That guy is as tslaq as they come...
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
What do you deem ambiguous?Seems to matches Tesla’s ambiguous comments for little to no growth for 2024
Q4 call:
"In 2024, our volume growth will be, you know, lower, as we have said, because we're trying to focus the team on the launch of the next-generation vehicle."
Shareholder deck:
"In 2024, our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023, as our teams work on the launch of the next-generation vehicle at Gigafactory Texas. In 2024, the growth rate of deployments and revenue in our Energy Storage business should outpace the Automotive business."
Lower growth rate is different from low or no growth, especially when 2023 deliveries were 38% above 2022's.
This guy’s hypothetical is just so dumb it makes my head hurt
Asking to learn: Isn’t one of the very tenets of Elliot Wave theory adjusting counts based on what the market actually does, so in truth they’re not “wrong” but correcting course based on PA that developed the last couple weeks?
Thats mental gymnastic. Yes, you have to adjust count when the market goes against your prediction, but first you admit that you were wrong. If you are not wrong when the market goes against you, then what even is the point of TA? Maybe people are used to wishy washy TA but I hold myself to a much higher standardm
Last edited:
Growth will be lower as expected but how about margins? I assume lower since they cut prices both in China and the USA and the Cybertruck ramp is still costing Tesla a good amount.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
You don't seem to be clear on what Troy is calling out here--
March deliveries can be higher than either Jan or Feb (and likely WILL be)-- no cliff involved- and the total in Europe for Q1 will still be much lower than Q1 2023.
here's the relevant bit
So simple math (let's use 60/40 as easiest #s), if there's NO cliff at all and Tesla simply does what it has previously done in the post-wave world.
If Jan+Feb are ~60% of the full quarter post-wave, and March is ~40%, and we know Jan+Feb is about 45k combined, and should be about 60% of the TOTAL for Q1.
Meaning Q1 total should be about 75,000 cars-- with March being about 30,000 of them or about 40% of deliveries- just like the last couple quarters of month 3s have been in Europe post-wave.
This is WAY below the 94,242 delivered in Europe Q1 2023. And requires NO drop-off in sales for March vs Jan/Feb (indeed it still has March ahead, by the typical post-wave amount from last few quarters)
Even if we pretended March would have 37% growth ABOVE the expected amount based on Jan/Feb (applying roughly the sales growth of 2023 worldwide-- and we KNOW it won't from Teslas own mouth) you'd still be almost 10,000 cars short of Q1 2023s number in Europe.
Anyone have experience trading or knowledge about TSLY and TSLL?
I’ve read these decay from rebalancing and not a long term hold and to be careful trading them. Are they good to trade when TSLA is in an uptrend and what else should one know about them?
TSLY seems to show massive bullish whale inflow lately (red on right) plus strong RSI:
I’ve read these decay from rebalancing and not a long term hold and to be careful trading them. Are they good to trade when TSLA is in an uptrend and what else should one know about them?
TSLY seems to show massive bullish whale inflow lately (red on right) plus strong RSI:
I've held a small position for about a year and generally it tracks tsla at a <1 beta.
As for the sudden inflow I'm curious if that's accurate. I know it's not updated frequently but the total assets under management hasn't really changed recently if my memory is correct. Could be a "glitch" due to the recent reverse split tsly just had.
I have TSLY and regretted it. It's been underperforming, but I don't know if that's due to TSLA's drop or something else?
Solid reasoning as usual @Knightshade and time will tell...
My 2 cents on this overall discussion: The business model of internet subscriber monetization production prediction is to predict low first, then continue to regularly adjust up the closer you get to actual numbers. I like to call it 'hook, line and sinker' as it continues to work as we continue to discuss it and are summarly divided on the topic. I also wish it wouldn't come into this thread, but be saved for the main thread, but wishes are about as worthless as the paper they are printed on.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Guys let stay civil and trade in the between. Our goal is to make money whether the SP goes up or down or flat. We all want it to go to the Moon that’s fact. No one want Tesla to failed….I would hope.
Im happy it stuck between 192 to 205 now since it make those trade lots more preditables. If it Moon that great too as we can trade the upsides.
Right now trading the flatness and the AI hypes NVDA is good till it last.
Ride out the storm till we see a break in the cloud . Then move on to Plan B.
dl003 and others will till us when. Silly dog me just enjoyed the rides and follow wagging his tails.
Im happy it stuck between 192 to 205 now since it make those trade lots more preditables. If it Moon that great too as we can trade the upsides.
Right now trading the flatness and the AI hypes NVDA is good till it last.
Ride out the storm till we see a break in the cloud . Then move on to Plan B.
dl003 and others will till us when. Silly dog me just enjoyed the rides and follow wagging his tails.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Anyone have projection for NVDA this week? Doggy think it may hit 900 this week before CPI FOMC weeks drag it down again.
Plan to sell some aggressive ITM puts. Those have crazy premium. A 20 wide put leg is only 1:1 profit margin required.
Plan to not hold but selling into the pump and close it at 50% profit.
Plan to sell some aggressive ITM puts. Those have crazy premium. A 20 wide put leg is only 1:1 profit margin required.
Plan to not hold but selling into the pump and close it at 50% profit.
No idea, but I'll look to sell a few -p800's on Monday
Will be interesting too see where SMCI goes too...
I've been working on an option strategy which requires quick buying or selling at the open or close of the market of (at least) 100 TSLA option strangles (2.5 or 5 OTM with 0.5 to 1.5 weeks until expiry).
The problem with my current trading app (IB) is that placing orders is not a fast process. National law requires that it first has to show the impact on margin before I can confirm the order, even if no margin is required. It takes the app 5-6 seconds to make that calculation, which means valuable time is lost before I can confirm the order.
When the quotes move around a lot it means I'm often chasing the market and my orders don't always get executed, especially when I choose the middle quote. My orders would immediately execute if I choose 'best' or 'market' instead of 'limit', but I'm afraid I will get a very bad price, even though the TSLA options market is very liquid and my strikes and dates are popular. Does anyone have experience with 'best' or 'market' orders with TSLA options? Is it possible to get screwed with a very low price or will you always get a normal price?
And what happens if I set a price which is a bit lower than I want (when selling)? Will it execute for that low price or is it possible that I get a better price anyway?
Thanks in advance for any advice.
The problem with my current trading app (IB) is that placing orders is not a fast process. National law requires that it first has to show the impact on margin before I can confirm the order, even if no margin is required. It takes the app 5-6 seconds to make that calculation, which means valuable time is lost before I can confirm the order.
When the quotes move around a lot it means I'm often chasing the market and my orders don't always get executed, especially when I choose the middle quote. My orders would immediately execute if I choose 'best' or 'market' instead of 'limit', but I'm afraid I will get a very bad price, even though the TSLA options market is very liquid and my strikes and dates are popular. Does anyone have experience with 'best' or 'market' orders with TSLA options? Is it possible to get screwed with a very low price or will you always get a normal price?
And what happens if I set a price which is a bit lower than I want (when selling)? Will it execute for that low price or is it possible that I get a better price anyway?
Thanks in advance for any advice.
Fidelity will give you the best price they can. So if it is 0.5 on the bid and 0.7 on the ask, and I put 0.3 as the limit, I will almost always get 0.5 or better. Like you said, if it is a popular strike with good volume, market order should be ok (at least with a large broker like Fidelity). The problem comes when it is far OTM will little volume - don't do market.
Similar threads
