Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

Not seeing much puts today so far, NFA:

How to read Contract Trade Statistics (thanks @Yoona!):

Bullish
First line - Bought above ask: Green dominates
Second line - Bought on ask: Green dominates
Third line - Midmarket: Ignore (unknown if buy or sell)
Fourth line - Sold on bid: Red dominates
Fifth line - Sold below bid: Red dominates

Bearish
First line - Bought above ask: Red dominates
Second line - Bought on ask: Red dominates
Third line - Midmarket: Ignore (unknown if buy or sell)
Fourth line - Sold on bid: Green dominates
Fifth line - Sold below bid: Green dominates

 

[Yoona]

Midmarket:
If Red dominates - Put buying=Unknown if Buy or Sell
If Green dominates - Call buying=Unknown if Buy or Sell

Midmarket:
If Red dominates - Put buying=Unknown if Buy or Sell
If Green dominates - Call buying=Unknown if Buy or Sell

 

[thenewguy1979]

Come on TSLA - make up your mind. Either up or down not sideway. Theta killing doggy Put Spread

STO -1100P NVDA exp 5/31 during the big morning dump.

 

[Max Plaid]

Come on TSLA - make up your mind. Either up or down not sideway. Theta killing doggy Put Spread

STO -1100P NVDA exp 5/31 during the big morning dump.

With 100x -p172.40 / -c180 + 25x -c170, I have to say this is rather lovely!

 

[mrmage]

who is making money with AI?

The hyper scalers selling ai compute time are making money. There is way more demand than they can supply.

If you're asking what applications are driving that, anything where getting ideas or being close, or getting it right most the time is good enough.

Healthcare is a $7T ww market. Augmented Intellligence to improve physician productivity. Imaging diagnosis, because there are not enough doctors, so ai can help with preventative care and diagnosis at lower cost.

For example: diabetes causes risk of blindness (diabetic retinopathy). Millions have diabetes and should be scanned periodically, but there are not enough healthcare providers.

An fda approved box to check for DR uses AI, can be placed at retail locations to tell the person if they need to see a doctor. Accuracy is so good that it's covered by medical malpractice insurance. This offloads work for ophthalmologists by letting them focus on patients that need treatment.

A broader example is accelerating drug discovery. For example, using AI to assimilate vast amounts of existing medical data to find drug candidates that are further narrowed down by scientists. This saves money and creates new markets.

These are a handful of examples in a list that goes on endlessly in all industries. Most people don't hear about them because they're not as sexy as FSD cars, but the markets are huge.

We diacuss FSD here a lot, but that's one of the hardest areas to apply AI because it's intolerant of errors. However, there are lots of uses for AI that have strong ROI now, and will have even better ROI as AI models and training improve.

Companies are not spending all this money on AI training because its a fad. They are seeing opportunities and results now.

 

[thenewguy1979]

The hyper scalers selling ai compute time are making money. There is way more demand than they can supply.

If you're asking what applications are driving that, anything where getting ideas or being close, or getting it right most the time is good enough.

Healthcare $7T ww market. Augmented Intellligence to improve physician productivity. Imaging diagnosis, because there are not enough doctors, so ai can with everything for both preventative health and diagnosis.

For example: diabetes causes risk of blindness (diabetic retinopathy). Millions have diabetes and should be scanned periodically, but there are not enough healthcare providers.

An fda approved box to check for DR uses AI, can be placed at retail locations to tell the person if they need to see a doctor. Accuracy is so good that it's covered by medical malpractice insurance. This offloads work for ophthalmologists by letting them focus on patients that need treatment.

Another is accelerating drug discovery. For example, using AI to assimilate vast amounts of medical data to find drug candidates, which are further narrowed down by scientists. This can both save huge amounts of money and create new markets.

These are just specific examples in a list that goes on endlessly in all industries. FSD for cars is discussed here a lot, but imo that's one of the hardest because it's intolerant of errors. However, there are lots of applications for AI that don't require six sigma for equal ROI, but are not as flashy.

AI computational power in theory can solved some of the world most complex issues - cure for cancer IMO is the holy grail....but then you have big Pharma.

Some considered this in the same realm as the dot com eras......

We live in a great times of evolutionary changes but also one of the most challenging and perplexing..

 

[mrmage]

AI computational power in theory can solved some of the world most complex issues - cure for cancer IMO is the holy grail....but then you have big Pharma.

Some considered this in the same realm as the dot com eras......

We live in a great times of evolutionary changes but also one of the most challenging and perplexing..

There are undoubtedly many companies that are overly speculative. However, this is nowhere near dot com because PE and forward PE ratios for the largest AI companies are reasonable.

That means most companies are sustainably investing in AI, seeing enough ROI to justify their expenditures.

What attracted me to NVDA was 1) their PE and forward PE are very much in line with historical, at least when I put money in. 2) the kind of use cases I saw above.

This is not a fad, but when forward PE gets too high, I deleverage.

 

[dl003]

I have 2 extra tickets to watch paint dry. Anyone wanna come with?

 

[Jim Holder]

MM won't fight >175 if market wants to go higher, up to $187.50.

 

[Patrick66]

Based on the noise here we are about in for a capitulation on TSLA. Interesting that it seems out of line with broader consensus. Opportunity... but which direction?

