Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[BornToFly]

I want to sell CSP for next week. I was hoping for a close around 175 today. What do you guys think? Will there be a dip on Monday?

 

[BornToFly]

I want to sell CSP for next week. I was hoping for a close around 175 today. What do you guys think? Will there be a dip on Monday?

Didn't sell the Puts. Usually we have a dip lower than the previous closing price, even if we go green on the day. Hopefully we dip to 175 or lower on Monday....

 

[Max Plaid]

$177.48 - amateurs!!

Cheers all... (yeah, I know, really need to get a table on this terrace...)

 

[Max Plaid]

Didn't sell the Puts. Usually we have a dip lower than the previous closing price, even if we go green on the day. Hopefully we dip to 175 or lower on Monday....

It's hard to do, but I'm thinking to just wait until Friday, then well a 0DTE strangle to bring in some beer money

 

[dl003]

Looking tighter everyday. Any breakout should knock our feet off as the recoiling is strong.

@dl003 - please share if you seen anything new based on this week PA. Thanks

View attachment 1054430

Busy today with kids. Was able to update charts on X.

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[tivoboy]

I am thinking the same… holding off on selling cc’s until the vote… UNLESS, we get an early week pump toward mid-190’s, could be an opportunity there to sell cc’s before the vote. But either way, will see how things play out before acting

I think AFTER the vote, there will not only SOME more clarity but even BETTER opportunities to either write -cc, or +p or -p with even better premium and confidence if not even odds of success. And also take advantage of misplaced positioning, IV or FOMO..

To maybe try and paraphrase @Yoona. Making money is #1, preserving capital is either 1.1 but certainly before #2

 

[tivoboy]

I am thinking the same… holding off on selling cc’s until the vote… UNLESS, we get an early week pump toward mid-190’s, could be an opportunity there to sell cc’s before the vote. But either way, will see how things play out before acting

If we get a pump to ~ $200, and premium for $210-$220 go to ~ 5% for near term expiration. I’ll sell that. There is certainly SOME, not a TON, but SOME Keyman risk here. But fundi’s is fundi’s and for the most part the near term should not/would not justify paying up NOW for something that really isn’t GOING to materialize till quite a bit later.

 

[tivoboy]

If the stars are aligned with cool CPI and rate cut pulling in.....

The job data, ECB cutes, are playing a huge factor going in. Recession signs are coming in.

End of day dump incoming....,.

There is no rate cut before Sept… that’s my marker, it’s on the table for all to see.

 

[tivoboy]

Well, with that dump we just had, I decided to go aggressive on 5x -p1200's @$40, HOWEVER, seems I had put in a sell already for 5x -p1150's @$15.1 (this when they were trading around $13), and that obviously triggered...

Still that's OK, but wanted to go for it a bit given that I was going to sit-out TSLA, but will probably play with an -ATM straddle or two just for shits'n'giggles

I find that even when there is a Big Mac worth of value involved (and in Max Plaid fashion it might just be a Dry Aged Wagyu beef, Shiitake Mushroom, Truffle infused, gold leaf, 29 grain chibata bun, hickory smoked, AI monitored 139 degree F (wait, let me get my calculator to find whatever C is) burger of value.

It does tend to sharpen the focus if not the mind. ;-). Bon Weekend all.

 

[Yoona]

I think AFTER the vote, there will not only SOME more clarity but even BETTER opportunities to either write -cc, or +p or -p with even better premium and confidence if not even odds of success. And also take advantage of misplaced positioning, IV or FOMO..

To maybe try and paraphrase @Yoona. Making money is #1, preserving capital is either 1.1 but certainly before #2

yes, and many times doing NOTHING is more profitable

 

[thenewguy1979]

yes, and many times doing NOTHING is more profitable

For TSLA it's a wait and see game now for Thursday.

Do you see anything in the charts for NVDA/SMCI next week Yoona. SMCI is hitting lower BB again.

 

[tivoboy]

yes, and many times doing NOTHING is more profitable

Patience is not inaction.

Bon Weekend!

 

[dl003]

Since the vote is in Thursday evening, some -c and -p I think make sense. Closing 1DTE. Semi FOTM is best to sidestep fakeouts before the event. My chart shows bullish structure going into Monday so Im in half size -c and full size -p.

 

[tivoboy]

Since the vote is in Thursday evening, some -c and -p I think make sense. Closing 1DTE. Semi FOTM is best to sidestep fakeouts before the event. My chart shows bullish structure going into Monday so Im in half size -c and full size -p.

Overall, there is bullish structure for the MARKET going into Monday and up to the FOMC event. RECENTLY, I dare say historically we’ve done some run up INTO the event… sometimes to the day/hour, sometimes to the day prior, sometimes just the begin of the week. So there isn’t a metric here to deploy other than YES, MONDAY could be a run up. I’ll be focusing on high falutin’ shares at this point and selling calls or selling positions if there is some 2-5% dislocation from Friday. AAPL could be a nice market mover. There are a lot of 2nd derivatives here that can participate.

But I wouldn’t wait it out till FOMC day. IMO, it’s just not going to happen, but if the machines think, or want YOU to think that it could happen - get ahead of them..play THEM…”earn this”. Take the money that is on the table and go grab a chimay or Amstel, or Kistler or Mountain Dew.. Taking money from the man is sweeter than Vermont maple syrup. ;-0

 

[Max Plaid]

Since the vote is in Thursday evening, some -c and -p I think make sense. Closing 1DTE. Semi FOTM is best to sidestep fakeouts before the event. My chart shows bullish structure going into Monday so Im in half size -c and full size -p.

Hmmm, I had to run this through ChatGPT 4o...

