Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Knightshade]

PSA…

US equity markets closed NEXT FRIDAY 3/29/24, and P&D is most likely Monday 4/1/24, although they have done this sometimes on a sunday prior (and since 4/1 is April FOOLS (known historically for ppl who couldn’t follow calendars), having setups ready by Thursday latest (either in or out) might be prudent.

P&D has been on the 2nd of the month every quarter for years and years now (so Tuesday this time)

Last time it wasn't was Jan 3 2020 (when it was on the third), and even in years prior to that it was on the 2nd most of the time.

I don't think it has EVER been on the 1st of the month though I only dug back like 7 or 8 years

 

[Jim Holder]

PSA…

US equity markets closed NEXT FRIDAY 3/29/24, and P&D is most likely Monday 4/1/24, although they have done this sometimes on a sunday prior (and since 4/1 is April FOOLS (known historically for ppl who couldn’t follow calendars), having setups ready by Thursday latest (either in or out) might be prudent.

Thank you. What are your thoughts about chance of a small rally next week, maybe $175 and fade back to $170 around Thursday. Would like a chance to sell more 5/17 -C190's @$7-8 (closed the ones I had today around $166.80 for gains and looking to re-STO).

Parenthetically, I prefer TSLA ends next week $170-$175 vs. $160 so if falls from higher if P&D gets the negative reaction many are expecting.

 

[Yoona]

Link?

no members, i'm testing discord account at least 10 weeks

 

[tivoboy]

P&D has been on the 2nd of the month every quarter for years and years now (so Tuesday this time)

Last time it wasn't was Jan 3 2020 (when it was on the third), and even in years prior to that it was on the 2nd most of the time.

I don't think it has EVER been on the 1st of the month though I only dug back like 7 or 8 years

Corrected, somewhat. That Sunday release has always surprised me, I guess the date IS the date regardless of DAY of week.

 

[dl003]

I mean, it'd be extremely tight for them to sell the last car for the quarter on the 31st, then compile, verify and release data just 8 hours later.

 

[Paul_SF]

alrighty, shutdown time before we see afternoon shenanigans

View attachment 1030627

Discord for Small Accounts also going well (i actually funded a small $100k account for it)

View attachment 1030637

How can one get accepted into that Discord? I'd like to try and learn also! TIA

 

[Yoona]

How can one get accepted into that Discord? I'd like to try and learn also! TIA

no members, i'm testing discord account at least 10 weeks

 

[tivoboy]

Thank you. What are your thoughts about chance of a small rally next week, maybe $175 and fade back to $170 around Thursday. Would like a chance to sell more 5/17 -C190's @$7-8 (closed the ones I had today around $166.80 for gains and looking to re-STO).

Parenthetically, I prefer TSLA ends next week $170-$175 vs. $160 so if falls from higher if P&D gets the negative reaction many are expecting.

Pops can happen for all sorts of reasons, but I just don’t see this happening.. sure a run to $175 next week for some reason could happen, but I doubt it would move the premium needle too much. And IF P&D really is a ss. Then lower is going to be lower.. it’s not all priced in yet by everyone, and E and SP targets will move lower the following week. I even doubt that even IF it’s a MEET (or 0-5% probability a beat) it won’t be a change in direction or guidance UP.

Your new 6/xx puts were up nicely, I think they will be up MORE nicely by the 4/1 week. NFA NFA

NFA

 

[Yoona]

TSLA looking ahead 1 month

if you don't understand gamma/vanna, treat them like OI walls (gamma is magnet if really tall)

note that these are 'per $1 move', not 'per 1% move' - they tend to refresh faster real-time

 

[Jim Holder]

TSLA looking ahead 1 month

if you don't understand gamma/vanna, treat them like OI walls (gamma is magnet if really tall)

View attachment 1030639

Is it correct to interpret that it roughly implies an approx range of $160-$185, going by largest on each side?

 

[Yoona]

Is it correct to interpret that it roughly implies an approx range of $160-$185, going by largest on each side?

yes, but 4/19 150 is lurking, have to observe it the next few weeks

 

[kabin]

My son got 12.3 yesterday. I was talking to him on the phone while he was on a drive. The number of "Oh my God" and "No WAY!!!" from him was hilarious. All the spots that used to make him disengage with previous versions were flawless with 12.3. He said it was like a human. For example, It made a difficult right turn, and then quickly and confidently crossed 3 lanes for an immediate left turn (like a human), among many examples. He was BLOWN AWAY.

I was feeling that too. V12.3 is smoother at times, better roundabouts,.. but there's might be just as many issues as v11 - too many wheel curb strikes, poor set speed control, lane drifting, crossing over the center line on mountain turns, indecisiveness, poor lane selection, excess braking force, ...

I went long TSLA a few days ago given all the praise v12.3 was getting and sold yesterday after driving v12.3 for a couple of days.

 

[Jim Holder]

@Yoona I think this is the same guy that you said has access to interesting data:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1771199822420136429

 

[Discoducky]

What gap up?

Tesla Trims Car Output in China as EV Sales Growth Slows

Tesla Inc. has reduced production at its plant in China, according to people familiar with the matter, amid sluggish growth in electric-vehicle sales and intense competition in the world’s biggest auto market.

www.bloomberg.com

Auto line now reporting this as a fact, but based on the Reuters reporting : Shanghai stops weekend production due to weakening demand in China and in export markets.

 

[Yoona]

@Yoona I think this is the same guy that you said has access to interesting data:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1771199822420136429

there is no one on X who can produce charts like him, i tried to replicate but unable

he mentioned once that he had a customized data feed from some kind of system

 

[tivoboy]

there is no one on X who can produce charts like him, i tried to replicate but unable

he mentioned once that he had a customized data feed from some kind of system

Yeah, straight from Citadel.

NFA, not TSLA but this NVDA move smells like a bull trap to me..still holding though, and will be writing. But, since nobody seems to want to trade TSLA anymore (have you seen the daily volume moves down?) they’ve moved to greener pastures for derivatives play.

And don’t forget to respect the $DXY

 

[Jim Holder]

there is no one on X who can produce charts like him, i tried to replicate but unable

he mentioned once that he had a customized data feed from some kind of system

Yeh, was wondering about that and if he's a crank. Glad you find his data decent.

He's saying $180 next week then drop to $175 based on his data

 

[thenewguy1979]

there is no one on X who can produce charts like him, i tried to replicate but unable

he mentioned once that he had a customized data feed from some kind of system

The guy is a "Time Traveler" as he's publicly stated but no-one believe him. He know the future

@Yoona, please provide latest Gamma/Vanna Chart for NVDA for next week.

 

[Yoona]

Yeh, was wondering about that and if he's a crank. Glad you find his data decent.

He's saying $180 next week then drop to $175 based on his data

View attachment 1030674

 

[thenewguy1979]

Yeah, straight from Citadel.

NFA, not TSLA but this NVDA move smells like a bull trap to me..still holding though, and will be writing. But, since nobody seems to want to trade TSLA anymore (have you seen the daily volume moves down?) they’ve moved to greener pastures for derivatives play.

And don’t forget to respect the $DXY

Smelling Bull-Crap are we? Think it's going to break 1000 next week?