jeewee3000
Active Member
Depends if you expect the stock to drop or gain today. Open the BCS on a local top if you can.
But IV won't rise much today either, so to maximize theta I actually would open the BCS immediately on open.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
But IV won't rise much today either, so to maximize theta I actually would open the BCS immediately on open.
If the "sell the news" low sticks near this premarket of $850-ish, that would be just fine with me.
Waiting to see what a 700/800 put spread is worth post-earnings...
Waiting to see what a 700/800 put spread is worth post-earnings...
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
So is the consensus "not advice" to wait for IV to jump before we open more BPS/BCS/IC ?
I'm looking at premiums for 10/29 for things I would consider "safe" and I'm not impressed with the premiums, but perhaps the last few weeks have spoiled me.
IV has been higher the past couple of weeks (October) because of 3 binary events happening - P&D report, Annual Meeting and finally last nights Earnings call.
IV does not have another binary event catalyst on the horizon this year, unless another event is announced.
So we will be trending higher or lower IV based on movement and outside news sources.
Take that as you will, I was doing rather well with low IV, got spoiled with higher IV these past few weeks but will resume being happy with lower IV and selling both sides of my IC's and not just the BPS and some LCC's again.
Cheers
corduroy
Active Member
I think we were getting spoiled. I was hitting at least 3x my weekly target the last 4 weeks, now this week I'm hoping to just hit my target. I also am finding myself not wanting to raise my short strikes much to keep up with the rise in SP, so staying further OTM, which is also contributing to my lower income. I need to see if these mid 800's stick for a while before committing much to higher short strikes.
even my 10/29 BPS are at 60% profit
dc_h
Active Member
This is not how "sell the news" is supposed to go!
I have orders. They're getting farther and farther from any possible execution!
I have orders. They're getting farther and farther from any possible execution!
AquaY
Member
Now to keep this on trading TSLA options, seems my BPS I sold yesterday of +690/-740 is up 48%
That's what I thought would happen after the good earnings report. That the stock would fall some but not much and that DOTM BPS would lose premiums today as the stock did not crash.
Sadly I only did it for 30 contracts since I was worried I could be wrong in a huge way.
Still running numbers to decide on my other trades for 10/29.
I have decided to stay away from Calls though. I am overall bullish
OK, I can't bring myself to sell a put spread within $3 of an all-time high. But calls are feeling pretty dubious at the moment too. What the....?
AquaY
Member
Sometimes doing nothing is a good choice
The closest to advice I have (though still NOT-ADVICE) - one of my best techniques for getting into trouble and losing money is to chase a premium or a share price.
Which leads to ...
I haven't started looking at the option chain this morning, but between other posters (such as yourself) and the big move to start the morning, my guess is that I won't be all that excited with the 10/29 options either.
My personal solution is that I try to do my personal projections of annual results assuming 10 weeks in the quarter and 40 weeks in the year. I want to have permission from myself to not be invested at any point in time. That has mostly translated into days out of the market, and with something expiring each week anyway. But I still want permission to not chase a premium or the share price (getting too close to the money), and even to just sit out when I'm not really sure what will be happening.
OMG .. i was SO happy that most of my -900c closed at open @0.9 instantly (50% profit target).. only hold 10 of those until tomorrow. they are now @5.60...
Also closed my ironfly at 45% profit (opened yesterday, iv-crush killed 40% of the value at open. 10/10, would play again!).
I opened an experimental 900/800 for next week yesterday to get some theta, but also because of FOMO into earnings ..
closed half for 25% profit. rest is currently at 50% profit. Will close that as soon as we encounter resistance & reverse down again.
Also opened 850/750 for next week at open, already 30% gain on that one due to the run-up.
I expected the several upgrades in SP by the analysts to be effective monday - and not today. I thought MM would try to control it down to 850..
Took profits left & right and continue to change my positions (e.g. i have nov 760c for backing covered calls like the 900) with either rolling them up or out.
Rationale: rolling up = lower delta on downturn, but higher theta. rolling out = lower theta, higher vega, but also lower delta until further out.
I mean .. i want lower delta until friday, but then higher delta again. This way i "stay in" the position, but i take e.g. 0.8 delta on the way up, but only 0.6 on a possible way down (& 0.6 up if the downturn won't happen).
edit: as we stayed @885 for a while i rolled the nov 26 760c to nov 26 800c. Delta from 0.85 -> 0.67, theta 0.35 -> 0.5, vega 0.6 -> 1. No need to take more risks on such a good day. And i am over my old greed-habit wanting to have 6-figure-gain on such days .. This can cost A LOT ..
Also closed my ironfly at 45% profit (opened yesterday, iv-crush killed 40% of the value at open. 10/10, would play again!).
I opened an experimental 900/800 for next week yesterday to get some theta, but also because of FOMO into earnings ..
closed half for 25% profit. rest is currently at 50% profit. Will close that as soon as we encounter resistance & reverse down again.
Also opened 850/750 for next week at open, already 30% gain on that one due to the run-up.
I expected the several upgrades in SP by the analysts to be effective monday - and not today. I thought MM would try to control it down to 850..
Took profits left & right and continue to change my positions (e.g. i have nov 760c for backing covered calls like the 900) with either rolling them up or out.
Rationale: rolling up = lower delta on downturn, but higher theta. rolling out = lower theta, higher vega, but also lower delta until further out.
I mean .. i want lower delta until friday, but then higher delta again. This way i "stay in" the position, but i take e.g. 0.8 delta on the way up, but only 0.6 on a possible way down (& 0.6 up if the downturn won't happen).
edit: as we stayed @885 for a while i rolled the nov 26 760c to nov 26 800c. Delta from 0.85 -> 0.67, theta 0.35 -> 0.5, vega 0.6 -> 1. No need to take more risks on such a good day. And i am over my old greed-habit wanting to have 6-figure-gain on such days ..
This can cost A LOT ..
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closed my bps (-800/+700) for this week, it was about 90% profit.
premiums for next week are lousy.. now I want that one red day so I can sell bps for next week.. maybe tomorrow.
premiums for next week are lousy.. now I want that one red day so I can sell bps for next week.. maybe tomorrow.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I think that one of my takeaways from this earnings report, and how to set my own trades around it, is that I should have been selling 10/29 BPS yesterday instead of 10/22. I would have, in effect, been locking in the relatively high IV leading into earnings for an extra week.
The math I'm seeing right now - there won't be a big difference in the end result between this week and next week combined - maybe $1 in earned result? Still - that's 1% ($1 out of $100 wide spread) and an extra point here and there does goose the end result pretty nicely.
The math I'm seeing right now - there won't be a big difference in the end result between this week and next week combined - maybe $1 in earned result? Still - that's 1% ($1 out of $100 wide spread) and an extra point here and there does goose the end result pretty nicely.
I have ~40 calls dated either nov 26 or dec 17. This takes advantage in an uptick in IV, uptick in SP & gets me into no problems when i sell CC against them basically forming a bull call spread. Either the CC pay for the theta the calls burn, or i have to sadly release them for what? 50% profit? .. oh my god, i'm gonna die not taking full gains!! /s
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