-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I want to believe. I really do. What I have conviction in is that inventory has been consumed, and production has been reduced. Hopefully that is enough to get people excited about the stock again.
For now though I am going to focus on caution though.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Found out the reason why SP pulled back today 
Imotep spooked the Market again.
Imotep spooked the Market again.
"some people would prefer a recession..." Um... I think I have a commentary about that and the Fed being out of touch. I appreciate that the Fed's primary directive is essentially efficient deployment of capital, but I think they are failing to see the reality in front of them.Found out the reason why SP pulled back today
Imotep spooked the Market again.
Alright I am in an orthopedic conference in Nice in France and had the time to write to my account director to get the voting link to vote my shares. If my bike ride goes well tomorrow I will vote Yes, if I don’t end in front of my friend and colleague at the top of Nice biggest climb tomorrow on my road bicycle I will vote No. Can’t be more logical than that.
The language sure is getting more aggressive:
“The value of your investment is at risk.”
View attachment 1053266
Asking for a friend:
For those that are bag-holding TSLA from say >$300, is it too late to jump ship before June 13 and salvage what one can from TSLA @ $180-$200 and put it in NVDA (to recoup loses as NVDA grows)?
Asked differently, is it more likely for TSLA to double in the next 1-2 years ($180 to $360), or NVDA ($120 to $240 after the split)?
An alternate: Perhaps sell half now and be 50% TSLA and 50% NVDA?
Not seeking financial advice, just opinion.
For those that are bag-holding TSLA from say >$300, is it too late to jump ship before June 13 and salvage what one can from TSLA @ $180-$200 and put it in NVDA (to recoup loses as NVDA grows)?
Asked differently, is it more likely for TSLA to double in the next 1-2 years ($180 to $360), or NVDA ($120 to $240 after the split)?
An alternate: Perhaps sell half now and be 50% TSLA and 50% NVDA?
Not seeking financial advice, just opinion.
IMHO either of those two would be reasonable choices for selling options against for the next 1-2 years (purpose of this thread). As for seeking a doubling of the underlying share prices in 1-2 years, it could happen with either of them, sure, it’s possible (perhaps slightly more likely with NVDA). But TBH if a quick doubling was my goal and those are the two options I saw in front of me, I’d turn 90-degrees in either direction to see what options 3 and 4 might be…
Find something else besides NVDA. It's too late for that to double in a reasonable fast time frame, definitely not 1-2 years.
TSLA has nothing going on right now so I don't see that doubling in 1-2 years either. Unless you believe they can solve FSD at level 4-5 by then.
The real problem with owning TSLA shares that are underwater is that the market is almost at ATH. Cutting the shares now to get into an overcrowded trade could lead to worse results.
My not financial advice would be to find a good company you believe in that isn't over crowded right now (Basically avoid Semi stocks lol) or has had a bad quarter or two. Then trade loser for loser.
For example selling TSLA at a loss to get into SHOP or PYPL. They are both down a lot, SHOP recently had a barter quarter and has been sold off. CRM and Meta stock also would have worked when they sold off after earnings. Personally I don't like PYPL, it was just a random suggestion, but it looks like a real loser right now (Future winner?). I am looking to get into SHOP, I'm watching it. I got into Meta when it fell and I sold puts on CRM when it fell but they were not assigned and it's bounced now.
And also a major hindsight example. If you sold TSLA at the bottom at $101 and bought Meta on the same day at around $130 you would be up 350+% on Meta. Selling loser for loser.
Just some food for thought for your friend =)
I'm guilty of holding from $400 when I knew I needed to sell, but was concerned about paying the taxes on it; my basis was under $25. Realizing the gain would have made a huge hit on my working assets, so I had to ask myself if losing out on ~40% of the value to pay a tax bill was worth it. That was the fourth dumbest thing I have done investing. Holding onto a stock hoping it gets back to where it was will always cloud your judgement.
In my mind, the hurdles TSLA has to get back to the $300 range are significant and high-risk. NVDA has a much easier path to $1800; beyond that is not transparent today, but there should be more room.
A concern is buying NVDA here *might* be like buying TSLA @$400(?), and wind up with same bag situation in a year. I’m not plugged into the latest info on NVDA so this might be an ignorant analogy, but…it did drop to $7xx a few weeks ago.
Though if it’s truly not comparable, then maybe if it sees ~$800 again (dunno if that’s too ambitious) that’s the time to pull the trigger and go in with perhaps 50% of TSLA $$? NFA of course.
Once you see, you can’t unsee:
Length of consolidation is very similar. Breakdown may start June 10 or sooner and recover strongly at/after the event on June 13.
Gonna be a tough one to trade via options unless FOTM and time CC (for example -C250 3/2025) to allow for likely $170’s retrace/retests after any runs >$200, etc.
+ IV will be high Monday/Tuesday next week so if we don’t dump this week it may pay to wait to sell then, or at least save some cons to sell then.
Length of consolidation is very similar. Breakdown may start June 10 or sooner and recover strongly at/after the event on June 13.
Gonna be a tough one to trade via options unless FOTM and time CC (for example -C250 3/2025) to allow for likely $170’s retrace/retests after any runs >$200, etc.
+ IV will be high Monday/Tuesday next week so if we don’t dump this week it may pay to wait to sell then, or at least save some cons to sell then.
Last edited:
TSLA remains one of the most shorted names in the hedge fund space and is one of the biggest mutual fund underweights, per Goldman:
Credit: ZeroHedge
Credit: ZeroHedge
Curious theory:
Institutions know the pay package is passing. They know how they're voting, and if they were voting no, they would have sold the stock heavily by now and TSLA would be much lower than it is.
Institutions know the pay package is passing. They know how they're voting, and if they were voting no, they would have sold the stock heavily by now and TSLA would be much lower than it is.
Not to give financial advice or anything, but selling puts laddered out at least gives you a $50 discount on current prices. When you get assigned take the shares and be happy for your discount. Try not to get everything assigned at once, or at the same strike in the hopes of not everything being assigned.
(My biggest trading failure was what I will refer to as a bull noose-- selling DITM LEAP Puts so you can by ATM LEAP Calls in a company whose CEO and spirit leader has pancreatic cancer. Noose doesn't go around the neck...)
15k China for the last week, some improvement... European deliveries looking about the same as April, needs a few more days to get the numbers in
Last edited:
PIPER: $TSLA market share “has fallen .. Deliveries should rise q/q through 4Q24, but after that, we're unsure if growth is a priority. .. we're cutting our forecast for deliveries, but boosting our outlook for margins. These changes offset each other, and our price target remains $205.”
Dollar up, stocks down. Probably why oil both Brent and WTI are lower than they really should have been post OPEC meeting.
How is everyone playing the vote/meeting. I’m not sure if I should do nothing, take advantage of the IV spike, or buy far OTM calls and puts.
Similar threads
