-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Yes, I understand the odds.
I'm pointing out what you describe is 2:1, not 3:1.
You keep your original bet when you win, and get paid 2x that bet from the house.
See also @InTheMiddles excellent post on this in real life.
Point remains the same-- Routlette literally shows you on the table how dumb betting the game is.
Depending on the person I suppose either Red/Black is the most obvious since it pays 1:1 but there's also 1 or 2 greens on the wheel... or perhaps single # is the most obvious since that's 35:1 but there's 37 or 38 numbers (depending if there's one or two 0s).
At least when you sit down at blackjack the house edge isn't quite as blatantly laid out on the table for you (esp. since player behavior can alter it somewhat)
It is interesting that each person reads the technicals different. You would think the technicals would be clear with a specific direction, yet, we have opposing views.We may see both, drop to $168-$161 and then head up. Or straight to $188 and then $168. Not very helpful I know
I am also going with @dl003. But we will find out soon enough. Next Tuesday and Wednesday might give us the direction.
Id be scared shitless if everyone drew the same chart. Theoretically many people cant read the chart the same way and be all right or all wrong. Thats what makes a market. Furthermore, since only 10% of traders consistently make money, I want to be in the minority although its often difficult to tell whether Im in the minority or not. Thats where inversing the main thread comes in.
So maybe we should start talking how to trade/hedge for 6/13 which is just 2.5 weeks away. Even if cooler heads are certain it's a nothingburger, it doesn't mean the market will behave rationally. Volatility=opportunity.
Can we pool ideas so none of us get hurt much or at all and we might even profit off the volatility?
My rookie plan as of now:
1) Close all CC's if/when we see $168-$160 in the next few days per @dl003's prediction.
2) Maybe cautiously add some +delta down there (i.e., +C210 7/19? -P160 7/19?). SL/cut if we lose $160.
3) Keep all longs (i.e., shares, +C150 12/2025, -P300 6/2026) through the volatility. May consider dumping some or all of these on a break below $173-$171 and restore at $168-$160, but I usually suck at pulling the trigger on those moves.
4) If for some reason we don't see $160 before 6/13, maybe buy some -P160/+P165 6/28 BPS (correct strikes?) as we near possible tops ($188, $199, $207?)
5) By 6/12 be out of all NTM CC's, including those for strikes/dates you don't want shares called away at. That said, I think selling some -C260 12/24 into the event (take advantage of high IV...) is okay due to the inevitable rotation down, but I may be wrong.
6) Walk away and let the dust settle.
What will you be looking at doing?
Can we pool ideas so none of us get hurt much or at all and we might even profit off the volatility?
My rookie plan as of now:
1) Close all CC's if/when we see $168-$160 in the next few days per @dl003's prediction.
2) Maybe cautiously add some +delta down there (i.e., +C210 7/19? -P160 7/19?). SL/cut if we lose $160.
3) Keep all longs (i.e., shares, +C150 12/2025, -P300 6/2026) through the volatility. May consider dumping some or all of these on a break below $173-$171 and restore at $168-$160, but I usually suck at pulling the trigger on those moves.
4) If for some reason we don't see $160 before 6/13, maybe buy some -P160/+P165 6/28 BPS (correct strikes?) as we near possible tops ($188, $199, $207?)
5) By 6/12 be out of all NTM CC's, including those for strikes/dates you don't want shares called away at. That said, I think selling some -C260 12/24 into the event (take advantage of high IV...) is okay due to the inevitable rotation down, but I may be wrong.
6) Walk away and let the dust settle.
What will you be looking at doing?
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
I'm guessing you're asking me since I'm so good at this stuff. I've been pondering selling half to three quarters of all of my holdings. Everything is in tax free accounts, so I don't need to worry about capital gains tax.
Last year when we went down to $100 I hadn't lost confidence in Tesla, but this year things feel different. It's bad enough I could have sold at the peak and never had to work another day in my life, now I don't want to be down there at $80 thinking well now I might have to work for the rest of my life. If I get out now I'll still have plenty left to work with. Maybe it's time to diversify or just be in cash. Of course if I get out I risk missing out on some big gains. I'm back out on the ledge again.
If you have 90% confidence in the range and the volatility then it is easy to play; you just need to time the exit transactions.
For me I have about 60% confidence in the range, and 50% confidence in the volatility... and maybe 30% confidence in the timeline.
I view risk/reward differently than many here though; I base it on equivalent stock price, which essentially amplifies my perception of exposure by 10x.
So I will sit things out until I have greater clarity.
The new transitions/metamorphosis/death-spiral (depends who you ask) going on for Tesla in many areas definitely adds to the near-term gloom and uncertainty, even for stalwart bulls. This is why it's tough to value the company and likely explains the extreme volatility. At some point soon it will likely break hard in either direction. Difficult to guess which right now, and that is where the opportunity lies.
I wish I had everyone else’s experience in trading, but I only place calls and puts with extended range, nothing else yet as I am still learning, I will watch if the stock drops by the week of June 3rd, then get out till the vote is decided. Then get back in depending on if the vote was for or against the pay package.So maybe we should start talking how to trade/hedge for 6/13 which is just 2.5 weeks away. Even if cooler heads are certain it's a nothingburger, it doesn't mean the market will behave rationally. Volatility=opportunity.