"It sounds like you are referring to options trading strategies around an event happening on Thursday evening. Here's a breakdown of what you're doing based on your description:

- **-c**: This likely refers to selling calls.
- **-p**: This likely refers to selling puts.
- **1DTE**: This stands for "1 Day to Expiration," implying that you're dealing with options that expire the next day.
- **Semi FOTM**: This might mean "Semi Far Out of The Money," referring to options that are not at-the-money but a bit out of the money.
- **Bullish structure going into Monday**: You see a bullish trend in the chart leading up to Monday.

Given this, your strategy seems to involve:

1. Selling calls with half the usual size (probably because you're somewhat cautious about the potential upside).
2. Selling puts with full size (indicating stronger confidence in a bullish move or expecting support at lower levels).

### Potential Risks and Considerations:
1. **Fakeouts**: Since you mentioned fakeouts, it makes sense to be cautious with your sizing, as the market can have deceptive moves before a significant event.
2. **Bullish Structure**: Your chart analysis showing a bullish structure is crucial. Ensure that your technical indicators and patterns support this outlook.
3. **Event Impact**: Consider the potential impact of the event on Thursday evening. Events can lead to increased volatility, and it’s essential to monitor how the market is pricing in the event leading up to it.

### Example Setup:
- **Sell Call Options (half size)**:
- Choose a strike price slightly above the current market price (out of the money).
- Ensure the expiry aligns with your expected timeline, possibly 1DTE for immediate impact.

- **Sell Put Options (full size)**:
- Choose a strike price slightly below the current market price (out of the money).
- Same expiry as the calls to align with the strategy.

### Managing the Trade:
- **Monitor the Market**: Continuously monitor the market for any signs of the trend changing or unexpected news affecting your positions.
- **Adjust as Needed**: Be prepared to adjust your positions if the market moves significantly against you.

Would you like any specific calculations, or further details on managing this options strategy?"

 

[thenewguy1979]

Overall, there is bullish structure for the MARKET going into Monday and up to the FOMC event. RECENTLY, I dare say historically we’ve done some run up INTO the event… sometimes to the day/hour, sometimes to the day prior, sometimes just the begin of the week. So there isn’t a metric here to deploy other than YES, MONDAY could be a run up. I’ll be focusing on high falutin’ shares at this point and selling calls or selling positions if there is some 2-5% dislocation from Friday. AAPL could be a nice market mover. There are a lot of 2nd derivatives here that can participate.

But I wouldn’t wait it out till FOMC day. IMO, it’s just not going to happen, but if the machines think, or want YOU to think that it could happen - get ahead of them..play THEM…”earn this”. Take the money that is on the table and go grab a chimay or Amstel, or Kistler or Mountain Dew.. Taking money from the man is sweeter than Vermont maple syrup. ;-0

Thanks professor tivoboy. I'm hopefully well positioned for Monday AAPL bounced. Spread already in green since opening.

Not planning to hold anything into FOMC. That GME fiasco today was an eye opener. Lots of bag holders unfortunately.

Good Weekend all.

 

[dl003]

Hmmm, I had to run this through ChatGPT 4o...

"It sounds like you are referring to options trading strategies around an event happening on Thursday evening. Here's a breakdown of what you're doing based on your description:

- **-c**: This likely refers to selling calls.
- **-p**: This likely refers to selling puts.
- **1DTE**: This stands for "1 Day to Expiration," implying that you're dealing with options that expire the next day.
- **Semi FOTM**: This might mean "Semi Far Out of The Money," referring to options that are not at-the-money but a bit out of the money.
- **Bullish structure going into Monday**: You see a bullish trend in the chart leading up to Monday.

Given this, your strategy seems to involve:

1. Selling calls with half the usual size (probably because you're somewhat cautious about the potential upside).
2. Selling puts with full size (indicating stronger confidence in a bullish move or expecting support at lower levels).

### Potential Risks and Considerations:
1. **Fakeouts**: Since you mentioned fakeouts, it makes sense to be cautious with your sizing, as the market can have deceptive moves before a significant event.
2. **Bullish Structure**: Your chart analysis showing a bullish structure is crucial. Ensure that your technical indicators and patterns support this outlook.
3. **Event Impact**: Consider the potential impact of the event on Thursday evening. Events can lead to increased volatility, and it’s essential to monitor how the market is pricing in the event leading up to it.

### Example Setup:
- **Sell Call Options (half size)**:
- Choose a strike price slightly above the current market price (out of the money).
- Ensure the expiry aligns with your expected timeline, possibly 1DTE for immediate impact.

- **Sell Put Options (full size)**:
- Choose a strike price slightly below the current market price (out of the money).
- Same expiry as the calls to align with the strategy.

### Managing the Trade:
- **Monitor the Market**: Continuously monitor the market for any signs of the trend changing or unexpected news affecting your positions.
- **Adjust as Needed**: Be prepared to adjust your positions if the market moves significantly against you.

Would you like any specific calculations, or further details on managing this options strategy?"

thats very impressive. Im sorry I dont realize Im turning into Kevin Malone as I age.

But yeah, since the vote happens just 8 hours before weekly expiration, playing & closing just before Thursday close can burn most of extrinsic value off, even with a potential spike in IV.

 

[dl003]

We are so close to the Apex now, that if you are positioned OTM enough, if by Thursday close a break to either side has not been proven to be a fakeout, it'll likely be real. The key here is how OTM you have to be for your thumb to be bigger than the mushroom cloud. Dont want to get burned but dont want to get faked out either. Absent fakeouts, I think this 176 177 zone will keep acting as a magnet.
-195C and -165P for me.

 

[Yoona]

For TSLA it's a wait and see game now for Thursday.

Do you see anything in the charts for NVDA/SMCI next week Yoona. SMCI is hitting lower BB again.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1799131717745385632