Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

 

[Discoducky]

I'm hearing rumours of an interest rate cut being possible,

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

That would be a huge surprise

 

[tivoboy]

They might have done this for sure, but maybe what they got was priority delivery of Blackwell B100’s?

 

[Max Plaid]

JOLTS incoming (looks like someone got the numbers early...)

 

[mongo]

They might have done this for sure, but maybe what they got was priority delivery of Blackwell B100’s?

Wouldn't that only be possible if the X/xAI orders had been B100?
Seems like Tesla had nowhere to install the H100s so punted them to X and delayed needing to pay for them.

 

[Jim Holder]

So need to change vote because of an article by Lora .. NO FKN WAY

if Datacenter was not ready and they postponed deliveries, isn't that a good thing ... didn't have to pay for goods till needed?

8 business days till the vote ... I'm in camp that vote will pass ... I might buy a few calls ... +- $15-20 based on vote results ...

Long time Tesla hater Lora Kolodny is out with a story saying @elonmusk redirected Nvidia chips from Tesla to xAI. I can tell everyone is going to be talking about this one, so let's dig in.

The first thing to know about Lora is that she has been working closely with Tesla short sellers like my stalker Aaron Greenspan for years. She even helped spread accusations that I had child pornography when Tesla shorts were trying to smear me back in the day. Everything she writes should be taken with a huge grain of salt and she has often been wrong in the past. This time is no different.

Lora's evidence for this story is an internal Nvidia memo from December 2023 which said "Elon prioritizing X H100 GPU cluster deployment at X versus Tesla by redirecting 12k of shipping H100 GPUs originally slated for Tesla to X instead. In exchange, original X orders of 12k H100 slated for Jan and June to be redirected to Tesla"

The conclusion she draws from this is that Tesla is being ripped off at the expense of xAI. But it is already June now, so both companies have received the 12k GPUs. While she assumes that this is because he hates Tesla and wants to prioritize xAI, this is an assumption that excludes several more benign possibilities. For example, it's possible that Tesla was still setting up some of the existing H100s they received and were not ready to take delivery of more. It's possible that Tesla was under margin pressure and needed to spread out delivery over a longer time period to minimize the impact on cash flow. While many will rush to say Elon made a decision to harm Tesla we don't know all the factors that went into this decision and I'm not going to assume the worst just yet.

She then points to a memo that says their $10 billion in AI spending "conflicts with bookings and FY 2025 forecasts". But the Nvidia staffer who wrote the memo didn't realize that that $10 billion includes spending on Tesla's car inference computers as well as their own in house Dojo supercomputer.

Another point worth considering is that Tesla will use xAI language models in products like the Optimus robot and their in car voice assistant. Grok 1.5 vision looks like it could have powerful self-driving applications as well. So it is not just xAI vs Tesla — the models being produced will actually be useful to both companies.

From what I've heard, Tesla is building out training compute massively and is no longer as compute constrained as they were in the past. They have close to 40,000 H100s and are planning to expand to 85,000 by the end of the year. In addition their in house Dojo supercomputer is now in mass production and expanding rapidly.

From what I have heard from my sources at Nvidia, Tesla has ordered over 100,000 H200s from Nvidia that they will be taking delivery of over the next 12 months. Deliveries have already started.

Ahead of the vote on Musk's compensation, Tesla short sellers and their allies like Kolodny will be doing their best to make sure you hate Musk and think that he is ruining the company. The reality is that nobody except Musk could have pushed the company to deliver FSD 12.

Sadly many people will believe this story and repeat it as fact. But I have read Lora's story and see no solid evidence that Tesla isn't getting enough delivery chips because of xAI.

(Whole Mars)

 

[Jim Holder]

Bear attack:

1.4MM for Friday +P170

 

[elasalle]

Long time Tesla hater Lora Kolodny is out with a story saying @elonmusk redirected Nvidia chips from Tesla to xAI. I can tell everyone is going to be talking about this one, so let's dig in.