Can we pool ideas so none of us get hurt much or at all and we might even profit off the volatility?
My rookie plan as of now:
1) Close all CC's if/when we see $168-$160 in the next few days per @dl003's prediction.
2) Maybe cautiously add some +delta down there (i.e., +C210 7/19? -P160 7/19?). SL/cut if we lose $160.
3) Keep all longs (i.e., shares, +C150 12/2025, -P300 6/2026) through the volatility. May consider dumping some or all of these on a break below $173-$171 and restore at $168-$160, but I usually suck at pulling the trigger on those moves.
4) If for some reason we don't see $160 before 6/13, maybe buy some -P160/+P165 6/28 BPS (correct strikes?) as we near possible tops ($188, $199, $207?)
5) By 6/12 be out of all NTM CC's, including those for strikes/dates you don't want shares called away at. That said, I think selling some -C260 12/24 into the event (take advantage of high IV...) is okay due to the inevitable rotation down, but I may be wrong.
6) Walk away and let the dust settle.
What will you be looking at doing?
I do not think Elon is leaving. And, for anyone who thinks he can take FSD and Optimus with him, he cannot, it is owned by Tesla. The Board will just put another current/future pay package together And/or continue with the DE appeal.
One other thought from @dl003 response to my comment. I thought your 1st line about being scared sh*tless was very funny. And, based on all of your inputs, I am 99.8% positive your are in that 10%.
Uncertainty is sometimes the best reason to buy. People tend to assign the worst outcome to an uncertain scenario, while in fact, its not uncertain at all. Its up to 1 man. So, do you think Elon will shrug it off and find other ways to get what he wants or do you think hell just say **** it and walk away.
3 days weekend, just chill out and relax.
3 days weekend, just chill out and relax.
Last edited:
Totally disagree. To suggest that the casino is showing you how bad your odds are is a fallacy. You imply that there are three groups that only pay 2:1. This suggests that the house has a 33% advantage. As long as you stay away from the 0-00-1-2-3 combination, the house edge on any combination of bets is always exactly 1/19, or 5.26%. Regarding blackjack, I agree that the casino takes huge advantages of people who don’t understand basic strategy. Add to this that the casino’s slide in 6/5 payouts on blackjack and the casino has almost double the advantage on a perfect strategy blackjack player compared to roulette.
I think we are range-bound between 170 and 200 until we get P&D numbers in the 600k range. I think 8/8 might give a little bump over that for a day or two, but that is about it.
I know this thread isn't about fundamentals, but Tesla is trading at a PE of 46 with no signs of earnings growth. NVDA is at 62 with crazy proven growth. To me there is more risk that the PE creeps down to 30 (comparable to AAPL). There needs to be faith in something that Tesla can do to double earnings or better... but they haven't deleivered on anything that they should have been able to capitalize on. I don't get why energy growth hasn't been much more significant, I am at a loss as to why some of the pet projects are pumped to promote a vision that seems half-baked. I am also starting to think that Tesla vehicles are losing their edge, but that is an emotional reaction rather than one based in sufficient experience.
So, for me, something has to change significantly to see $220, and the market just needs to be spooked to see $160. Maybe next week I will start playing the channel trade, maybe scalping July -P170 and -CC200 up until 20DTE.
When you have an edge and the broader market doesn't get it then it is a great reason to buy. I don't see any outcome of the shareholder vote in either direction or any measure causing material risk, and honestly I don't see the market thinking it does either... so no edge there.
If one was confident that on 8/8 fully functional robotaxis will start rolling off the assembly line and serving the Austin metro area and that is some thing the market has fully missed... great reason to buy. (Said person might do well to buy that bridge they have been hearing about as well.)
The technicals cover both mechancial and emotional purchase patterns in the absence of a catalyst. I just struggle to find a catalyst that is going to offer an opportunity to break out.
I’ve heard this bull catalysts for like 1-2 years straight now at this point…and yet it hasn’t materialized.
SpaceXaddict
Member
The greeks have expanded, or maybe I never learned them all.
Here's actually a decent explanation of them:
I think I need to make a worksheet, with the definitions and then study it and re-read Yoona's explanation afterwards.
I apologize, I had thought "Vanna" was a modern made up thing that wasn't well established...
SpaceXaddict
Member
Thank you again! I am doing the research and learning to build up to fully understand your original write up, and I will watch the videos you linked right now, and then again when I hopefully understand it all better.
I hadn't really studied the greeks beyond Delta, Gamma and Theta, so it's school time!
And thanks to you I have enough pointers to follow and learn from.
I wish there was a tip jar. Do you use Lightning network by any chance?
Lol TSLA Bulls:
1. Funds are underweight TSLA which will lead to a squeeze -> 2. Fundamentals don't matter, if you are looking at the future you don't look at car sales only FSD - > 3. Wall St doesn't understand this, they are stupid and only we see the true value of TSLA, we don't need big money -> 1. Funds are underweight TSLA which will lead to squeeze.
The circle of life.
Similar threads
