I tend to think this is just a reaction to a good week last week and de-risking. I did BTC my 170p and 215c though. Premiums for next week seem to suggest this will be short lived.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
What was the general summary if ya don't mind? I don't have the free time to listen to it.
ProfessorZoom
Member
You should give @alojoh a follow. He got the EPS exactly right Q4.
Worth a read:
“To date, the rally off the October 2023 low has provided very little retracement. In fact, when we began the pullback I outlined to expect a few weeks ago in my last published article, we had to adjust our view during that pullback to the potential that the market will not fulfill the complete pullback we expected. As it was developing, I had to adjust my support to 4930SPX, which is basically where the market bottomed during that last pullback.
“Moreover, we had set our next resistance overhead to 5155SPX. And, as we are approaching it now, the market is providing us with another potential extension. So, the parameters for the coming week are as follows. I am expecting a pullback in the coming week. If that pullback is corrective, and we do not break back below 5048SPX, we have a set-up which will then point us to the 5350SPX region next. And, moving through the 5155-5180 resistance overhead points us to 5350-5390.
“And, then we can move onto the next potential surprise. Once this next rally completes, and we then break back below 5048SPX, it will open the door to a potential decline that can be exceptionally rapid and violent in nature, which ultimately points us down to the 3500-3800SPX region later this year.
“So, let’s take one step at a time. The 5048SPX level is support for the coming week, and if it holds, then it sets up a rally to the 5350+ region over the coming weeks, which can lead to a major market top. And, when the market sees a sustained break of the 5048SPX level, that will open the door to a major market decline in 2024.
“In the bigger picture, I have outlined in prior articles the signals for which I will be closely watching to suggest that a long-term bear market is about to take hold. I personally have my plans in place already should we see those indications. I would strongly suggest that each and every investor develop their own risk management plan which suits their investment style, time horizon, and risk profile.”
https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/p...ay-Be-Coming-This-Summer-202403048942063.html
“To date, the rally off the October 2023 low has provided very little retracement. In fact, when we began the pullback I outlined to expect a few weeks ago in my last published article, we had to adjust our view during that pullback to the potential that the market will not fulfill the complete pullback we expected. As it was developing, I had to adjust my support to 4930SPX, which is basically where the market bottomed during that last pullback.
“Moreover, we had set our next resistance overhead to 5155SPX. And, as we are approaching it now, the market is providing us with another potential extension. So, the parameters for the coming week are as follows. I am expecting a pullback in the coming week. If that pullback is corrective, and we do not break back below 5048SPX, we have a set-up which will then point us to the 5350SPX region next. And, moving through the 5155-5180 resistance overhead points us to 5350-5390.
“And, then we can move onto the next potential surprise. Once this next rally completes, and we then break back below 5048SPX, it will open the door to a potential decline that can be exceptionally rapid and violent in nature, which ultimately points us down to the 3500-3800SPX region later this year.
“So, let’s take one step at a time. The 5048SPX level is support for the coming week, and if it holds, then it sets up a rally to the 5350+ region over the coming weeks, which can lead to a major market top. And, when the market sees a sustained break of the 5048SPX level, that will open the door to a major market decline in 2024.
“In the bigger picture, I have outlined in prior articles the signals for which I will be closely watching to suggest that a long-term bear market is about to take hold. I personally have my plans in place already should we see those indications. I would strongly suggest that each and every investor develop their own risk management plan which suits their investment style, time horizon, and risk profile.”
https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/p...ay-Be-Coming-This-Summer-202403048942063.html
430k-450k delivery forecast. $0.55 EPS. Some upside potential in US.
The data we have so far for Q1 is not looking promising. China sales being down 6% YoY after the first two months is not good. 2nd month sales across Europe are coming in rough.
Everyone here should be positioned to be at least considerate of this data. March and even April could be very rough and choppy months for TSLA.
Then add in a potential macro market pullback anytime in the next couple of months. It aint a pretty time to be bull on TSLA
ProfessorZoom
Member
Could be, but monthly is choppy especially without the recovery month accounted for. Pipeline refilling after February New Year's shutdown would bleed into March.
ChiefRollo
Member
You can try / consider adiggs’s long dated calls approach.
No buying yet. I did buy last time around 190 and am glad that I did (in the form of June '26 300 strike calls). I probably should start buying again as I sold most of those when we were more like 205. The rationale for buying again at this price would be the same as it was last time - that while I expect more down from here, I don't know that it will, and 200 is sort of my balance point where I aim for roughly 50/50 cash and shares.
I'm waiting though for the moment as I think the share price will be coming down further today and/or tomorrow. I'm also thinking that if I see 180 then I'll start accumulating.
Everytime you/one asks the AI a question it uses over 8 oz of water!
Post in thread 'Selling TSLA Options - Be the House'
Wiki - Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
sry i can't log in to my google sheets coz i lost my key due to a st*pid laptop crash plus i got downgraded from thinkorswim to the g*dawful garbage rly pathetic TD Active Trader so i am rn having a very bad dayyyyyyyyyy
ChiefRollo
Member
ChiefRollo
Member
Sry!sry i can't log in to my google sheets coz i lost my key due to a st*pid laptop crash plus i got downgraded from thinkorswim to the g*dawful garbage rly pathetic TD Active Trader so i am rn having a very bad dayyyyyyyyyy
View attachment 1024528
Twitter is a decent gauge of capitulation amongst TSLA retail holders. Seeing quite a few former TSLA bulls now spouting the usual bull gone bear talking points with today's move. If we see 150's in the next month or two, I expect to see a few more Tesla_Economist bearish pivots which will be my cue to reposition to full on bullish positions
Also, this thread is a good back and forth on James's position:
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
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