The first thing to know about Lora is that she has been working closely with Tesla short sellers like my stalker Aaron Greenspan for years. She even helped spread accusations that I had child pornography when Tesla shorts were trying to smear me back in the day. Everything she writes should be taken with a huge grain of salt and she has often been wrong in the past. This time is no different.

Lora's evidence for this story is an internal Nvidia memo from December 2023 which said "Elon prioritizing X H100 GPU cluster deployment at X versus Tesla by redirecting 12k of shipping H100 GPUs originally slated for Tesla to X instead. In exchange, original X orders of 12k H100 slated for Jan and June to be redirected to Tesla"

The conclusion she draws from this is that Tesla is being ripped off at the expense of xAI. But it is already June now, so both companies have received the 12k GPUs. While she assumes that this is because he hates Tesla and wants to prioritize xAI, this is an assumption that excludes several more benign possibilities. For example, it's possible that Tesla was still setting up some of the existing H100s they received and were not ready to take delivery of more. It's possible that Tesla was under margin pressure and needed to spread out delivery over a longer time period to minimize the impact on cash flow. While many will rush to say Elon made a decision to harm Tesla we don't know all the factors that went into this decision and I'm not going to assume the worst just yet.

She then points to a memo that says their $10 billion in AI spending "conflicts with bookings and FY 2025 forecasts". But the Nvidia staffer who wrote the memo didn't realize that that $10 billion includes spending on Tesla's car inference computers as well as their own in house Dojo supercomputer.

Another point worth considering is that Tesla will use xAI language models in products like the Optimus robot and their in car voice assistant. Grok 1.5 vision looks like it could have powerful self-driving applications as well. So it is not just xAI vs Tesla — the models being produced will actually be useful to both companies.

From what I've heard, Tesla is building out training compute massively and is no longer as compute constrained as they were in the past. They have close to 40,000 H100s and are planning to expand to 85,000 by the end of the year. In addition their in house Dojo supercomputer is now in mass production and expanding rapidly.

From what I have heard from my sources at Nvidia, Tesla has ordered over 100,000 H200s from Nvidia that they will be taking delivery of over the next 12 months. Deliveries have already started.

Ahead of the vote on Musk's compensation, Tesla short sellers and their allies like Kolodny will be doing their best to make sure you hate Musk and think that he is ruining the company. The reality is that nobody except Musk could have pushed the company to deliver FSD 12.

Sadly many people will believe this story and repeat it as fact. But I have read Lora's story and see no solid evidence that Tesla isn't getting enough delivery chips because of xAI.

(Whole Mars)

Would have been even better if Tesla PR/BoD releases some stmt like this every day for the next 8 days till the vote - will be lot more effective then just those ads.

 

[Yoona]

i miss him

Quite the opposite..
"Gamma-Squeeze" is "just", that gamma is at maximum, when the SP hovers at the strike. Why? Because Delta is at 0.5 at that moment.

On mondays gamma is smaller, because delta won't rise/fall as fast, as proportionally more money wanders into theta and is burned slowly. Think of delta as "money burned by SP-moves" and theta as "money burned until expiration". So on monday you have a bigger theta-pile so moves won't swing hard. You have to go 1 standard-deviation from the SP (roughly 20$ on tesla on mondays) to get from 0.5 delta to 0.75 or 0.25.. But on friday afternoon a standard-deviation is only 5$ ..
So to "squeeze" from 0.25 to 0.75 delta you have to go 40$ on monday fast. Or 10$ late on friday.
ALL with the caveat that most participants won't cover and just hedge - basically not looking at it and letting the algos trade.

