.

Troy may well be overly pessimistic for the annual number by assuming Tesla will ramp slower going forward than they actually do- but for Q1 the more real-world VIN data he gets the lower his estimates have gotten and that's primarily data driven.

Contrast that with the #s AJ was suggesting a few posts up, with Tesla getting to 2.15 million annual deliveries for 2024 which seems... a challenging target at this point. Elon already said CT won't contribute meaningfully to the financials this year so say 50k CTs... do folks really think 3/Y sales will grow ANOTHER 300,000 units this year?

 

[Cherry Wine]

As of ~2 weeks ago DMV VIN data had CT production barely above 100 per week, so I think 100/day currently is...optimistic.

Same data shows Highland refresh in the US is also going really slowly in ramping.

There have been 100+ in the outbound lot several times over the last week or so.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1761651798861926457

 

[Knightshade]

There have been 100+ in the outbound lot several times over the last week or so.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1761651798861926457

Which tells us not much about production rate other than they've produced more than 156 total ever.... also "156 total, many in the outbound" doesn't seem the same thing as "over 100 in outbound"?

When they got to the only lot in the video that had car carriers in the picture and looked like the loading area it was almost entirely Model Ys...Starts around 4:50 in the video-- on the one side is Line A32 had one CT... Lines A25 and A26 each had one CT... A22 and A23 had another 3 total between them... A16 and A17 each had one CT... A10 had one and A1 had one for a total of... ten cybertrucks lined up to be loaded onto car carrier on that side...

On the other side of the lot (which you get to see around 7:10 into the video there's about a dozen NOT lined up for loading so unclear what state those are in, then actually lined up there's 11 total CTs in a sea of Model Ys.

So only 21 total CTs lined up to be loaded... plus let's count the 3 already on a truck in that second shot.... so 24....

Even if we count the dozen or so parked around the edges of the lot NOT lined for loading you're only at 36 total trucks.


Bit less than 100+. MOST of the CTs in that video were parked in a big lot clearly NOT intended for truck loading, so likely not yet finished vehicles (or vehicles needing rework or something).




They can't deliver cars without VINs -making the VIN data the nearest we can really get to ground truth on production.

Now, the <100 a week production cited was from ~2.5 weeks ago, it might've gone up since then, but since I don't pay for Troys Patreon I don't know the more recent #s-- but going from <100 week or >100 a day in 2.5 weeks does not seem realistic.