 

[Jim Holder]

Update: Options turning bearish (see first, fourth and fifth lines):

How to read Contract Trade Statistics:

Bullish
First line - Bought above ask: Green dominates
Second line - Bought on ask: Green dominates
Third line - Midmarket: Ignore (unknown if buy or sell)
Fourth line - Sold on bid: Red dominates
Fifth line - Sold below bid: Red dominates

Bearish
First line - Bought above ask: Red dominates
Second line - Bought on ask: Red dominates
Third line - Midmarket: Ignore (unknown if buy or sell)
Fourth line - Sold on bid: Green dominates
Fifth line - Sold below bid: Green dominates

 

[thenewguy1979]

Based on the noise here we are about in for a capitulation on TSLA. Interesting that it seems out of line with broader consensus. Opportunity... but which direction?

The expectation is for a drop to low 160 from now into next week then Mooning to 250+ through Summer.

SP is trading sideway so far. As dl003 mentioned he's watching paint dry to pass the times. Wanna join?

Or do what you do with NVDA and ride the bandwagon upward for now
That big 20+ dip this morning was a great pullback for Put Entry IMO.

Fun Fact - at 116x NVDA will surpassed AAPL Market Cap

 

[greentrees]

Update: Options turning bearish (see first, fourth and fifth lines):

View attachment 1051623

IDK what is this service, but Spotgamma's HIRO (which is typically accurate) shows near-peak notional delta of calls bought and puts sold as of 12:35. Options also often (but not always) follow the price and not lead it, and options impact tends to mean revert - see this snapshot for total notional delta since start of the week.

 

[Jim Holder]

More drama (but may be good for IRA…):

Trump, Musk in talks over advisory role for Tesla CEO

Former President Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk are discussing a potential advisory role for Musk if Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, The Washington Post reported on Wednesday.

According to the report, both parties have discussed Musk's influence on policies related to border security and the economy, reflecting their growing alignment on critical issues. Some people with knowledge of the matter told the newspaper that Musk and tycoon Nelson Peltz had briefed Trump on a plan they've developed to invest in a data-driven project to prevent voter fraud.

Additionally, Peltz and Musk informed Trump about an ongoing campaign within elite circles, in which Musk and his political allies are hosting gatherings of influential business leaders nationwide to persuade them not to support President Biden's re-election.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/donald-trump-elon-musk-alliance-d1fe43e3

 

[Max Plaid]

AI computational power in theory can solved some of the world most complex issues - cure for cancer IMO is the holy grail....but then you have big Pharma.

Some considered this in the same realm as the dot com eras......

We live in a great times of evolutionary changes but also one of the most challenging and perplexing..

I think it's quantum computing rather than "AI" that will be more impactful on the solving of things like cancer: How quantum physics could 'revolutionise everything'

 

[OptionsGrinder]

Thesis: TSLA Daily BB’s constricting and will contain stock price this week.

Continuing to focus on this thesis for next 2.5 days.. sitting on -c185’s… for anyone wondering those are the 12/21 MA’s in yellow and white

 

[Max Plaid]

More drama (but may be good for IRA…):

Trump, Musk in talks over advisory role for Tesla CEO

Former President Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk are discussing a potential advisory role for Musk if Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, The Washington Post reported on Wednesday.

According to the report, both parties have discussed Musk's influence on policies related to border security and the economy, reflecting their growing alignment on critical issues. Some people with knowledge of the matter told the newspaper that Musk and tycoon Nelson Peltz had briefed Trump on a plan they've developed to invest in a data-driven project to prevent voter fraud.

Additionally, Peltz and Musk informed Trump about an ongoing campaign within elite circles, in which Musk and his political allies are hosting gatherings of influential business leaders nationwide to persuade them not to support President Biden's re-election.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/donald-trump-elon-musk-alliance-d1fe43e3

So now MAGA start buying TSLA then, is that why it popped? Because last I heard, the OI was going to repeal most environmental safeguards and guidelines, which is hardly conducive to Tesla's business

Glad I no longer hold any stock, don't mind trading it to make money, but won't be investing in it any more

 

[Max Plaid]

IDK what is this service, but Spotgamma's HIRO (which is typically accurate) shows near-peak notional delta of calls bought and puts sold as of 12:35. Options also often (but not always) follow the price and not lead it, and options impact tends to mean revert - see this snapshot for total notional delta since start of the week.

View attachment 1051630

Hey, welcome, nice first post! Don't understand any of it, but sounds good...

 

[thenewguy1979]

So now MAGA start buying TSLA then, is that why it popped? Because last I heard, the OI was going to repeal most environmental safeguards and guidelines, which is hardly conducive to Tesla's business

Glad I no longer hold any stock, don't mind trading it to make money, but won't be investing in it any more

Apparently they ran out of cash couple minutes back - TSLA back in Red.

One thing that perplexed my little mind - don't Elon have better thing to do like pumping TSLA, but he rather choose to further alienate his customer base by being more entwined politically?

 

[tivoboy]

I think it's quantum computing rather than "AI" that will be more impactful on the solving of things like cancer: How quantum physics could 'revolutionise everything'

It’s really both. But quantum computing will bring more quickly more system wide problems than AI will as it evolves.