Why is this delta-number so important? Delta equates to the probability of the option ending in the money implied by the options market (i.e. open options). One option "risks" 100 shares. If you want to "insure" yourself according to probability then the mathematically minimal risk would be to have 25 stock for every 0.25-delta option sold.
BUT if the Stock rises then your equations move. You get "more risk" to be really on the hook for 100 shares and you only got 25. Therefore for every dollar up/down you buy/sell the gamma of stock.
In the 10$ friday-afternoon example above: you hegded your 0.25 delta bet with 25 stock. The next time you look the stock is up and the option has 0.75 delta. Now you are on the hook for stochastically 75 shares. Two solutions: Hope the stock reverses or adopt your position. First one is a recipe for bankruptcy. So you have to but 50 shares on the market to bring your risk-metrics in line.

This is what you can extend to the whole market. Rough calculation: On friday we had roughly 4k open interest at 880. meaning 400k shares. At 15:00 we were at 870, 30 minutes later at 888. Meaning that the hedge alone was responsible for 200k net shares bought (100k shares hedged at 87, 300k needed at 890) in 30 minutes - ONLY on the 880 strike. don't forget about double the interest at 890 and again at 900!
If you switch on the minute-chart and zoom out to see 11-16h you can see, that it escalated quadratically (aka: "the stock went parabolic").
What alleviated the pressure is that not everyone held the open calls from thursday afternoon (the basis for the OI i took), that many took profit on the way, etc.
What worsened the pressure was that many peeps watching the stock intensely piled in and bought 850, 880, 900 calls leading to even more delta-hedging neccessary.
Normally we see a hard hard crush on the SP as soon as the stock goes parabolic - breaking the trend. But yesterday against linear rising Nasdaq (look at it .. basically a straight line from 12:00 to end) it seems like the usual suspects were outgunned.

It is rare to see this. I even had powder on the sidelines because i was sure we would see a punch below 850.. but after the dip short before open it looks like all the powder for the punchdown was gone.

--

To come back to the question: Gamma-Squeezes are more likely to happen on fridays.
BUT i do not know how often other people update their hedges. Because every time you do it is potentially false (as on an oscillating SP it would be buy high & sell low). Maybe some who only trade monthly options rebalance and hedge only once per day, maybe they did not hedge yet because they still think that the bear-market is not over.. i don't know. But there can a reasonable argument be made that if they hedge only once a day or week that monday might see more of that.

Just look at the open-interest for the next few weeks and especially the monthly expiration in august. There are nearly no puts above 800. All calls. All needing to be hedged...

---
Note: all math is very crude approximate so you can do it in your head. I always do those things in my head & got quite good at it. It's more about the gist & intuition than accuracy.

 

[Max Plaid]

i miss him

Yeah, was a good team player

 

[Jim Holder]

21-day providing resistance on the 15-min chart:

 

[Jim Holder]

More from Piper Sandler:

"Our recent $TSLA-related conversations have not focused on modeling. This is because, in the immediate term, everyone seems focused on the June 13th shareholder meeting."

"If shareholders vote in favor of the board's recommendations, then we think TSLA will trade sideways at worst."

'The challenge lies in predicting the vote's outcome, given the high level of retail ownership exceeding 40% and mixed stances among institutional investors.'

"With a few institutions in both the 'yea' and 'nay' camps — we're not sure what will happen."

To mitigate risk, Piper Sandler says it's "tactically equal-weight" before the vote.

 

[Jim Holder]

So Lara wasn’t really lying

https://twitter.com/x/status/1798007748728365503

 

[Discoducky]

Long time Tesla hater Lora Kolodny is out with a story saying @elonmusk redirected Nvidia chips from Tesla to xAI. I can tell everyone is going to be talking about this one, so let's dig in.

The first thing to know about Lora is that she has been working closely with Tesla short sellers like my stalker Aaron Greenspan for years. She even helped spread accusations that I had child pornography when Tesla shorts were trying to smear me back in the day. Everything she writes should be taken with a huge grain of salt and she has often been wrong in the past. This time is no different.

