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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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They are 2 different companies with different life cycles. Just because they were highly correlated during a specific window of time doesn't mean they will again. TSLA the stock will only do as well as Tesla the company.

That being said, many seem to think TSLA is a dog atm. Dead stock?
Don't lose sight of the big picture. Still in a very bullish consolidation. Gotta say, this doesn't look like the right time to be bearish.
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If TSLA the stock will only do as well as Tesla the company, what are some reasons that make you feel bullish mid- to long term?
 
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BTO 2 x call spread NVDA +c1250/-c1300 6/14 for $7.60 on the possibility (see TSLA’s history) that we will keep going up for 1 or 2 more weeks because of the stock split. Just a dabble, not putting too much on the line.
Hey, thanks for the reminder, I had totally forgotten about the NVDA split! That changes my strategy a bit, I won't go for the big Na 2025 -p1250 now, stick with the weeklies until after the split, then see how it falls...

As of now, still holding 5x -p1100 for this week, which look likely to expire and probably write the same for next
 
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Not a good look guys. Read below.
This doesn't guarantee down, as we've seen before with bullish posture being ignored, just be prepared.

Bearish across all metrics:
First line - Bought above ask: Red dominates
Second line - Bought on ask: Red dominates
Fourth line - Sold on bid: Green dominates
Fifth line - Sold below bid: Green dominates


How to read Contract Trade Statistics
Bullish
First line - Bought above ask: Green dominates
Second line - Bought on ask: Green dominates
Third line - Midmarket: Ignore (unknown if buy or sell)
Fourth line - Sold on bid: Red dominates
Fifth line - Sold below bid: Red dominates

Bearish
First line - Bought above ask: Red dominates
Second line - Bought on ask: Red dominates
Third line - Midmarket: Ignore (unknown if buy or sell)
Fourth line - Sold on bid: Green dominates
Fifth line - Sold below bid: Green dominates


1717011970142.png


1717012052183.png
 
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Is it time for a three day market dump?

Yesterday would count. although the numbers where slightly positive. Today down. Tomorrow red again?

Just in time for PCE on Friday.

Bond auctions yesterday were shaky and today the yields... well, take a look at them.

Think market is ready to price in ZERO rate cuts for the year unless PCE shows them the way to a cut.
 
Update:

Bearish positions/sentiment building further

How to read:

Bearish
First line - Red dominates
Second line - Red dominates
[Third line - Ignore]
Fourth line - Green dominates
Fifth line - Green dominates

Bullish
First line - Green dominates
Second line - Green dominates
[Third line - Ignore]
Fourth line - Red dominates
Fifth line - Red dominates

1717017130286.png




Red spikes are puts:

1717017221431.png
 
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Is it time for a three day market dump?

Yesterday would count. although the numbers where slightly positive. Today down. Tomorrow red again?

Just in time for PCE on Friday.

Bond auctions yesterday were shaky and today the yields... well, take a look at them.

Think market is ready to price in ZERO rate cuts for the year unless PCE shows them the way to a cut.
Didn't most prior PCE always come in better then CPI. Last CPI was good so shouldn't this PCE be better?
 
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Gotta say, this doesn't look like the right time to be bearish.
The chart looks a lot different if you focus on 2022-2026. In other words, how representative is the company between 2020 and 2022 relative to 2024-2026/8? Expecting 20-22 to repeat is currently a stretch of the imagination... barring a huge change in the company.

Alternately, where does revenue or earnings line up with that second order slope?
 
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Im going to call bunk on this one.. I made my first 100% on NVDA in six months during 2020, and within another 12 months a 2nd 100%.. (200% overall not a double double) so there was quite a bit of interest and movement in the stock, mostly for other reasons, gaming, bitcoin mining, autonomous driving and vehicle use before the overwhelming majority of retail or institutional buyers had heard of OpenAI or Ai for that matter.

But yes, it’s up nearly 3 fold since then, and doesn’t look like its going to stop anytime soon.

Unless I guess you mean it was “hated” just prior to the OpenAI announcement in ~ Oct 2022, because it was down 50%, but you know what else was down 50%, pretty much EVERYTHING.

META, TSLA, AMZN, GOOGL, CRM, OKTA, PYPL, I’m running out of keys. ;-)
Yeah I was talking about the period of Q4 2022 prior to the OpenAI announcement. Before that, it was all talk of crypto demand waning and demand for Nvidia gaming GPU's being low. Yes a bunch of stocks were down.....Nvidia was down materially more than the big tech companies were with the exception of TSLA and META.

There was little demand for Nvidia shares until the OpenAI announcement showed what was in store for Nvidia's chips.
 
The chart looks a lot different if you focus on 2022-2026. In other words, how representative is the company between 2020 and 2022 relative to 2024-2026/8? Expecting 20-22 to repeat is currently a stretch of the imagination... barring a huge change in the company.

Alternately, where does revenue or earnings line up with that second order slope?
I would argue pretty representative actually. 2020-2022 was all about it becoming clear to the market that Tesla was going to be the leader in EV's and do it profitably even though it felt apart because of multiple reasons that we all know.

Tesla solving and monetizing autonomy in a big way would no doubt create a bigger move than 2020-2022 which follows this uptrend channel pretty realistically. Of course, Tesla has to deliver on autonomy. Which as I mentioned in a earlier post, if you don't believe Tesla will solve autonomy, well then you should go ahead and sell because TSLA will 100% not stay in this uptrend channel.
 
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I've had the CT for a month now, and words can't describe how much I LOVE this truck. Not only is it insanely quiet and smooth on the highway, but Steer-by-wire is a game changer. I don't even want to drive my Model S anymore. Having to turn a steering wheel more than a full turn to make a 90 degree turn at a stop light just feels stupid now. My wife says it is by far her favorite vehicle to ride in as a passenger because it is so smooth and quiet, and has so much room. We hardly use the Model Y at our vacation home because we aren't there very often, but I might have to replace it with a second CT. I had a deposit on a Rivian years ago but the bed is too small to fit my road bikes inside without taking the front wheel off. Tomorrow we are taking the bikes in the plane, so I took the front wheels off for that. The two bikes barely take more than half the bed with wheels off, with tons of room for luggage. This leave the entire interior still empty. With my previous Jeep Gran Cherokee, if I wanted to put bikes inside, half the second row would have to go down and we would have very little space left for bags and a third person.

Image.jpeg
 
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