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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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So I did some fun portfolio performance analysis this morning to try to better establish the level of risk and reward I have been taking with my strategy. (I've been primarily trading NVDA and it was much easier to evaluate than TSLA.)

So in a wild bull run, I started trading NVDA when it was $722 in mid-February, so up roughly $500 or 67%. For the number of shares I could have purchased at the time (cash and some margin), my unrealized gain would have been equal to what I realized mostly selling -P's. But, in the process I also acquired the same number of shares that I would have been able to buy at the beginning, with a cost basis of $900. Essentially I made an extra 50% return selling puts. My total return is equal to 45% of my capital trading reserve (for lack of a better term-- the total money I am willing to spend buying shares to cover assignment) over four months.

TSLA wasn't as good. I am essentially even with the stock trading flat. IV has been too low to justify selling options for me; there are so many extra variables that come into play when you can't take advantage of theta decay.

My one-off trade in SMCI was far too stressful for me. The quick gain in LULU for one week was actually ~5% of my total gains for the period. I scalped a little on AAPL, but no noteworthy income.

Just thought I would share; people talk a lot about individual trades but total performance has been harder to find. In the end, the last four months options performance is roughly my annual spending or annual tax bill in a period the portfolio would have otherwise been fairly flat. I just wish I had started doing it a year or two ago rather than watch my stocks go almost nowhere. I think the stock portion of my portfolio over the last two years is the worst 2-year period I have had in 25 years!
 
For the weekend:

How do you explain this?

Apple, $AAPL, has $380 billion in annual revenue and $125 billion in annual EBITDA with a $3 trillion market cap.

Nvidia, $NVDA, has $80 billion in annual revenue and $50 billion in annual EBTIDA with a $3 trillion market cap.

In other words, Nvidia and Apple have the same market cap but Apple has 5 TIMES more revenue.

Apple also has roughly 2.5 TIMES the EBITDA of Nvidia.

Is Apple too cheap or is Nvidia too expensive?

The most logical answer is that the market highly values growth.

Nvidia’s is trading like its growth potential is almost limitless.

Yet another reason AI companies are seeing massive premiums in this market.

(Credit: Kobeissi)

What's mind blowing is I posted a chart a few weeks ago that shows why NVDA has a potential upside of 100% in a 9 month window based on *fundamentals*, not TA. That implies a 2400 SP within 12 months.
 
Yes - over the years as the tranches were achieved, Tesla recorded $2.3B in charges (stock based compensation - all non-GAAP & non-cash charges).
If the current comp gets re-instated as if nothing happened, then no impact to P&L.

If they need to void old comp and re--issue a new comp (with same award), we could see a $54B non-GAAP, non-cash charge ($56B charge less $2B previously charged).
If this were to happen, since it is non-GAAP and non-cash, I believe analysts would exclude the charge from their models.
Are there no tax costs to Tesla (reducing income) if such a change happens?
 
Yikes, that would make it a $6 trillion dollar stock, correct?

Yeah, crazy idea. But the idea they could have a 3T valuation seemed crazy earlier this year, yet here we are. What we need are: 1) earnings and growth keep at this pace, 2) continued bull market for the macros. If interest rates ease towards end of this year or early next, that could create the perfect storm.
 
What's mind blowing is I posted a chart a few weeks ago that shows why NVDA has a potential upside of 100% in a 9 month window based on *fundamentals*, not TA. That implies a 2400 SP within 12 months.
Similar thoughts here:

Analysis focuses on the 10,000-foot view of how NVDA reached $3 trillion today and how we will reach $10 trillion by 2030 or sooner.

 

Did Elon just leak the results? 😲

“So far, roughly 90% of retail shareholders who have voted have voted in favor of both resolutions. The public sentiment is unequivocally supportive.”

Anyone know the ratio of retail/institution? This says 46%. If so seems the vote is in the bag with Baron and several other big funds voting in favor and we take off Monday?

UPDATE: Nevermind, it only means 90% of those who voted have voted in favor. Not that 90% of retail shareholders did. So it’s not telling much.

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@Jim Holder is this guy one of your relatives who just upvoted my post?
Screenshot_20240608_211528_Outlook.jpg
What's causing the math problem I think is the horrible way GAAP accounting works.
When issued in 2018, the Black Scholes Model that is used to determine expense in the P&L computed that the expense was $2.3B.
If you take the same award today and use the Black Scholes model with the same strike price (while the stock is at $177), you get an expense of $56B or so.
GAAP is unusual in that once you determine the expense in 2018 for $2.3B, this expense never gets adjusted up as the value of the award increases.

What drives some people crazy (when it comes to tax fairness) is that Tesla would expense $2.3B on the 10K income state but take a $56B deduction on the tax return (though there are some limits for high executive compensation on the tax return).
Thank you!
As soon as you said Black Scholes, my light bulb went off. The real and only cost to shareholders is the 10% dilution. the SBC expense using that formula simply tries to estimate the cost in term of $. I was under the impression the formula used was something else more rudimentary. And of course WS is going to back that out as usual. So it remains Ms. Denholm was not telling the whole truth. Yeah, it will cost extra, but not really. No bueno.
 
Did Elon just leak the results? 😲

“So far, roughly 90% of retail shareholders who have voted have voted in favor of both resolutions. The public sentiment is unequivocally supportive.”

Anyone know the ratio of retail/institution? This says 46%. If so seems the vote is in the bag with Baron and several other big funds voting in favor and we take off Monday?

UPDATE: Nevermind, it only means 90% of those who voted have voted in favor. Not that 90% of retail shareholders did. So it’s not telling much.

View attachment 1054885
From 73% yes in 2018 to just a majority (50+) requirement- I like the odds of elons comp plan passing …
 
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