Lora's evidence for this story is an internal Nvidia memo from December 2023 which said "Elon prioritizing X H100 GPU cluster deployment at X versus Tesla by redirecting 12k of shipping H100 GPUs originally slated for Tesla to X instead. In exchange, original X orders of 12k H100 slated for Jan and June to be redirected to Tesla"

The conclusion she draws from this is that Tesla is being ripped off at the expense of xAI. But it is already June now, so both companies have received the 12k GPUs. While she assumes that this is because he hates Tesla and wants to prioritize xAI, this is an assumption that excludes several more benign possibilities. For example, it's possible that Tesla was still setting up some of the existing H100s they received and were not ready to take delivery of more. It's possible that Tesla was under margin pressure and needed to spread out delivery over a longer time period to minimize the impact on cash flow. While many will rush to say Elon made a decision to harm Tesla we don't know all the factors that went into this decision and I'm not going to assume the worst just yet.

She then points to a memo that says their $10 billion in AI spending "conflicts with bookings and FY 2025 forecasts". But the Nvidia staffer who wrote the memo didn't realize that that $10 billion includes spending on Tesla's car inference computers as well as their own in house Dojo supercomputer.

Another point worth considering is that Tesla will use xAI language models in products like the Optimus robot and their in car voice assistant. Grok 1.5 vision looks like it could have powerful self-driving applications as well. So it is not just xAI vs Tesla — the models being produced will actually be useful to both companies.

From what I've heard, Tesla is building out training compute massively and is no longer as compute constrained as they were in the past. They have close to 40,000 H100s and are planning to expand to 85,000 by the end of the year. In addition their in house Dojo supercomputer is now in mass production and expanding rapidly.

From what I have heard from my sources at Nvidia, Tesla has ordered over 100,000 H200s from Nvidia that they will be taking delivery of over the next 12 months. Deliveries have already started.

Ahead of the vote on Musk's compensation, Tesla short sellers and their allies like Kolodny will be doing their best to make sure you hate Musk and think that he is ruining the company. The reality is that nobody except Musk could have pushed the company to deliver FSD 12.

Sadly many people will believe this story and repeat it as fact. But I have read Lora's story and see no solid evidence that Tesla isn't getting enough delivery chips because of xAI.

(Whole Mars)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1798007748728365503

 

[Jim Holder]

As we wait for the paint to dry (i.e., for TSLA to make a decent move) been passing the time and having fun scalping CC's from top wick to bottom wick.
Quite dependable actually (sadly).

 

[thenewguy1979]

Sold AAPL 192.5p on the dump this morning
Added more cheap call spread 195/200C for next week WWMC.

Done nothing on TSLA as the path is not clear yet.

 

[MP3Mike]

So Lara wasn’t really lying

Other than when she implied this would delay Tesla's AI/FSD plans because they get the chips later. But as Elon said, they wouldn't have been used yet anyhow, so there was no delay caused by re-prioritizing orders.

 

[Jim Holder]

Other than when she implied this would delay Tesla's AI/FSD plans because they get the chips later. But as Elon said, they wouldn't have been used yet anyhow, so there was no delay caused by re-prioritizing orders.

Agreed. The whole article was written with a negative tilt, as par for Lara K. The kernel though seems to be based on truth (someone keeps leaking...). Doesn't take much to make a mountain out of a molehill. The timing of releasing of these hit jobs is unforgivable IMO. They try to kill every glimmer of positivity with a hatchet. Like today we saw decent China numbers (15k).

 

[Jim Holder]

Bears ate, now turning gingerly bullish. Likely rangebound +/- $2 until a side gives way.

How to read the Contract Trade Statistics panel:

First line
Red dominates=Bearish
Green dominates=Bullish

Second line
Red dominates=Bearish
Green dominates=Bullish

Third line
Ignore (don't know if buy or sell)

Fourth line
Green dominates=Bearish
Red dominates=Bullish

Fifth line
Green dominates=Bearish
Red dominates=Bullish

Overall range 175-185 (red)

 

[Jim Holder]